Posted on 07/01/2021 2:41:54 AM PDT by NautiNurse
Tropical Storm Elsa has developed in the central tropical Atlantic Ocean, about 2500 miles east of the U.S. mainland. Interests in Florida should monitor updates to the forecast for this system, but it is too soon to determine what, if any, impacts could occur there next week given the uncertainty in the long-range forecast.Elsa is moving at a rapid clip, which may limit strengthening in the short term. Also, the potential interaction of the storm with the mountainous land masses of the Greater Antilles later in the forecast period could disrupt the circulation somewhat.
Mash the graphics below to enlarge. All links and images are self-updating.
FL Radar Loop with Storm Forecast Track
Tropical Tidbits by Levi Cowan
Hi.
Been watching the loop for 10 minutes. The damn thing is trying to form an eyewall. And it’s still off the coast in warm water.
Think I’ll have a drink.
5.56mm
Thanks.
I hear you. It’s the best Elsa has looked in days...
Your attack comment is duly noted.
On/Off Hurricane List Mash Here--> 
826
WTNT35 KNHC 062341
TCPAT5
BULLETIN
Hurricane Elsa Intermediate Advisory Number 27A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052021
800 PM EDT Tue Jul 06 2021
...ELSA REGAINS HURRICANE STATUS SOUTHWEST OF TAMPA BAY...
...RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT EN ROUTE TO INVESTIGATE THE HURRICANE...
SUMMARY OF 800 PM EDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
The Tropical Storm Warning for the Lower Florida Keys from Key West
to the Seven Mile Bridge has been discontinued.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* West coast of Florida from Bonita Beach to the Aucilla
River, including Tampa Bay
A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Egmont Key to the Steinhatchee River, Florida
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* The Dry Tortugas
* West coast of Florida from Flamingo to south of Egmont Key
* West coast of Florida north of Steinhatchee River to Ochlockonee
River
* Coast of Georgia from the Mouth of the St. Marys River to
Altamaha Sound
A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* West of the Aucilla River to the Ochlockonee River, Florida
A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* North of Altamaha Sound, Georgia, to South Santee River, South
Carolina
A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline,
in the indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at risk,
please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning
Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening
situation. Persons located within these areas should take all
necessary actions to protect life and property from rising water
and the potential for other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow
evacuation and other instructions from local officials.
A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the next 12
to 24 hours. Preparations to protect life and property should be
rushed to completion.
A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.
A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the
coastline, in the indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at
risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge
Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov.
A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area.
Interests elsewhere in the Carolinas and the mid-Atlantic coast
should monitor the progress of Elsa.
For storm information specific to your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office. For storm information specific to your area
outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by
your national meteorological service.
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
Data from the NOAA Doppler weather radar in Tampa Bay indicate that
maximum sustained winds are near 75 mph (120 km/h) with higher
gusts. Some additional slight strengthening will be possible
overnight. Weakening will begin after Elsa moves inland by late
Wednesday morning.
Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km)
from the center. Buoy 42013, located due north of Elsa, recently
measured a peak 1-minute sustained wind of 38 mph (61 km/h) gusting
to 47 mph (76 km/h). A wind gust to 43 mph (69 mph) was recently
measured on North Captiva Island.
The estimated minimum central pressure is 996 mb (29.41 inches).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected within the Hurricane Warning
area on the Florida Gulf coast beginning this evening. Tropical
storm conditions will continue over portions of the warning area in
the Florida Keys through this evening. Tropical storm conditions
are expected to spread northward into west-central Florida and the
Florida Big Bend region in the warning areas tonight and early
Wednesday. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the Tropical
Storm Warning area along the Georgia coast by late Wednesday and are
possible in the watch area in Georgia and South Carolina Wednesday
night and early Thursday.
STORM SURGE: The combination of a storm surge and the tide will
cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising
waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the
following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if
the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...
Englewood, FL to Aucilla River including Tampa Bay...3 to 5 ft
Bonita Beach, FL to Englewood, FL including Charlotte Harbor...2 to
4 ft
Aucilla River to Ochlockonee River...2 to 4 ft
Flamingo, FL to Bonita Beach, FL...1 to 3 ft
Ochlockonee River to Indian Pass...1 to 2 ft
Mouth of St. Marys River to South Santee River, SC...1 to 2 ft
Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge
and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For
information specific to your area, please see products issued by
your local National Weather Service forecast office.
RAINFALL: Across portions of Cuba through tonight, outer bands south
of Elsa will produce an additional 1 to 3 inches of rainfall.
Isolated storm totals of 15 inches are expected, which will maintain
areas of significant flash flooding and mudslides through tonight.
Elsa is expected to produce the following rainfall amounts and
impacts this week:
Across the Florida Keys into southwest and western portions of the
Florida Peninsula...3 to 6 inches with localized maximum totals up
to 9 inches through Wednesday, which may result in considerable
flash and urban flooding, along with minor to isolated moderate
river flooding.
Across the rest of Florida...2 to 4 inches with localized maximum
totals up to 6 inches through Wednesday night, which may result in
considerable isolated flash and urban flooding along with minor to
isolated moderate river flooding.
Across portions of southeast Georgia and the Lowcountry of South
Carolina, 3 to 5 inches with isolated maximum totals up to 8 inches
will be possible, which may result in considerable flash and urban
flooding.
Across coastal portions of North Carolina into southeastern
Virginia...1 to 3 inches with isolated totals up to 5 inches
Wednesday night through Thursday night, which could lead to isolated
flash and urban flooding.
TORNADOES: A few tornadoes are possible through tonight across the
Florida Peninsula. The tornado threat will continue on Wednesday
across north Florida, southeast Georgia, and the Lowcountry of
South Carolina. The tornado threat should shift to the eastern
Carolinas and far southeast Virginia on Thursday.
SURF: Swells will spread northward across portions of the Florida
Keys and the west coast of Florida through early Wednesday. These
swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office
for more details.
NEXT ADVISORY
$$
Forecaster Stewart/Latto
At least the forward speed has picked up... not much worse than a lingering hurricane of any size.
Looks like to me the worst possible path: counter clockwise winds right up the whole east coast.
Will accept any positive news at this hour.
Tampa has a very difficult time with water shoved up into the bay.
Is that where you are? Stay safe. Thanks for these threads. Although I live in Indiana, I am from the Texas gulf coast.
Bttt
Ok, so I’m watching the radar go round and round. Sure looks like the eye sucked in a whole bunch of dry air. Knocked some punch out of the storm.
Having a tough time figuring which coastal town she is closest to now and how far off shore she is.
The sloppy storm is due west of Sarasota. She’s breaking up.
Very quiet 20 miles north of Orlando right now. A few raindrops and slight breeze. No lightning or thunder yet.
What do you hear for Davis Islands neighborhood?
Yep, peak winds currently forecast for AMI are 45mph between 12-3, here at the mouth of Tampa Bay. She musta got the memo.
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