No, Science Doesn't Confirm Climate Change Causes Tornado Carnage

In the wake of a devastating and deadly tornado outbreak in Kentucky and a handful of other states, Democrats and mainstream media figures have returned to their old trick of standing atop life-altering tragedy to advance their partisan political agenda.

As Rebecca reported, President Biden was asked about the storms and — despite admitting he couldn't give "a quantitative read" on what role climate change may have played — said "the fact is that we all know everything is more intense when the climate is warming — everything. And, obviously, it has some impact here," he added. Except it's not obvious and it's not a settled fact.

As an Associated Press report explained, "Attributing a specific storm like Friday's to the effects of climate change remains very challenging" because "Less than 10% of severe thunderstorms produce tornadoes, which makes drawing conclusions about climate change and the processes leading up to them tricky," according to the National Severe Storms Laboratory's Harold Brooks.

USA Today also published an op-ed on the topic of whether the recent outbreak of tornadoes qualifies as "unprecedented" or a new development due that's attributable to climate change: "Historically, tornado outbreaks have occurred on nearly every day of the year – if the conditions are right, any day can produce devastating tornadoes," USA Today's report says. "We know that long-track tornadoes have occurred in the past with path lengths exceeding 100 miles," it adds. As for whether climate change played a role, USA Today is blunt in its denial that such a conclusion can be easily surmised:

Also chiming in: The New York Post Editorial Board with a piece warning against "pseudo-scientific hype" concluding that tornado outbreaks are tied to climate change. "The fact is that tornados are not becoming more frequent; the average remains about 1,200 observed each year, ranging from 900 to 1,600 or so," writes The New York Post. "Warming might change when 'tornado season' hits, but no scientific studies have yet shown any such link."

Steve Milloy brought receipts in a Twitter thread to make a similar point: while tragic, this weekend's tornado outbreak is not unprecedented, nor is there a definitive or provable link between climate change or global warming and tornado frequency.

As, albeit more reluctantly, even The Washington Post admitted, "scientists say link between climate change, storms unclear."

What's more, available data suggests that there hasn't been an uptick in the frequency of tornadoes in recent years, nor has an increase in greenhouse gas emissions made tornadoes worse, at least according to the data Milloy included in his thread.

The data and expert insight shows that the science of climate change's impact on tornadic activity is far from settled. But don't hold your breath hoping Democrats and liberal media will stop using the death and destruction across the South to advocate for more government-expanding Green New Deal policies.

Sensationalism and contrary to observed data. What is really true:

“Recent tornadoes are due to Unusually Cold Weather”
https://wattsupwiththat.com/2021/12/12/recent-tornadoes-are-due-to-unusually-cold-weather/

excerpt:
“Strong to Violent tornadoes (F3 or greater) are on a downtrend over the past 65 years.

Or, phrased another way, the last half of the 65-year U.S. tornado record had 40% fewer strong to violent tornadoes than the first half.

To claim that global warming is causing more tornadoes is worse than speculative; it is directly opposite to the clear observational evidence.”

December has shown a greater tendency to warming in recent decades than any other month (in the eastern and central US). For example NYC has broken its December record five times since 1982. This is unlike most other months, except perhaps February. These facts illustrate that winter is getting shorter. January is less impacted, then the rest of the year has only a slight tendency to the warmer months being recent.

So what does that have to do with severe weather outbreaks? You would expect more frequent severe weather outbreaks when there is warm air present in the central states. Most damaging tornadoes form along cold fronts that follow above normal temperatures. They do not need to be record-breaking warm, but in a cold winter month there are not likely to be severe storms except perhaps in Florida and some other parts of the Gulf coast.

The increase in severe storms at either end of the winter season is probably balanced by a less frequent climatology in the main severe weather season which is March to June. That’s because there is now somewhat less air mass contrast compared to 30-100 years ago. Another result is that tornado frequency has increased slightly in southern Canada as warmer air makes more frequent incursions there.

So it’s a bit complicated and in any case the tornado frequency overall is not changing, recent years have had about the same totals as other years further back when this data was available (if you go back too far you run into the less observant grid problem).

These were probably among the five worst December tornado outbreaks of all time, we’ve also had in relatively recent years a similar February outbreak (in 2008). But most of the historic outbreaks in March to June remain further back, in years like 1925 and 1974. There was that bad outbreak in Alabama in April 2011 and the Joplin tornado (which I recall being in late May back a few years also).

Another factor that has to be considered in studying tornado damage is the ever increasing target area, as towns get larger and urban sprawl increases in tornado alley. A balancing factor is better warnings and awareness. While the Tri-state tornado in 1925 was the most severe for both damage and death tolls, it probably would not have killed as many people in the modern era with more people aware of the risk and then watching live TV weather coverage, heading for their shelters. My guess is that the 1925 event might have killed between 100 and 300 people in today’s warning environment; the 1974 outbreak (which had a death toll of over 300) might have been capped near 100 (by 1974 there was somewhat better warning but evidently a lot of people were caught unaware, especially in Xenia OH which was largely wiped out).

The same claims have been made about hurricanes, with a variety of opinions but no clear evidence for more frequent damaging landfalls. Once again, better warnings have reduced death tolls which were astronomical in some earlier severe hurricanes (8 to 10 thousand in 1900 in Galveston, almost 2,000 in Florida in the 1920s). Very few severe hurricanes nowadays kill more than a hundred people.

There’s another pulse of very warm air coming into the central plains states with the cold front due on Wednesday so let’s hope this one either produces fewer twisters or unleashes them in more open country. From what I’ve seen of the guidance, the severe weather potential is not as great and it’s more of a sliding cold front than an undercut; those sliders often have just moderate thunderstorm activity. But temperatures could be well into the 70s and even low 80s in the central states before this comes through.

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