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Republicans Are On Track To Take Back The House In 2022
fivethirtyeight.com ^

Posted on 11/23/2020 4:08:17 PM PST by Conserv

Although we don’t yet know the winners of some House races, we can already look ahead to the 2022 midterms and see a fairly straightforward path for the GOP to capture the House. Midterm elections historically go well for the party that’s not in the White House, and the out-of-power party is especially likely to do well in the House, since every seat is up for election (the Senate is a more complicated story).

Since the end of World War II, the presidential party has lost an average of 27 House seats in midterm elections, as the chart below shows. No matter how many seats Democrats end up with after 2020’s election — at this point, they will probably end up somewhere in the low 220s — a loss of that magnitude would easily be enough for Republicans to retake the House.

The recent history of midterms in a Democratic president’s first term seems especially promising for the GOP, too. Following Bill Clinton’s election in 1992, Democrats lost more than 50 seats in 1994, and after Barack Obama won the presidency in 2008, Democrats lost more than 60 seats.

If Democrats had added five to 10 seats this year, they could have survived a 20-seat loss in the midterms. Instead, Republicans will probably need to win fewer than 10 seats to gain a slender majority in 2022.

[Related: Politics Podcast: Why Polls Were Off In 2020, And Why They Weren’t That Bad]

On top of this, Republicans could very well benefit from the new district lines that will be drawn ahead of the 2022 midterm elections. The GOP is set to fully control redistricting for about two-fifths of all House seats, while Democrats will only hold sway over one-tenth of them, with the remaining seats are in states with divided governments or where redistricting is done by a commission system. The Republican line-drawing advantage should help the party draw favorable maps that could help the GOP win more seats than we might otherwise expect.


TOPICS: Editorial; Politics/Elections
KEYWORDS: fakeelection; fakenews
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To: genxer

And 20 million more illegals that Biden will be letting come in.


81 posted on 11/23/2020 4:27:12 PM PST by carikadon (Don't mess with Texas)
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To: Alberta's Child
I’m not even sure what the hell the GOP would ever use as their campaign theme in 2022 without making everyone die laughing.

"We take it up the pooper from Dominatrix Witmer without crying!"

82 posted on 11/23/2020 4:27:34 PM PST by kiryandil (Chris Wallace: Because someone has to drive the Clown Car)
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To: Fledermaus

Even when they have congress and the WH, they sit on their hands. So many lost opportunities. Only a handful supported Trump. The GOP is dead, they just don’t know it yet.


83 posted on 11/23/2020 4:27:35 PM PST by virgil (The evil that men do lives after them )
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To: Conserv

If SCOTUS fails us the Republic is dead and the Republican party is dead. The loss of a free and open vote only means bad things to a civil society, do people not understand it yet.

Its not like we are pushing it but you just know it. You can see it in your neighbors eyes when talking talking to them. Nothing happens in a vacuum. Their are consequences to every action.

Dem communists so power hungry screwed this country and the Republicans are fake and playing us for fools.


84 posted on 11/23/2020 4:27:51 PM PST by MagillaX (My)
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To: Conserv

I’ll predict exactly how the SCOTUS is going to ultimately rule on this voter fraud, but I think we already know the outcome.🙄


85 posted on 11/23/2020 4:28:02 PM PST by Artcore (Trump 2020! )
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To: RedMominBlueState

If I was in Georgia I would adopt L Lin Wood’s plan.

If Mitch wants to hold onto power he better get to rigging those machines used on Trump


86 posted on 11/23/2020 4:28:17 PM PST by RummyChick (I blame Kushner.)
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To: virgil

I agree. The Republicans think we will fall in line again. They got another thought coming


87 posted on 11/23/2020 4:28:49 PM PST by LoveMyFreedom
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To: Conserv

Well let’s worry about that when we get there...

We have a Senate to keep hold of first. If we don’t then it won’t matter.


88 posted on 11/23/2020 4:28:51 PM PST by Republican Wildcat
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To: Gene Eric

I say give it all to them, let it burn.


89 posted on 11/23/2020 4:28:59 PM PST by Toespi
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To: Conserv

and if the Dems perform the same stealing tricks they did in this election they wont have to worry about losing the House they will gain 30 seats


90 posted on 11/23/2020 4:29:28 PM PST by Sarah Barracuda
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To: Conserv

I’m still expecting Trump will pull this out.

I’m still hoping Sidney Powell releases the Kraken on Steroids.

I’m still hoping we retain the Senate.

The primary challenge over the next two years, regardless of what happens, is to restore election integrity. Because if we can’t do that, then we are unlikely to take back the house and we will likely lose the senate.

The secondary challenge is to limit the amount of socialism and long term change that gets installed by the rats.

Senate has 12 democrats and 22 republicans up for reelection in 2022. All of the seats in the House are up.

If we get election integrity restored, we may well win the House and Senate. And then we can block a lot of BidenHarris nonsense.


91 posted on 11/23/2020 4:29:47 PM PST by DannyTN (<P><a href="https://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-chat/3902132/posts">)
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To: Huskrrrr

You are as goid as dead like the rest of us


92 posted on 11/23/2020 4:29:56 PM PST by LoveMyFreedom
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To: Starboard

........”What they are is rigged validation”......

Of which I will not support by signing my name via my vote. Those days are over after the way we’ve been treated by the GOP refusing to stand with us for our President!

They’re a den of vultures!..with a few exceptions.


93 posted on 11/23/2020 4:30:03 PM PST by caww ( )
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To: Conserv

Yeah, sure.

Wonder how they are going to do that.......

Democrats are going to cheat less?


94 posted on 11/23/2020 4:30:05 PM PST by Lurkinanloomin (Natural Born Citizens Are Born Here of Citizen Parents|Know Islam, No Peace-No Islam, Know Peace)
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To: Stravinsky

This is the most MOOT POINT.


95 posted on 11/23/2020 4:31:18 PM PST by Shady (It is the rule of law vs tyranny, plain and simple, and it is the fight of our lives...)
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To: Artcore
I have to chuckle when I hear hopes about upcoming elections! Do you people seriously think the Dems are going to allow honest elections going forward? Don’t make me laugh!

Conservatives are VERY naive.

96 posted on 11/23/2020 4:31:28 PM PST by who knows what evil? (Yehovah saved more animals than people on the ark...siameserescue.org)
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To: Conserv

Nothing from the queer weasel Nate Silver should ever be posted again. He has zero credibility. Quit pretending that he does.


97 posted on 11/23/2020 4:31:37 PM PST by TexasGurl24
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To: Conserv

With the rats controlling the WH, the house and quite possibly will steal the senate - are we going to even have elections that aren’t rigged anymore?

I’m getting pinged so much now from the GOP for money - they’re not getting anything. I’m done.


98 posted on 11/23/2020 4:31:43 PM PST by Aria (- )
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To: Conserv

So 538 is writing fiction now? Add an open border and many millions of illegals turned into citizens to all the fraud that is happening now and the GOP will be occupying the comfy chair as a Potempkin second party.


99 posted on 11/23/2020 4:31:45 PM PST by Truth29
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To: Conserv

Yeah for the uniparty.


100 posted on 11/23/2020 4:32:00 PM PST by E. Pluribus Unum (You are in far more danger from an authoritarian government than you are from a seasonal virus.)
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