Regular readers and listeners should remember the assessment of the situation that I laid out (and expressed) last winter. One of the theses was: “If by May the necessary nationwide measures for the successful conduct of the war are not taken, we will not be able to win this war.”
I state: NO MEASURES HAVE BEEN TAKEN. Neither organizational nor personnel. The goals of the war are not defined, the understanding that “this war - until the complete victory of one of the parties” - also did not arise among the inhabitants of the Pink Pony Planet. Accordingly, since there is no goal, there is no strategy. There is no strategy - there is no conscious work for its implementation. And the enemy initially has such a strategy and he implements it with all his might. More and more successfully, as the Kremlin “plays giveaway” with inexplicable rapture and childish confidence in the final “negotiation” comfortable for the elderly Ponies, Elephants and Unicorns.
Now we need to think about how to save the state, country and people in a situation of imminent military defeat.
And, yes, - even for a “worthy non-fatal defeat” (in which the enemies will be forced to abandon their plans for the complete fragmentation of Russia and the elimination of its sovereignty), it will be necessary to fight long and hard. Harder and longer than it could have been if they had initially fought with the goal of decisively winning. And the longer the inhabitants of the PRP will remain in the “sweet languor” of confidence in their calm and happy old age (which a significant part of the VIP officials have long come) - the less likely it is that, as a result, the state ship of Russia will be able to get out of the military storm and the systemic crisis, without sinking (after a long and bloody turmoil) into History.
Perun: Ukraine’s Planned Counteroffensive - force readiness, leaks, politics & expectations
The much expected Ukrainian 2023 counteroffensive (sequel to the well known trilogy in 2022 “Kyiv” “Kharkiv” & “Kherson”) has, alongside Bakhmut, been a major topic of speculation and discussion for months now. As a topic it is so heavily debated that there isn’t even agreement over whether or not it has started, is yet to start, or will never start at all.
For the most part, while some preparations are obvious, Ukraine has succeeded in keeping its actual plans secret, and even a leak of classified American documents did little to definitively answer the question of where and when Kyiv is likely to strike to attempt to reclaim the initiative after Russia’s Winter and early Spring efforts.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JIYC_WUSw4c