Trump is doubtlessly aware of COVID vaccine hesitancy in his base. There are two possibilities: (1) Trump is proud of the speed in which his administration cleared regulatory barriers to get the vaccines approved and widely distributed. (2) The Deep State really has damaging evidence against Trump or his family members. Someone with a lot of power or representing them made an offer Trump couldn't refuse. Clowns like Adam Schiff may bilovate and bluster, but the DOJ and New York authorities will not indict as long as Trump promotes the jabs.
Assuming he runs for the Republican nomination for the Presidency, Trump may figure that his opponents would be RINOs like Liz Cheney or Chris Christie, who would be wiped out in the early primaries. The vax issue may be gone by late 2023, and Trump figures it will be a nonissue when he goes up against Biden or whomever in 2024.
The white evangelical Christians in those Trump states you listed aren’t going to win or lose an election for him. Neither are those secular pagans in the Biden states you listed.
I suspect Trump is out there pushing these vaccines because he recognizes an unfortunate political reality: the swing voter who cost him the 2020 election and may help him win in 2024 is a suburban dingbat Karen with an IQ of 90 who wears a mask 24 hours a day and has to be constantly reminded that it’s not a good idea to send her children to school with plastic bags tied over their heads.