Posted on 10/16/2021 3:47:24 AM PDT by Kaslin
This is not adding up the way Terry McAuliffe thought it would.
He thought he could tie Glenn Youngkin to Donald Trump and be done with the upstart. Then he thought he could align himself with the man who expelled Trump from the White House – whose political reputation would put him in the mainstream of Virginia’s Democrat Party.
Then he thought he could paint his opponent as a waffler on abortion and anti-vax zealot and place himself on the side of the school boards against parents in the various fights over curriculum going on in Loudoun County and elsewhere.
As these strategies have unfolded, McAuliffe’s lead over Youngkin has shrunk from nine points in August to six in September to one as of the first week of October. The Cook Political Report has moved the race into the tossup category. The coalitions of voters that have enabled Democrats to win every statewide race since 2009 are in place, but the numbers are down significantly from what they usually deliver.
In Northern Virginia – the 8th, 10th and 11th congressional districts, which include large swaths of Fairfax County, Alexandria, Arlington and Loudoun counties – McAuliffe leads, 64-36. Last November, Fairfax went 70 percent for Joe Biden, Alexandria and Arlington went 80 percent and Loudoun 61 percent.
But Biden’s disapproval rating in Virginia has increased 15 points since February and his unfavorable rating by 17 points, according to Roanoke College polling. Biden, who endorsed and campaigned for McAuliffe, is now polling in the low- to mid-40s in Virginia. The poll found 22 percent said Biden’s endorsement made them more likely to vote for McAuliffe, but 39 percent said it made it less likely.
McAuliffe himself admitted resident Biden was a drag on his ticket.
Also, Hispanic voters actually have broken 55-45 for Youngkin, and although the Emerson poll showed a 72-25 percent edge for McAuliffe among Black voters, Youngkin just became the first Republican gubernatorial candidate ever to earn the endorsement of the Hampton Roads Black Caucus.
The non-partisan group, whose mission is to “increase representation of local elected officials who advocate and support legislation to enhance community,” endorsed McAuliffe in 2013 and current Gov. Ralph Northam in 2017.
McAuliffe’s remarks that parents shouldn’t be involved in planning curriculum do not match voters’ expectations either. The Emerson poll found 52 percent said parents should be more involved in curriculum planning; only 33 percent said school boards should have more influence.
McAuliffe’s attack on Youngkin’s abortion position backfired as well. Though more voters disagreed than agreed with Youngkin’s pro-life stance, they thought, by a 45-34 margin, that Youngkin had been honest about his beliefs.
McAuliffe’s mockery of Youngkin’s opposition to mask mandates has not fared well either. A Washington Post poll in September found nearly 70 percent of Virginians favored mask mandates and 67 percent favored vaccine mandates for teachers.
But the Emerson poll found voters favored McAuliffe to best handle covid by only 51-48, and a Roanoke College poll found 42 percent of Virginia voters thought the pandemic had been overhyped, and only 38 percent disagreed.
Pollsters differ on Youngkin’s actual chances of pulling this off, but all acknowledge a significant enthusiasm gap between Republicans eager to end their 12-year losing streak and Democrats who have come to see themselves as dominant and concern over this race as overblown.
The Roanoke poll found 43 percent of Republicans say they are “very enthusiastic” to vote in this year’s election, compared to only 31 percent of Democrats, and Sabato says he still hasn’t seen enough evidence to move the race from the “likely Democratic” category – but the metric he’s watching most closely is whether Democratic enthusiasm
Things are going McAuliffe’s way so far. Already nearly 300,000 have voted – compared to 195,000 at this point in 2017 – and McAuliffe-favorable districts in Northern Virginia have had the biggest early turnout. And the state is trending bluer – Biden won the 2020 presidential election by more than twice the margin Hillary Clinton enjoyed in 2016.
But the issues in the election are the economy, covid response and curriculum in the schools, and McAuliffe doesn’t have a significant edge in any of those areas. Virginia has not had a mask mandate in months, and anyone who has been to a football game in the state can tell you it won’t be popular to reinstate one as McAuliffe has hinted he would do.
Virginians can’t help but notice the states without mandates have fared better than the others, and the school board battles have energized voters in Democrat strongholds, such as Loudoun County.
The title of a recent Slate piece read: “Uh, Maybe Democrats Should Start Paying Attention to the Virginia Governor’s Race.” For once, Slate could be on to something.
Bubba’s bagman will win and win big
Well said. Intellectual conservatism , winning folks over on ideas ie WF Buckley, Rush, etc has been replaced by idiots yelling something about Brandon and running around with F Bomb flags.
PLEASE, Virginians!
SEND MCAWFUL PACKING!
Even worse.........some have conjectured that sexual assaults in public schools weren’t reported b/c it would hurt McAuliffe’s political ambitions.
Exit pollsters are going the way of buggy whip manufacturers. Extinct. In the age of vote by mail and legal ballot harvesting, opinions gleaned from in person voters are becoming moot. When will the GOP learn that election are not decided by traditional in person voting on election day?
The governor can't change the rules. Only the legislature can. Fairfax County wanted him to declare a COVID emergency, which under the election law would negate the requirement for a witness signature. Northam is not going to do that. The witness requirement is a joke anyway. Anyone who's going to falsify a ballot has no concerns whatsoever about forging a witness signature as well.
It’ll be the usual drill…..
It’ll be too close to call or Youngkin will have a very small lead, a few tenths of a percent.
Then the usual recounts - as many as it takes - ….where demhole votes miraculously appear as usual.
Youngkin will still be ahead by less then a tenth….then a few boxes of ballots - innocently overlooked of course - will be found under tables or in the trunks of cars. These new found ballots will go 98-2 for the demhole. Just enough to put him over the top.
Then the dems and their mediawhores will declare game over and move on.
And as usual the republicans will stand there with their thumbs up their Clymer and watch it all happen.
See:
Coleman, Norm
Rossi, Dino
All a setup to give the impression it’s a mandate that the country wants to go further leftward when McAuliffe wins next month.
McAwful is a Clintonist
He must be governor to run for the Presidency.
He must be thwarted at all costs
Continued signs the hold the Dems have on minority voters may be cracking...more time will tell. However, this is being offset by the woke, rich leftist whites.
I’m not sure what you mean - if that 25% is correct that is a massive shift to the GOP. Democrats cannot win in most places if 25% of the black vote were to consistently starting going to the GOP.
What? You don't think that convinces people not politically active but vote (the ones who decide the outcome of elections)?
Couldn't possibly also demoralize / drive away traditional conservative voters who vote at least partially based on values, either, could it?
Breakup DC. Move all these ABC agencies to the Midwest and plains.
What does Brandon have to do with Virginia? Is he from Virginia?
Brandon is what a fawning lapdog media has imposed as a derisive monicker reserved in perpetuity for the installed puppet occupant of 1600
Pennsylvania Avenue, who is really not not there figuratively and literally.
The here in discussion is regulated in rant disposition
It’s driving me away. I don’t want to be associated with these morons driving around with F Biden flags.
I believe it will be remarkably close.
McAwful is a Clintonist
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.