The white evangelical Christians in those Trump states you listed aren’t going to win or lose an election for him. Neither are those secular pagans in the Biden states you listed.
I suspect Trump is out there pushing these vaccines because he recognizes an unfortunate political reality: the swing voter who cost him the 2020 election and may help him win in 2024 is a suburban dingbat Karen with an IQ of 90 who wears a mask 24 hours a day and has to be constantly reminded that it’s not a good idea to send her children to school with plastic bags tied over their heads.
I don’t think Trump’s position on the vaccines will matter at all unless COVID persists for another two years. Don’t forget Reagan’s saying that someone who sides with you 80% of the time is not a 20% enemy, but an 80% friend.
I know, but this group of people can turn around on a dime! We have seen it.
All it takes is a couple articles and TV commercials.