Posted on 11/01/2020 5:51:10 AM PST by SpeedyInTexas
VBM Ballots - DEMs lead by 653,646
In-Person Early Voting - REPs lead by 558,741
Combined Early Voting - DEMs lead by 94,905
I just got an alert from the WSJ that says Biden up nationally by 10.
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For that to be true ALL of the following would ALSO have to be true!
1. Biden gets 93% plus of the Dem vote locked
2. Biden gets 95% of the Black Vote
3. Biden gets 80% plus of the Hispanic Vote
4. Biden gets 15-20% of Reps crossing over to vote D
5. Biden gets the gender gap of no less than 20% for women and tied among men.
If you believe ALL of the above...please DM me as I have oceanfront property for you in.....Kansas!
I agree.
Richard Baris does say it differs by state, however if all the swing states are swaying one way, I would think indy voters are contributing to that.
That would be great! I used to go to 10 or 15 election sites at once for key counties to get a sense of things. Your model is so easy and simple.
Do you have 3 bedroom with deck ?
Asking for a friend of Nate Silver
Do you have 3 bedroom with deck ?
Asking for a friend of Nate Silver
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I already closed on him yesterday. Threw him a Bridge here in NYC as an extra bonus (not the BKLYN one since that one was already sold to that other character named Nate Cohen)....LOL! :)
Correct! All about the denominators. Numerators more important for mid-terms. Denominators more important for General elections.
Ouch. Man what a miserable night.
In Florida and PN. you have to take into consideration how many Dems are voting Trump there’re are thousands of registered Dems EXCEPT the HATERS that are voting Trump we won’t know that until the ballots are counted!!
“Ouch. Man what a miserable night.”
What happened?
“There are not quite 3 million voters who voted in either 16 or 18 left to vote. Republicans have a slight edge, maybe 150K voters”
I just remember the gut-punch when McCain lost. Wasn’t a great night.
Kind of disappointing Schale memo in that very details were released.
What are racial/gender/age of those voting? nothing
“I just remember the gut-punch when McCain lost. Wasn’t a great nigh”
oh yea.
I remember telling a friend in 2008 that Rs have 2 secret weapons. Hillary and Obama. Neither could win a general election.
Was only 1/2 right.
Kind of disappointing Schale memo in that very FEW details were released.
Larry says:
Larry Schweikart
@LarrySchweikart
Hearing major movement toward Trump in WI.
Of course Ralston thinks Biden takes NV. Waiting for his final prediction.
In 2016 he predicted a Clinton 6 point win. Was 2.6.
I think he predicts a much smaller win this time.
I predict, he predicts 3 point Biden win.
We knew the one early. When Indiana flirted with going for Bonzo, that was OVER.
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