Posted on 11/03/2020 5:45:18 AM PST by SpeedyInTexas
VBM Ballots - DEMs lead by 673,828
In-Person Early Voting - REPs lead by 558,412
Combined Early Voting - DEMs lead by 115,416
cgbg also posts:
“Blitzer is having a worse evening than 2016.
I am not even sure he can make it through the whole broadcast.
He looks like he wants to hide under a desk and start crying.”
Reading the threads from the other side, especially Silver et al, it’s like we’re (or they’re) on a different planet. They are saying that Rs need at least a 300K lead to be even! A +2 or +3 R electorate wont’ cut it.
I suppose they believe that based on their polls where 10-15% of Rs are voting for Biden and they are winning NPAs by 20 points and more.
Live by the polls; die by the polls.
D turnout = 73.6%
R turnout = 78.9%
Both sides are probably near the 2016 turnout with the 9 counties not included. But look at Rs. I think they are going even higher than 81.2%. I’m floored at the turnout.
If this extends into other states...
“Live by the polls; die by the polls.”
Nate NEEDS the polls to be right or he is screwed.
2 elections in a row.
Are the 9 missing counties Trump counties?
5:28 update
181,236
+5029
Ohio!
Jamie Dupree
@jamiedupree
1h
While turnout in the city of Cleveland is currently just 48 percent, it is up in some of the suburban areas. But lower turnout in Cuyahoga County than 2016 is probably not on the wish list of Democrats in Ohio.
Nice Maricopa County AZ graph here:
https://twitter.com/sfalmy/status/1323739483636813825/photo/1
Rs +27k for day.
2016 was Trump with 89% of the GOP vote. That has to come from exits since it is a secret ballot.
Hillary got 90% of Dem votes. 1% diff.
Trump got a 4% edge with Indies.
That’s all from exits.
So basically they are asking for a 4% move in each parameter, R’s voting Biden, 4% more Ds voting Biden and about a big move in Indies away from Trump.
Point being re exits, Trump with 85% of Repubs is only a 4% move from 2016.
byecomey:
“5:23 update pushed in, but outage begins now. Will try and have it running again by 6:03 or 6:23. “
Net the 9 counties will be R votes.
And it kills MSM cock roaches like him to report it
Here are some of the counties that have hit 90% Rep. turnout in Florida or are on pace to hit 90%:
Collier—92% (Naples)
Sumter—90.5% (The Villages)
St. John-87% (exurban Jacksonville)
Lee——86.5% (SW FL)
Nassau-85% (NE FL)
Madison-85% (smaller county)
Pinellas—83% (St. Pete)
By contrast, only in 2 or 3 counties will Dems top 90% turnout-—Collier (88%), Sumter (85%), and Martin (83%). These are all very Trump counties.
Add that to the +51,000 going into today
ok. Thanks! (I’m a nervous wreck. Thanks for the Florida updates.)
“Here are the 5 pm numbers for Dade
115,097 voters today
DEM 41,534
REP 34,130
NPA 37,576
OTHER 1,857”
2016 was Trump with 89% of the GOP vote. That has to come from exits since it is a secret ballot.
Hillary got 90% of Dem votes. 1% diff.
Trump got a 4% edge with Indies.
That’s all from exits.
So basically they are asking for a 4% move in each parameter, R’s voting Biden, 4% more Ds voting Biden and about a big move in Indies away from Trump.
Point being re exits, Trump with 85% of Repubs is only a 4% move from 2016.
If they are expecting 20% Independents and 15% crossovers to D. I think we stand a much better chance of that NOT happening. They have to find a way to cut 200k+ republican advantage.
NV:
“More recent Washoe numbers from today: GOP+2,500. Erased early/mail ballot lead for Dems.
Remember that this does not include mail dropoff/mailed ballots received today, which is a black box all over.
But turnout in Clark and Washoe is not huge today. Washoe now at 73% overall.”
Two confirmed reports (multiple outlets):
1) Philly turnout is low
2) Memphis, TN turnout is low, but suburban turnout around Memphis is high.
3) Also, before voting started today, the black vote was at 27.6% of the EV in Georgia per the Elect Project. Dems need 32% to win POTUS. This % could go LOWER today, as Reps. will outnumber Dems today in voting. No way that Georgia is in play, and Perdue will crack 50%.
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