Posted on 11/23/2020 4:08:17 PM PST by Conserv
Although we don’t yet know the winners of some House races, we can already look ahead to the 2022 midterms and see a fairly straightforward path for the GOP to capture the House. Midterm elections historically go well for the party that’s not in the White House, and the out-of-power party is especially likely to do well in the House, since every seat is up for election (the Senate is a more complicated story).
Since the end of World War II, the presidential party has lost an average of 27 House seats in midterm elections, as the chart below shows. No matter how many seats Democrats end up with after 2020’s election — at this point, they will probably end up somewhere in the low 220s — a loss of that magnitude would easily be enough for Republicans to retake the House.
The recent history of midterms in a Democratic president’s first term seems especially promising for the GOP, too. Following Bill Clinton’s election in 1992, Democrats lost more than 50 seats in 1994, and after Barack Obama won the presidency in 2008, Democrats lost more than 60 seats.
If Democrats had added five to 10 seats this year, they could have survived a 20-seat loss in the midterms. Instead, Republicans will probably need to win fewer than 10 seats to gain a slender majority in 2022.
[Related: Politics Podcast: Why Polls Were Off In 2020, And Why They Weren’t That Bad]
On top of this, Republicans could very well benefit from the new district lines that will be drawn ahead of the 2022 midterm elections. The GOP is set to fully control redistricting for about two-fifths of all House seats, while Democrats will only hold sway over one-tenth of them, with the remaining seats are in states with divided governments or where redistricting is done by a commission system. The Republican line-drawing advantage should help the party draw favorable maps that could help the GOP win more seats than we might otherwise expect.
Well you've posted plenty of things over time here to indicate that is the case...why stop with tradition?
And you post this like it only affects the candidates and doesn't affect us. Remarkable how removed from reality you continue to be.
I love how everyone thinks everything will just get back to normal if that commie administration takes hold. Elections? Forget it. Heard a blip on the radio news earlier and it was Adam Housley saying with glee that “big changes are coming”. Don’t these people have families? Don’t they understand what is at stake here?
It doesn’t matter if you vote ever again or not. A ballot will just be manufactured in your name.
No chance ... if Dems get away with stealing this time ... they will learn how to cover their tracks better for next time ...
Breaking news says DJT has told staff to "make the transition".
:(
Vote, vote, vote. “We might even let you win.”
Not if we all stay home.
Even after you’re dead.
It won’t matter, the democrats will just steal the election like they have in the past. The DOJ FBI and other three letter agencies are owned and controlled by the left.
This doesn;t end well if Trump doesn’t prevail in court
They weren’t paid to affect that only the presidency. So therefore that is the proof in my opinion that the president actually won. People are lazy and they didn’t split the ticket
As you run the swab down the barrel keep repeating this in your head, we didn't do this, they did.
I think it was John MacArthur who said of voting for Trump back in 2016 ‘we are just re-arranging the chairs on the deck of the Titanic’. I guess we will see.
then they’re the dumbest god damn election hackers imaginable.
Agree. Its an insult to call them elections because they won’t meet the definition of the term. What they are is rigged validation. The same thing banana republics and communist regimes do.
Dems don’t even need Congress for their fundamental transformation of America. They just need the administrative state (the White House) and corporate lobbyists will buy off Congress. The corrupt and post-Constitutional courts are never again going to play for Team USA.
They had the House 2017-2019, with Paul Ryan in charge.
Look how that turned out.
So much could have been done in those two years. The democrats could have been made a permanent minority, but Ryan wanted to stop Trump more than beat democrats.
What makes anyone think a Republican House in 2022 will be anything more than the tax collector and facilitator for Joe Biden?
How about a link?
These dummies STILL DON’T GET IT.
IF TRUMP LOOSES, OPERATION DOMINION SUCCEEDED AND AMERICA BECOMES KALIFORNIA
Bring on the MAGA party ! Plenty of Democrats and Independents voted for Trump . It was documented at the rallies .
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