OK, so - The R’s gained 867 votes (111,819 gap down to 110,952) since the last update; during a period when 8,218 votes were cast. This represents a Republican advantage current voting percentage in ballots cast of 55.2% to 44.8%, or 10.4 percentage points! If that ratio holds up (and my guess it is it increases as the D’s simply ‘run out’ of voters), the R ballot lead would take place when just 1,066,847 more ballots are cast.
As several have pointed out, that does not mean that there is not cross-party voting for the candidates, but 1.1 million votes from now, there is no disputing that the R’s will have the ballot lead; which at this point may occur by 8am election day morning.
8336609
88.50% of 2016 total turnout
126.18% of 2016 EV turnout
D-R gap (raw): 110952
2016 EV D-R ratio: 39.80% D - 38.34% R, Gap:1.46%
2020 EV D-R ratio:39.46% D - 38.13% R, Gap: 1.33%
0.13% Advantage Trump
Lots of unlabeled granularity.
The number that matters is the Dem lead. All the other numbers are personal projection comparisons and other things the casual reader won’t have followed.
All that matters is the Dem lead vs 2016’s Dem lead at this point.
The byte guy’s map says 101K Dem lead.