[FarRockaway2]

So the good news is we should be down to about 110 deaths per day by August 12th. (scroll down) But the bad news is that the projection starts to rise again at that point with the coming of fall. Once we get over the true herd immunity threshold (somewhere about 65% to 70% which is coming within days) there shouldn't be the rise again. But the fact we are still seeing a rise in the long-term projection means we may not be quite there yet. Vax's are still running at 2 million a day, so this will likely continue for a bit, and we will likely hit the herd immunity threshold.

[dynoman]

October/November was when it started spiking last year. Will be interesting to watch.

[Pollard]

COVID deaths projection

All but 500 million people

[JerryBlackwell]

but...but...the president said we could take off our masks!

[patriciaruth]

Has anyone got estimate of how many people got Covid and recovered and never got counted because they never went to see a doctor?

My yard man had Covid back in the Fall, still has some problems with smell and taste alterations, though that is better. He never went to a doctor, believing that there wasn’t much outpatient help/medicine he could get, thanks to the big lie from the fake news media possibly due to Big Pharm not wanting to lose business for their expensive new meds in research, when a cheap, rare side effect med like hydrochloroquine and others could have kept a lot out of the hospital and shortened the suffering of others.

[Laslo Fripp]

Sign up date of 03/2020.

Is that you Dr. Fauci?

j/k

[CodeToad]

This is great since now no one dies of the flu, car crashes, or anything else but covid.

[metmom]

Welcome toFR.

You are aware, aren’t you, that this virus will not be with us like this forever?

The Spanish Flu in the 1900’s was far more deadly, and yet burned itself out in a couple years with NO vaccines.

Viruses do that. The projections you are posting as just fear mongering. It’s pure speculation because nobody knows for sure what’s going to happen this fall.

[Paul R.]

I think it is fair to ask how this organization’s projections of fatalities have compared to actual reported numbers, the last year or so. Like the National Weather Service, nobody seems to report such information succinctly or make it easily found.* I did monitor the projections on Worldometers for quite some time, and after some wildness early on, from roughly April 2020 through the end of 2020, given all the unknowns and maybes, I’d say those projections were pretty good - conservative, if anything. THIS source I’m unfamiliar with, however.

*To be fair, while my local NWS office does not post graphs of their forecasts vs. actual measurements, they DO sometimes lampoon model and forecast “misses” in their forecast discussions — more so than some other local NWS offices, I’d say. :-)