Curious how the dems gained more than 20,000 over the past two days. Was that the result of the “souls to the polls” efforts by the black churches?
More a function of certain Rs determined to vote on actual ED, no earlier.
No, that was the previous weekend.
The main cause of the D pickup from 94K to 115K was the continued incoming mail count on Sunday and Monday when most in-person early voting sites were closed on Sunday (a few open, but not many); and *no* in person early voting sites open on Monday.
Both campaigns thought Joe needed upwards of a 300,000 D ballot margin going in to election day to win. He had just 115,000.
Trump won by 112,900 over Hillary in 2016 on 9,502,000 votes; there are already 9,664,126 votes counted early plus today; and the R > D ballot count has already moved from -115,000 to +35,757; a change of more than 150,000.
*That* is why Joe needed a 300,000 D>R ballot count by last night. Didn’t get it.
If (and I said *if*) current trends hold today, Trump may finish with a 250,000 to 300,000 vote margin over Biden in Florida.
How much of that overperformance in 2020 > 2016, if it holds, will translate to other states? That is the question.