Posted on 10/16/2021 3:47:24 AM PDT by Kaslin
This is not adding up the way Terry McAuliffe thought it would.
He thought he could tie Glenn Youngkin to Donald Trump and be done with the upstart. Then he thought he could align himself with the man who expelled Trump from the White House – whose political reputation would put him in the mainstream of Virginia’s Democrat Party.
Then he thought he could paint his opponent as a waffler on abortion and anti-vax zealot and place himself on the side of the school boards against parents in the various fights over curriculum going on in Loudoun County and elsewhere.
As these strategies have unfolded, McAuliffe’s lead over Youngkin has shrunk from nine points in August to six in September to one as of the first week of October. The Cook Political Report has moved the race into the tossup category. The coalitions of voters that have enabled Democrats to win every statewide race since 2009 are in place, but the numbers are down significantly from what they usually deliver.
In Northern Virginia – the 8th, 10th and 11th congressional districts, which include large swaths of Fairfax County, Alexandria, Arlington and Loudoun counties – McAuliffe leads, 64-36. Last November, Fairfax went 70 percent for Joe Biden, Alexandria and Arlington went 80 percent and Loudoun 61 percent.
But Biden’s disapproval rating in Virginia has increased 15 points since February and his unfavorable rating by 17 points, according to Roanoke College polling. Biden, who endorsed and campaigned for McAuliffe, is now polling in the low- to mid-40s in Virginia. The poll found 22 percent said Biden’s endorsement made them more likely to vote for McAuliffe, but 39 percent said it made it less likely.
McAuliffe himself admitted resident Biden was a drag on his ticket.
Also, Hispanic voters actually have broken 55-45 for Youngkin, and although the Emerson poll showed a 72-25 percent edge for McAuliffe among Black voters, Youngkin just became the first Republican gubernatorial candidate ever to earn the endorsement of the Hampton Roads Black Caucus.
The non-partisan group, whose mission is to “increase representation of local elected officials who advocate and support legislation to enhance community,” endorsed McAuliffe in 2013 and current Gov. Ralph Northam in 2017.
McAuliffe’s remarks that parents shouldn’t be involved in planning curriculum do not match voters’ expectations either. The Emerson poll found 52 percent said parents should be more involved in curriculum planning; only 33 percent said school boards should have more influence.
McAuliffe’s attack on Youngkin’s abortion position backfired as well. Though more voters disagreed than agreed with Youngkin’s pro-life stance, they thought, by a 45-34 margin, that Youngkin had been honest about his beliefs.
McAuliffe’s mockery of Youngkin’s opposition to mask mandates has not fared well either. A Washington Post poll in September found nearly 70 percent of Virginians favored mask mandates and 67 percent favored vaccine mandates for teachers.
But the Emerson poll found voters favored McAuliffe to best handle covid by only 51-48, and a Roanoke College poll found 42 percent of Virginia voters thought the pandemic had been overhyped, and only 38 percent disagreed.
Pollsters differ on Youngkin’s actual chances of pulling this off, but all acknowledge a significant enthusiasm gap between Republicans eager to end their 12-year losing streak and Democrats who have come to see themselves as dominant and concern over this race as overblown.
The Roanoke poll found 43 percent of Republicans say they are “very enthusiastic” to vote in this year’s election, compared to only 31 percent of Democrats, and Sabato says he still hasn’t seen enough evidence to move the race from the “likely Democratic” category – but the metric he’s watching most closely is whether Democratic enthusiasm
Things are going McAuliffe’s way so far. Already nearly 300,000 have voted – compared to 195,000 at this point in 2017 – and McAuliffe-favorable districts in Northern Virginia have had the biggest early turnout. And the state is trending bluer – Biden won the 2020 presidential election by more than twice the margin Hillary Clinton enjoyed in 2016.
But the issues in the election are the economy, covid response and curriculum in the schools, and McAuliffe doesn’t have a significant edge in any of those areas. Virginia has not had a mask mandate in months, and anyone who has been to a football game in the state can tell you it won’t be popular to reinstate one as McAuliffe has hinted he would do.
Virginians can’t help but notice the states without mandates have fared better than the others, and the school board battles have energized voters in Democrat strongholds, such as Loudoun County.
The title of a recent Slate piece read: “Uh, Maybe Democrats Should Start Paying Attention to the Virginia Governor’s Race.” For once, Slate could be on to something.
My guess is Terry isn’t too worried.. The dems are doing the vote counting. The only problem is perception. When he wins in the face of exit polling showing a big loss, the press will have to work a tad harder to ridicule the ‘sore losers.’
McDufus by 5 points. The Democrat crime syndicate will control this election and the media will report that Biden campaigning for him was responsible for his victory.
And Brandon stayed in his basement and got installed. I’m telling y’all the steal is real. Publicans didn’t do nuffin and still aren’t doing anything about the crime of the century, the biggest heist ever.
Nothing would surprise me now.
What does Brandon have to do with Virginia? Is he from Virginia?
> I’m telling y’all the steal is real. <
True. And I like that turn of a phrase. So much so that I’m stealing it for my tag line.
I remember the early Ads when the Dems were attaching Youngkin to Trump, I saw them as a win for the good guys. I also noticed that they were keeping as far away from the current administration as possible.
Didn’t the Governor recently changed the mail=in vote counting rules to no signature verification required, so mail-in vote fraud.
This is a vain hope. Virginia’s days are done.
And the rest is simply Kabuki Theater
The urban areas have enough votes harvested for a Democrat win. The Democrats have this cheating down perfectly as the feckless Republicans have no clue.
He won't need to cheat when Republicans stay home believing the whole system is rigged. McAuliffe wins fair and square.
The UniParty (R) is actually the smarter half here. They get the same benefits as the UniParty (D) without dirtying their hands.
The system ain’t gonna fix itself
The UniParty (R) is actually the smarter half here. They get the same benefits as the UniParty (D) without dirtying their hands.
The system ain’t gonna fix itself
McAuliffe will probably win by 5% or more. We’re simply outnumbered by the liberal hive people in Northern VA. The dems don’t have much to worry about here in liberal Virginia.
They can rig elections at will now……
Why would he be worried about what people think or say at football stadiums.
“I’m telling y’all the steal is real.”
Perhaps, but fraud isn’t needed in VA. The dems have the money, the numbers, the national backing and all the power. At least half the voters here in deep-blue VA would cast a ballot for the leader of ISIS, so long as he has a (D) after his name.
Majority of Hispanics support the Republican but only 25% of blacks.
Republicans need to start catering to Hispanics or we are done.
Blacks are a lost cause
N VA voted 95% for Hillary. It is ultra liberal. No cheating of votes required
It may be decided to give Virginia its version of Larry Hogan, to keep the conservatives on the Conservatism. Inc., reservation.
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