Posted on 03/24/2021 12:53:23 PM PDT by Kaslin
With most of the votes counted and no decisive outcome as far as who the next Prime Minister will be, or if Israel will be headed to an unprecedented fifth national election in less than three years, one thing is clear, the big winners in Israel’s national election this week were Israeli Arabs.
One might have said that a year ago, after Israel’s third national election in (what was then) a year. Then, the “Joint Arab List,” a faction made up of four Arab political parties running together, won a striking 15 seats in Israel’s Knesset (parliament). This made the Joint List Israel’s third largest party, dispelling the libelous notion that Israel is an apartheid state and that there’s some form of state sponsored discrimination.
Of Israel’s 9 million citizens, some 20 percent are Arabs. Most are Moslem, including Bedouin, and smaller percentages are Druze and Christians. Arabic is one of Israel’s two official languages. Despite being exempt from mandatory military service or optional civilian national service, there’s a growing trend among Israeli Arabs to participate in these national pillars on a voluntary basis. In fact, most Druze and many Bedouin men do serve in the army.
While many of Israel’s national Zionist parties have Arabs on their respective lists of candidates, and have garnered Arab votes, most Israeli Arabs have voted for the primarily Arab parties, leading to the Joint List’s success a year ago. However, the parties and members of the Joint List are known predominantly as being rejectionists, not just of Israel and its legitimacy as a Jewish state, but of state policies, including those that are or could be advantageous to Israeli Arabs.
Among the most recent and egregious of these was their vote against the ratification of the Abraham Accords, the wide-ranging peace treaties signed in 2020 between Israel and four Arab countries. Rather, the Joint List looked at this as treasonous in many ways, an abandonment of the cause of the neighboring Palestinian Arabs. Indeed, many Joint List members advocated for the Palestinian Arabs so much that many Israeli Arabs questioned whose interests the Joint List represented.
This in part precipitated an unraveling of the Joint List leading up to this week’s election. The conservative Arab Islamist party, Ra’am, split from the Joint List to run on their own. This was a bold move, initiated by Ra’am leader Mansour Abbas. Pollsters and pundits wondered whether Ra’am would receive at least 3.25 percent of the vote in order to pass the electoral threshold. With most of the votes counted, it seems that Ra’am not just surpassed the threshold, but won an astounding 4-5 seats.
That’s what makes Israeli Arabs the big winners. This can be said even though together, Ra’am and the Joint List have dropped from 15 to 10-11 seats.
Ra’am’s surpassing the threshold shifted the allocation of all the Knesset’s 120 seats, on both the right and the left. In many ways, this makes Mansour Abbas the possible kingmaker.
Because Ra’am has expressed a willingness to support or even join a coalition headed by a Jewish/Zionist party, Ra’am could tip the scale to either side of the political spectrum and enable the formation of a government representing at least 61 seats in the Knesset.
As he stated during the campaign and following the outcome, Abbas declared that he was not “in the pocket” of any party or prospective coalition. He affirmed this on national radio, “We are willing to negotiate with both sides, with anyone interested in forming a government and who views themselves as a future prime minister. If there is an offer, we’ll sit and talk.”
After perceiving that the Joint List was out of touch with the average Israeli Arab, and not representing their interests, Abbas declared a “new path” of how Israeli Arabs should integrate within the Israeli political framework. His approach is pragmatic: establishing clear priorities of the Israeli Arab community and advocating for these, in exchange for which he may support even a Netanyahu-led government as a way of advancing these and serving the Israeli Arab public. This transformation could integrate Israeli Arabs as never before as an influential pillar of Israeli politics.
Until now, there have been myriad reasons why Arab parties have never been part, or backed the establishment of, a government. On one side is because of an Arab taboo to recognize Israel’s legitimacy as a Jewish state. On the other side is the red line of national Jewish/Zionist parties including these parties in the government, or even relying on their support. For decades, the taboo and red line have been self-perpetuating. Now, these may be broken and breached forever. If successful, there may be no going back.
Despite the “new path” Ra'am is strictly conservative. It supports the establishment of a Palestinian state with Jerusalem as its capital, an end of the “occupation” and dismantling of the settlements. It advocates the recognition of Israeli Arabs as a national minority. Ra'am calls for closing societal gaps and supports both the establishment of an Arab university and the development of industrial zones near Arab communities. As an Islamism party, it is socially conservative, and differed with the Joint List over supporting LGBT rights.
Ra’am’s rise and the Joint List’s fall were also the product of several factors. These included a particularly low voter turnout among Israeli Arabs, dissatisfaction with the Joint List, and voter fatigue (a factor in an overall lower turnout this time as compared to a year ago). A pre-election poll found that the Joint List was rated poorly among Israeli Arabs. Only 44 percent of Israeli Arabs over 65 gave the Joint List a good or excellent score, as compared to just 13 percent of those 18-24. With young people looking toward their future, this could be trendsetting and not a whim.
Despite Prime Minister Netanyahu repeatedly stating that he would refuse to sit in a coalition with Ra’am, or rely on its support from outside the government, many doubt he’ll keep this commitment if he can ensure the formation of a government.
There are still many factors that need to be watched, and the coming days and weeks will be telling. Big questions are whether this will be a good thing for Israeli Arabs and Israel. How will Palestinian Arabs look on this in general, and as they approach the possibility of their first election in 15 years? Will they look at Ra’am and Abbas as traitors, or as role models?
Either way, this is a historic opportunity for Israeli Arabs to become positive, proactive, and significant players on the formation of a government in specific, and even more so within Israeli society on the whole.
In the end, I think the Likud Party and Binyamin Netanyahu will still win.
“Of Israel’s 9 million citizens, some 20 percent are Arabs. Most are Moslem, including Bedouin, and smaller percentages are Druze and Christians. Arabic is one of Israel’s two official languages.”
Actually, they have 3 official languages, with Russian being the third. Needless to say, English is very widespread too, but not official.
Arab parties win majority, kick Jews out.
What happens if the ay-rab muzzies win and take over the government of Israel? Will it expel Jews?
Israel is in its own midst of self hatred that got biden elected here.
Liberalism.
So much for the accusations that Israel is a racist apartheid state. Consider how things would be for Jews in an Islamic caliphate. Would the UN be intervening on their behalf?
That article is rather dated. Current demographic trends suggest a continuing Jewish majority, and a much more observant one.
https://www.jpost.com/israel-news/report-israels-population-to-reach-20-million-by-2065-492429
Ironic, these "Ra'am" Islamofascists sound better on social issues than the so-called "conservatives" in Likud. Of course, the fact they want to wipe Israel off the map and create a "Palestinian state" with Jerusalem as its capitol makes them a non-starter.
"Joint List" (which is actually a coalition of four Arab parties in Israel: Balad, Hadash, Ta'al, and Ma'an) being socially liberal doesn't surprise me, most of the RAT Muslim politicians in the USA are socially liberal, too. There was a thread a week or two ago speculating why Muslim politicians in western countries vote for gay "rights" when Islam itself and "Islamic-run" governments in Arab countries are so vehemently against gays (far more so than even the most "conservative Christians" are -- you don't see conservative Christians demanding gays get arrested and executed). The theory most FReepers came up with is that Muslim politicians vote for it because they hope it will accelerate the fall of western civilization so they can then "take over" those countries. Sounds like a stretch but the theory certainly makes more sense than anything else.
Netanyahu, of course, has ruled out a unity government with any of the Arab parties out of "principle", but I wouldn't be surprised if he caved if it was necessary to get at least one of their slates to join his government to get to 61 seats. If that in the case, better Ra'am than Joint List. But I wouldn't trust ANY Arab majority party to have power in the Israeli government anymore than I would trust the British royal family making decisions in a political party dedicated to making the UK a Republic.
I wonder what happened with all the "Ultra Orthodox" parties that caused the government to collapse in the first place and all those Israeli elections LAST year because they threw a hissy fit and demanded the government exempt their kids from military service? I've been reading thru the first five books of the Bible during Lent and I have yet to find any passage where God commands the Isrealites "Thou shall not enlist any of thy children in the military". But if the "Ultra-Orthodox" want to follow the Torah super strictly, they will be pleased to know their is exhaustive rules in there about what kind of seafood one is allowed to eat, when it is appropriate to stone people to death, the rituals involved in animal sacrifice, and how many days you will be "unclean" and shunned by your fellow Jews for various skin conditions. ;-)
Finally, for the unfortunate 2% of Israel that is Christian and never had a dog in this fight (its either vote against their own self-interests by voting for one of the conservative Jewish parties that treats them like crap, or vote against their own countries interests by voting for one of the arab parties that wants to wipe their country off the map), I remember last time there was FINALLY a newly formed "Christian" party in isreal that was socially conservative but PRO-Israel. I remember in 2020 it amounted to "too little, too late" and they won zero seats in the Knesset. I would hope they could improve this time and at least win 1 or 2 seats and get some leverage in government. Christians having influence in the Israeli government would be refreshing.
Bezalel Smotrich (National Union–Tkuma Party) is still my choice for PM of Israel in an ideal world. Of course, it will never happen. :-(
If I’m not mistaken, Israeli political parties can’t win 1 or 2 seats in the Knesset. If they get below 3.25%, they get 0 seats, and if they break 3.25%, they will get a minimum of 4 seats.
I believe you’re correct.
The ONLY other member of his party to win a seat in the Knesset was Ofir Sofer.
It's not much, but its still more than Nigel Farage's 0 seats in the British parliament.
I think a "Christian" party could theoretically win 1-2 seats in the Israeli Knesset, though they'd probably have to do it by running in a coalition with some non-Christian parties with shared views. They don't have enough clout (or raw numbers of voters in any particular region of Israel) to win any seats on their own merits simply by being a "Christian" Party.
Isreal did have ONE "Christian" in the Knesset a couple years back, but he was not a member of a Christian party, and no such party existed back then. He was some Arab jerk who won under the "Joint List" slate of Arab parties, and coincidentally also happened to be a Christian.
Another example, Gesher won a single seat in the Israeli government:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gesher_(2019_political_party)
They’ve switched back and forth over with of the major parties they caucus with, being part of the Labor in 2020 and being in the Likud government in 2021.
You are wrong. Gesher formed a joint ticket with Labor and Meretz for the March 2, 2019 election *precisely because* its leadership feared that, if it ran alone, it would not reach the 3.25% threshold and thus get shut out of the Knesset. Gesher didn’t split from the joint ticket until *after* the election, and that’s how Orly Levy served as the “sole member of her party” in the Knesset. From the Wikipedia article that you linked:
“For the 2020 March elections, Gesher-Labor unified with Meretz in light of worries that neither party would pass the 3.25% threshold needed to enter the Knesset. Many Gesher voters were surprised at this merger, because when it comes to the politics of the Arab–Israeli conflict, Gesher was seen as more of a centre-right party, while Meretz is a left wing party.[citation needed] On 17 March 2020, Gesher leader Orly Levy requested that she be allowed to withdraw her party from its alliance with Labor and Meretz.[12] The Arrangements Committee approved the split on 23 March.[13]”
So I was correct that one can’t get elected unless one runs with a party that gets at least 3.25%. No way that a Christian party, unless it forms a coalition with a non-Christian party, would elect anyone to the Knesset.
Well, in any case, my favorite guy, Bezalel Smotrich, won a total of 2 seats for his party (Tkuma) in the Knesset, not the “minimum four” you claimed earlier. There’s no sort of “win less than 4 seats and they automatically get 0 of their members in government” rule.
Yes, they did run on a coalition with other like-minded parties for the purpose of strengthening their chances of winning, but that was for the purpose of caucusing together in the Knesset and for GOTV efforts by running under the same slate and sharing resources, etc., not because they were required to. Israel is a multi-party system with dozens of minor parties sharing power, so they pretty much ALL ran on slates with other political parties as part of their “team”. And as I noted, any hypothetical “Christian” party would indeed have to run on a slate with non-Christians, not only because its a multi-party system but because they are only 2% of the population in Israel and can’t win just on Christian votes alone.
Smotrich also ran on a slate with parties that had similar goals as his own, but the other two parties (namely, Otzma Yehudit & Noam) each got zero seats, and it didn’t stop Tkuma from holding two. Previously, they had 5 seats. On another thread, apparently there is a projection that they could win 6-7 seats in this current election, which would be awesome, but there’s no “minimum of four or they don’t get power at all” rule. This article itself notes that Ra’am winning “up to” four seats would “defy expectations”, as they were expected to win less.
Ra’am was expected to win 0 seats folliwing the exit polls; after they counted 90% of precincts, they were projected to surpass the 3.25% threshold and get 4 or 5 seats. No coalition can win more than 0 but fewer than 4 seats, not could a party running alone.
folliwing = following
not could = nor could
This is just some agitprop to suggest that the Joint List is a moderate faction of the Arab terrorism advocates.
https://www.freerepublic.com/focus/news/3408079/posts?page=17#17
I think Tkuma had 2 seats in the *previous Parliament, last election they ran on a joint list (not the “Joint List” which is the name of a specific joint list), small parties seem to do that to pool their votes. A list needs at least 3.25% and that gives it at least 4 seats.
Wiki currently has Tkuma winning 6 seats.
Proportional representation is really an absurd system. At least with such a low threshold to allow so many parties (Turkey has a high one, I believe 15%). “Democracy” in inaction.
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