Posted on 12/29/2021 5:12:55 AM PST by blam
We have previously warned about a whopping food crisis and supply problems in the fertilizer market. Well, now is worse because that was BEFORE we had the natural gas crisis. Why is that important?
Natural gas is THE critical input into making fertilizer. Urea is essentially ammonia in solid state, the process of which entails reacting ammonia with CO2. And we all now know — thanks to the climate nazis — that CO2 is currently the devil. The problem of course is that with no natural gas there is no urea, and with no urea there is no fertilizer. And with no fertilizer… well, we will eat each other.
Here are the spot urea prices.
Something else that we had noted some time back (in Korea) but which now seems like a larger problem.
Here is an article about an Australian farmer who warns the urea supply crisis could halt normal life within weeks.
Here’s what he says:
‘Not only will we not be able to grow cattle and we will not be able to grow food and we will not be able to grow grain or anything like that, but even if we could, we can’t move it, because we can’t turn a wheel in a truck because we have no Adblue,’ [AdBlue is needed for diesel vehicles — half of all trucks on Australian roads run on diesel
As of February we might not have a truck on the road in Australia, we might not have a train on the tracks.
‘So quite literally the whole country comes to a standstill as of February.’
The farmer then, goes on to say:
‘Go and have a look in your cupboard and go and have a look in your fridge and I guarantee just about every single item there, at some point, urea has been used to produce that item, whether it’s a steak or a salad or a can of baked beans.
Moving to Europe, we have a full blown energy crisis unfolding there, made worse by increasingly more destructive policies by the pointy shoes (let’s produce more solar and wind when it’s proven to be both inadequate and massively costly) and a supply chain crisis.
Take a look at European energy prices.
So here we’re now witnessing the beginnings of what promises to be a storm. Think cold and hungry and you’ve got the right picture.
That electricity comes largely from natural gas, and that natural gas comes from those peaky Russkies.
European Gas Prices Surge Above 100 Euros With Eyes on Russia.
Europe’s benchmark natural gas price rose above 100 euros, or $190 per barrel of oil equivalent, ahead of a series of auctions for pipeline capacity that are seen as a test of Russia’s willingness to ease a supply crunch.
The day-ahead auctions for space on Ukrainian pipelines and capacity at Germany’s Mallnow compressor station will provide a strong signal for how serious Russia is about increasing flows to the west. While the region’s biggest supplier has said it aims to keep refilling European storage sites until the end of December, it hasn’t used short-term auctions to ship more fuel.
So right now we have this situation which is going to make your head spin. Europe is out of gas. They’ve spent the better part of the last decade getting rid of their own domestic energy, replacing it with baubles and toys, which, while scoring big on the woke scorecard, have proven abysmal at producing… well, electricity.
With Europeans now cold and very shortly hungry we are due for a war. Remember that historically, the spiraling food prices have caused civil unrest, revolutions, and wars. On the plus side, it has been known to also cure obesity, so there’s that.
Back to urea and food. You can’t make fertilizer without urea and natural gas. As the price of either of these goes higher (both are), it significantly impacts the price of fertilizer. The price of fertilizer impacts in turn the price of food. This is because fert is the second largest cost component of most agricultural production. The first being… you guessed it, diesel.
We now have a bull market not just in urea, but in natural gas, and to top it off in diesel too.
To expect food prices to remain stable when the ingredients to producing it are all rocketing higher impresses us as comically stupid.
I read an article quoting a declassified intelligence report that said “The Arab Spring” was caused by a sudden ten percent hike in food prices in the Arab countries. (At any given time, a ten percent hike is all it takes to cause severe distress and starvation in poor countries.) It had nothing to do with a desire for political freedom. The politics was grafted on to the food riots by people with a political agenda. Notice that Muslim countries artificially keep food and fuel prices as low as they can afford. That’s not out of any altruistic reason. It’s so they don’t get overthrown.
Cargill Dayton is paying $6,2475/BU for corn today.
That is not good for consumers Maybe We should become Vegan?
No city can feed, fuel or power itself.
The asymmetric tactics are readily inferred.
The manufacturered National Gas crisis means fertilizer plants are closed across the globe. 1/2 of 3rd world agriculture depends upon imported fertilizer. Next year’s harvest will be bad. The year after’s will be a disaster.
FAMINE is coming on a Global scale.
The vast majority of land in third world countries requires a huge input in fertilizer and insecticide. Only seven percent of Chinese land is even arable. The United States has been the world’s largest supplier of grains since the end of WWII. When a substantial amount of that got turned very expensively into alcohol that caused a worldwide spike in grain prices leading directly to the Arab Spring. American policy affects the entire world. As a Mexican once told me, “When America gets the sniffles, Mexico gets the flu.” I think that’s true worldwide.
SO, this is why China has already stocked up on grains.
The question is HOW DO I/WE make money off of this?
Do we buy Monsanto stock? Archer Daniels Midland? General Mills?
Also, do I buy a years worth of granola bars? Prince spaghetti? Taco Shells? (sarc)
I bought Bunge stock and when it doubled, sold it.
Perhaps you are a little late in asking. The stocks started up in the fall of 2019
It has been widely reported that the vast China food stocks were damaged during the floods and rain that induced mold and other such problems.
Who doesn't have a years supply of Taco Shells?
Actually, I think I have a couple boxes of Old Elpaso taco dinner that have been in the cupboard for 5 years or more. I moved to this house 10 years ago. I do not think I brought them with me BUT I could be wrong.
I always have 10+ boxes of pasta. I buy it whenever it goes on sale for $1.25/lb box for Barilla.
I remember about 60 years ago, farmers used very little fertilizer except for the use of manure. Back then they also rotated crops in a way it would replenish the earth with nutrients. Now days they plant the same no till crops year after year in the same fields but depend on commercial fertilizers.
They are forced to depend on commercial fertilizers because the ENVIROS demanded that manure NOT be put back onto the land.
Now, manure in dairy farms must be stored in large tanks as a slurry, and removed by a trucking service.
I was raised on a Wisconsin dairy farm, and we put all our animal droppings-—cows—horses—pigs—back onto the land.
I do not remember Dad buying any commercial fertilizer.
Maybe not. We have the Co2 in atmosphere, which does incredible for plant growth!
Thanks to Co2 we will not need so much fertilization!
Our planet is massively greening, Our yields are also breaking all the records!
The guano trade began on three tiny Peruvian islands in the Pacific, and their product reached farmers’ fields around the world.
Ping (fertilizers and natural gas)
Plants need CO2 AND “food” (fertilizer, manure, organics-rich mineralized soil, etc.) for their metabolism. Just like they need water. None of these inputs can take the place of the other, all are needed. Air - food - water.
Water? You mean like from the toilet?
Toilet water is ideal for plants minus the possible pathogenic bacteria and viri. human excretions contain high levels of uric acid which when exposed to air and co2 turns into urea the very same urea this article is about. In addition human solid wastes are very rich in phosphorus and potassium both needed for vigorous plant growth. In the not so far past human wastes were used for food crops in north America and are still used in Asia due to the aforementioned facts. I know of a couple of growers of cannabis that have composting toilets for the property and workers and that is used exclusively to grow high end organic cannabis it thrives on human excretions
For plants, that’d be ok. Also certain dogs cannot resist toilet water, I believe... ;-)
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