Posted on 02/27/2022 4:52:35 AM PST by Kaslin
A few caveats. All I write here is based on limited information on conditions on the ground, predictions are dicey because I do not know exactly what Putin is thinking, and let me say clearly I do support Ukraine and I loathe the Putin regime.
Some Misconceptions
I think the whole “Putin is afraid of Ukraine as a post-Soviet democratic example to Russia” is exaggerated, if not plain wrong. Very, very few Russians want Russia to be like Ukraine, because Ukraine is a poor country burdened by grossly ineffective government. And note: there are about a million Ukrainians who live and work in Russia, economic migrants. There are basically no Russian citizens moving to Ukraine for work. And while both countries suffer from corruption, the Russian state performs far better and the economy is much stronger.
Likewise, I think the “Putin is a dictator, Ukraine is a flowering democracy” narrative is mostly wrong. Putin is an autocrat, elections are not fair, but Russia is not a dictatorship. There are opposition parties and there is still an opposition press. But the fact is, Putin remains popular. Ukraine does have more democratic elections, but discontent is high, people are cynical about politics.
So What’s Next?
So what’s going on right now? My sense is Ukraine cannot hold out long, its military is simply overwhelmed by the Russian war machine. And what does Putin want? Basically, to strip Ukraine of its sovereignty and make it a vassal state. That means that Kyiv recognize the annexation of Crimeaand the “independence” of Donesk and Lugansk. It means a treaty obligation to sever ties with NATO and the EU. And it means Versailles style limitations on Ukraine’s military. Oh, and the installation of a pro-Moscow puppet government.
President Zelensky has two options. Maybe his government can hold onto Western Ukraine in the hope that Russian occupation of the rest of Ukraine will become too costly for Moscow. I do not think this option holds great promise. More likely, he will have to swallow the bitter pill of submitting to Putin’s ultimatum. In one sense, much of what Putin demands is mere recognition of present realities. NATO and EU membership were pipe dreams all along, and Crimea was lost forever. But of course Putin’s demands go further, beyond what any sovereign country could submit to without occupation.
But Ukraine is coming under occupation, its two largest cities including its capital will be under Russian control within days. I wish it weren’t so, but I think capitulation now is better than capitulation later. At least less blood will be shed.
God bless Ukraine. But that matters not, when Ukraine has no real allies and limited capacity to resist naked Russian aggression. And damn Putin and Russia. And that matters not as well, sanctions will hurt but will not be decisive. It’s all a terrible tragedy, and senseless. Ukraine represented no real threat to Russia, this war is the product of Putin’s oversized ego, his paranoia, and a bloated sense of Russian pride.
And the irony? Putin has created a neighbor whose 44 million people will bitterly hate Russia, forever. Other post-Soviet states like Uzbekistan will regard Moscow with renewed suspicion. And NATO is now united like no time since the Cold War. The conquest of Ukraine will be a tactical victory but a strategic defeat.
The author might be looking at it pragmatically, but he’s writing it from a comfortable spot in a country that is not under threat of occupation. I don’t see the Ukrainians being so willing to give up, at least not without considerably more pain. They might not fight to the last man, but I don’t see them as being anywhere near the point of considering surrender.
Russian stooge based in Moscow.
Every day that Ukraine holds out is another day that Putin and all the Russian military machine is exposed as the inept invaders they are and the more Russian bodies are piled up.
I hope China's watching.
If the Russian forces do not occupy Karkiv and Kiev by then, Putin will have to change tactics.
It is not clear what is happening on the ground.
In my opinion, this is Biden's war, and all those who supported him and voted for him.
This war would never have happened if President Trump remained in office.
Biden looks far worse than Chamberlain, in this instance.
Rooting for David, against Goliath.
“In my opinion, this is Biden’s war, and all those who supported him and voted for him.”
Disagree. Biden is doing everything that Putin wants. We are still buying oil from Russia with no plans to stop. The Biden admin is doing nothing to oppose Putin.
“Russian stooge based in Moscow.”
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Unfortunately, for being informed’s sake, you’re only going to see propaganda that is supportive - news that looks good for Ukraine in this war, the Media-Political Industrial Complex isn’t going to allow contrary information to reach you.
News & information from Russia is being cut off by the govt/digital dictator masters of the universe (and we know how that goes). I don’t know what, if any, Russian news sites you may be able to access, the censors are closing in.
e.g. “Russia Times” isn’t working for me, your mileage may vary:
https://www.rt.com
Disagree. Biden is doing everything that Putin wants. We are still buying oil from Russia with no plans to stop. The Biden admin is doing nothing to oppose Putin.
You and I are saying the same thing, with different words.
Biden brought about this war by being weak. He essentially encouraged Putin to attack.
Is he doing what Putin wants... maybe... it appears so.
It would not surprise me if Biden gave his blessing for Putin to attack.
One of the few correct analyses of the situation. Excellent and truthful.
The Ukrainians hate the though of Russian occupation. They have suffered under the thumb of Russia for nearly a century and have finally gotten out from under that thumb and the memory of the thumb is still fresh and they will not relent easily. Taking out over 3000 Russian invaders will have an effect back home. That many mothers not getting their sons back will make waves. Two military air transports with some 300 soldiers each were shot down, that can’t be good for morale. European neighbors are sending rockets, anti tank weapons and other ammunition to help fight Russia. It is not as simple as Russia thought it would be, I am rooting for Ukraine.
Losing so many soldiers may actually strengthen the resolve of Putin and the generals but if the losses keep piling up they will have to stop.
“The conquest of Ukraine will be a tactical victory but a strategic defeat.”
It COULD be a strategic defeat - that’s up to the West.
If the West responds with a massive military build up and drill baby drill, then it would be a strategic defeat.
If the West goes no further than toothless sanctions, and then goes back to having Drag Queen Parades in its military and importing even more, expensive, energy from Russia, then I’d say it’s a strategic victory for Putin.
So far, not good, but one ray of hope today - Germany finally figured out that their demented fantasy of a world without war is not happening, and they’ve decided to FINALLY listen to Trump and START the re-creation of their military.
Didn’t work with Ulysses E. Grant. He was actually voted in as President. Or, maybe he too was Bidened into office. Long time ago so I don’t know.
Ukraine is an overwhelmingly corrupt and and immoral country, or so I’ve been told by Ukrainians themselves who have fled to America for peace and prosperity. A country full of Hunter Bidens.
For decades after the Soviet Union took over Lithuania, guerrilla groups of “Forest Brothers” maintained an armed resistance, without external support.
The Ukraine is a much larger nation.
One of the few correct analyses of the situation.
+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
I agree. We have a natural feeling for the underdog and tend to be too optimistic about foriegn policy. The Russians may stumble and take longer to do what Putin wants but they will take over this country like they did in Georgia and Crimea. Some will continue to fight but they won’t get their country back.
My hope is the bad taste this will leave for the Democratic world strategy won’t be gone by 2024. As someone else said it is a strategic error for Russia only if the West stands firm.
Expect the Democrats to sneak a bunch of stuff through while everyone is distracted by Ukraine.
Well he gets it partly right but the Ukraine is no democracy. Its currently a vassal state of the NWO. They are controlled by the EU and NATO. The corruption is total. Money laundering, child trafficking, drug and gun running. The Ukrainian people will be a lot better off once Putin’s forces complete this operation. He will make a deal with Zelensky and go home.
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