2016 was Trump with 89% of the GOP vote. That has to come from exits since it is a secret ballot.
Hillary got 90% of Dem votes. 1% diff.
Trump got a 4% edge with Indies.
That’s all from exits.
So basically they are asking for a 4% move in each parameter, R’s voting Biden, 4% more Ds voting Biden and about a big move in Indies away from Trump.
Point being re exits, Trump with 85% of Repubs is only a 4% move from 2016.
2016 was Trump with 89% of the GOP vote. That has to come from exits since it is a secret ballot.
Hillary got 90% of Dem votes. 1% diff.
Trump got a 4% edge with Indies.
That’s all from exits.
So basically they are asking for a 4% move in each parameter, R’s voting Biden, 4% more Ds voting Biden and about a big move in Indies away from Trump.
Point being re exits, Trump with 85% of Repubs is only a 4% move from 2016.
If they are expecting 20% Independents and 15% crossovers to D. I think we stand a much better chance of that NOT happening. They have to find a way to cut 200k+ republican advantage.