Florida Early Vote update, 10/30/2020

ElectionCZAR ^ | 10/30/2020 | self

[SpeedyInTexas]

VBM Ballots - DEMs lead by 637,912

In-Person Early Voting - REPs lead by 474,229

Combined Early Voting - DEMs lead by 163,683

[Ken H]

Here’s the interview with Carr where the comment came from. Start at 15m 25s => https://www.newsmaxtv.com/Shows/Spicer-and-Co

Here is the quote => “I was just looking at a model a while ago where it even had it up to 295.”

That’s kind of an odd way to phrase it. I’m thinking he meant to say 395. Regardless, it did not sound like he was giving a definitive answer.

[Ken H]

See post #401

[SmokingJoe]

Conversation
Peoples_Pundit
Peoples_Pundit
Riddle me this...

I was a loser in my own industry and was thrown out for being a failure.

Now I pretend to be a “guru” in another industry I know nothing about. But a whole lot of rich people fund my failures and help me cover it up...

Who am I?

Answer: Nate Silver.

[byecomey]

Bah! Okay I’ll do 99K.

[Lower Deck]

I was simply making up numbers to make a point.

All your numbers? Or just that one?

[Coop]

Every single one. And all the links I provide, they’re all fabricated.

[janetjanet998]

527,612 114,261 641,873

SAT starting points

[Rumierules]

527,612 114,261 641,873

SAT starting points
___________________

IPEV, D-R, and VBM, correct?

[Coop]

I hope you’re right. Otherwise the campaign is saying his ceiling is 295, which just doesn’t jive with my observations/expectations. But of course I could be very wrong with my predictions.

[Coop]

I want be sure of what is being posted... The 114k dem lead... This is based on solely the number of registered d that voted compared to the number of registered r? It DOESN’T account for the democrats who may have Actually voted r?

Correct. We have no way of knowing how many Repubs are voting for Biden or Dems are voting for Trump. So we monitor partisan numbers of ballots cast and assume indies are splitting 50/50 (although some folks make assumptions on crossovers and independents, of course). Only time will tell us the real story.

[Coop]

When did you start? IPEV is already showing a GOP lead of 528,855. That’s quite a jump. Could have rolled in the lagging counties.

[janetjanet998]

When did you start? IPE

6 am LOL

some polls open at 6am...most 7am

also a hand full of red counties open later and close earlier

—

looks like the Sarasota , Polk, Miami-dade data dump just hit

good news a large net increase

but REP lost about 1400 EPEV in Miami DADE

[Reagan80]

In person early voting lead for the R’s now 532562;

with the D lead down to just 111,819 for the combined in-person and by mail early voting already this morning.

A very scary Halloween situation for the folks across the aisle:

8328391
88.41% of 2016 total turnout
126.05% of 2016 EV turnout
D-R gap (raw): 111819

2016 EV D-R ratio: 39.80% D - 38.34% R, Gap:1.46%
2020 EV D-R ratio:39.47% D - 38.13% R, Gap: 1.34%
0.12% Advantage Trump

[Reagan80]

OK, so - The R’s gained 867 votes (111,819 gap down to 110,952) since the last update; during a period when 8,218 votes were cast. This represents a Republican advantage current voting percentage in ballots cast of 55.2% to 44.8%, or 10.4 percentage points! If that ratio holds up (and my guess it is it increases as the D’s simply ‘run out’ of voters), the R ballot lead would take place when just 1,066,847 more ballots are cast.

As several have pointed out, that does not mean that there is not cross-party voting for the candidates, but 1.1 million votes from now, there is no disputing that the R’s will have the ballot lead; which at this point may occur by 8am election day morning.

8336609
88.50% of 2016 total turnout
126.18% of 2016 EV turnout
D-R gap (raw): 110952

2016 EV D-R ratio: 39.80% D - 38.34% R, Gap:1.46%
2020 EV D-R ratio:39.46% D - 38.13% R, Gap: 1.33%
0.13% Advantage Trump

[Owen]

Lots of unlabeled granularity.

The number that matters is the Dem lead. All the other numbers are personal projection comparisons and other things the casual reader won’t have followed.

All that matters is the Dem lead vs 2016’s Dem lead at this point.

The byte guy’s map says 101K Dem lead.

[CarolinaReaganFan]

great interview.Thanks. I heard that and Towry’s.
Found it interestin that they did not call out media polls for deliberate disinfomation but credited the shy voter phenomena.

[CarolinaReaganFan]

RE: 2016 MIV + IPEV

---

90K or 96K?
or was the extra 6K what was counted on ED from Monday before?

[Owen]

I have seen 90K. I have seen 87K. I have seen 96K. It’s hard to track down.

I think the variance is early votes that arrived by mail later.