Yep, the only way we can hypothetically win in an election like that is to find a way to make little Lisa end up in 3rd place during the initial round of voting. The candidates on the ballot would be key. You’d need a popular top tier RAT candidate (and only ONE RAT candidate) to ensure the hard D’s loyally support that person and he/she gets around 30% of the vote, and ALSO a very popular and powerful conservative Republican who is clearly to Lisa’s right. If the first round then ended up with something like Conservative GOP-36%, RAT-32%, DIABLO LISA MURKOWSKI-29%, GREEN PARTY-3%, she’d be toast
The good news is this new electoral system should embolden the rats and the Greens, so it’s not impossible. Green second preference votes would transfer first to the rat and could push her to third even if she’s initially 2nd.