Posted on 11/03/2020 4:33:04 AM PST by springwater13
Republicans are up 20,000 in the first 20 minutes of voting. So far Republicans have a 32% advantage in the Florida Early Vote.
11m
How R is the FL turnout today?
In only THREE counties (heavily black Gadsden, +903) and neighboring Liberty +32), & Broward (+2356) are Ds in positive territory.
As I just posted to another reply, when you have a race decided 2%, whether Rep votes are 92% for Trump or 96% for Trump matters a lot. You cannot assume it is 100%.
So far, Reps outvoting Dems on Election Day by 190,743. Staggering.
Gadsden is the only minority majority county in the state. They aren’t going to get a whole lot more in total vote there.
I agree, but I’d think it more likely that there will be significantly more Democrat than Republican crossover voters.
We’ve all seen the enthusiasm gap between Biden and Trump. I’ve seen numbers that say 25-30% of attendees at Trump rallies (though not Florida, admittedly) weren’t Republicans. And I, personally, have seen a lot of “never-Trumpers” come around to support the president this time around.
Counts both ways. And so does turnout.
I look forward to the gnashing of teeth and flowing of tears.
In 2016, we won the House, because Republicans voted.
In 2018, we lost the House because Repubs stayed home, while Democrats came out and voted in close to the same numbers as from 2016.
In 2020, Repubs have come out to vote. I don't see a scenario where Trump wins and we DON'T re-take the House.
No. That assumes that party registration always reflects the vote for a candidate. It doesn't. Nobody will know what is in those votes until they are counted.
Of course it counts both ways. I said that. But the fact remains. Don't confuse these voter counts with votes.
The one poll I've seen on that said otherwise by a few points. For what that's worth.
Total FL vote count in 2016: 9,502,747
We could see a million more votes cast in FL in 2020 than 2016.
I thought I was bad ...
That’s great. Not relevant to what I was discussing, but great.
Biden Campaign Manager, Jen O’Malley Dillion, tells media Biden has several paths to 270, WITHOUT Florida and Pennsylvania...
Hmmmm. What does that tell us?
Don’t read into my words. I see people directly confusing voter count numbers with votes for Trump/Biden and have tried to explain the facts about that. I doesn’t reflect any sort of pessimism or optimism. It’s just a fact.
“No. That assumes that party registration always reflects the vote for a candidate.”
It doesn’t but intuition and common sense would tell us that with the Dems further lurch to the left there is a much more likely prospect that Democrats will crossover rather the Republicans.
That advantage could be half a % or 20 percent......Anyones guess.
Never forget, the same goes for Democrats, and I think there are a LOT of white Democrats who have had enough of having to "bend the knee" to the race hustlers.
Steve Bannon mentioned a computer program called “scorecard” does anyone know anything about that?
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