Posted on 11/03/2020 5:45:18 AM PST by SpeedyInTexas
VBM Ballots - DEMs lead by 673,828
In-Person Early Voting - REPs lead by 558,412
Combined Early Voting - DEMs lead by 115,416
Silver says Biden still favored in Flordia - you know because of the Indys.
Yeah throw out all those hispanics in Dade. I hear his site is owned by Disney.
1) Philly turnout is low
2) Memphis, TN turnout is low, but suburban turnout around Memphis is high.
saw on another thread Cleveland was low
and urban northern VA was low
Nate is really hanging in there. I think he knows if he blows it again (haha) his career is over.
Cross overs will go one way. Not GOP to Dem.
With all else even cross voting wise, the current lead will require a 7+% Indie preference against Trump for that concept to work.
They preferred Trump by 4% in 2016.
Does Nate Silver run predictit? WTF is going on, my bets are going the opposite direction of the days events, lol. My bet on FL is down from this morning as Rs cross 200k vote lead.
Indies tend to go with the better leader, and not the person they necessarily agree with. How could that not be Trump?
Hold steady on Florida.
Rs still going to win.
People on PredictIT follow Silver.
Umich
“Florida 5:30 update:
GOP: 4,210,984 (+203,533)
DEM: 4,007,451
NPA/Other: 2,559,542
Total: 10,777,977”
Hold Steady.
And Panhandle votes 1 hour longer.
Hold steady.
Can start breathing a little easier but if it takes off to above 300K... well that’s that and we look to the rust belt
Depending on polls for Indie measurement . . . this is typically 950 samples. 22% are Indies. That’s 209 samples to draw a conclusion about Indies.
That has to have an MOE of what, 50%?
Guess ol' Nate missed that very recent poll from Iowa (supposedly the "gold standard") where independents broke for Trump by 14 points. One point better than in 2016, when Trump won IA by ~9 pts and FL by ~3 pts.
Don't kid yourself. Trump absolutely will not get 100% of Republican votes. Probably ~93-94%.
Good to hear from you.
Don’t want people here to loose their nerve.
We are on the cusp of victory.
Silver says Biden still favored in Flordia - you know because of the Indys.
Guess ol’ Nate missed that very recent poll from Iowa (supposedly the “gold standard”) where independents broke for Trump by 14 points. One point better than in 2016, when Trump won
I think Nate is basing this on some pole that showed Biden has ALREADY won 62% of independents that voted early.Not sure as of what date.
“NEW North Carolina Board of Elections meeting right now to potentially extend voting hours in 7 more precincts in Cabarrus, Sampson (3), and Warren (3) counties.
Already extended four precincts at 1pm so the earliest we will see ANY results is 8:15pm”
Don’t kid yourself. What percent of Dem crossovers go to the GOP, Mr. Biden?
“The polls have closed in much of Indiana and Kentucky.
NYT results are live.”
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.