Florida Early Vote update, 10/29/2020

ElectionCZAR ^ | 10/29/2020 | self

[SpeedyInTexas]

“Biden campaign‘s decision to discourage field staff from knocking on doors during the pandemic and its subsequent delay in greenlighting — and funding — a return to door-to-door canvassing.”

I’ve said if Trump wins history is going to blame Biden’s lack of a ground game.

Rs were knocking on 1 million doors a week.

The blame game starts even before the voting ends...

[SpeedyInTexas]

bort, I see your name around twitter land.

[byecomey]

I don’t know what to say except I’m a nobody who’s deeply humbled, and all credit goes to God.

I would not have keep pushing myself for the website if it weren’t for your community here and encouragement.

[Cathi]

I agree with Newt Gingrich’s analysis:

“Gingrich: Map Of Trump With 326 Electoral Votes Looks Right, “Left Is Going To Be Terribly Shocked””

[byecomey]

And if I may pontificate on a religious point further, instead of being impressed with me, you should be impressed with how the Almighty can make so much happen using one person of little importance.

I don’t know what will come of the election. But I do know God is working in it.

[Cathi]

Trump’s ground game preparations actually began the day after he was inaugurated.

[byecomey]

Keep analyzing, please!!

[SpeedyInTexas]

“I don’t know what will come of the election.”

Well, I do. Trump wins. America wins.

I’m never short of an opinion. Don’t be afraid to ask...

[byecomey]

Amazing you’re tracking all these numbers. I certainly don’t have the overhead to do this.

[janetjanet998]

So your conclusion for Sunday is could be a wash?

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it is a huge wild card

right now I have them at +25K net for the day

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some of my guessimates this evening vs last evening (just for fun)

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)from 10/28)
lets say we end today at 204 (actual: 201 net +3K good guys)
take off 40K tomorrow (actual 41 when sarasota/polk comes in +1K good guys )
Friday 38K net rep no change
Sat: +29 now net rep vs +27 due to less expected dem mail in net (good guys +2K)

Dems +93K going into Sunday

DEMS +25K NET SUNDAY
Dems +10K NET MONDAY (may have to lower if mail in remain low Rep should pick up 1000 votes in Bay/Gulf that day so mail ins would have to be +11K)

I am going with DEMS +128K election day now versus +135K last night

but REPS could over perform on SAT

again Sunday I really have no idea and it could be +/- 10K that 25K dem net

[bort]

Amen.

[janetjanet998]

Keep analyzing, please!!
—

OK..I am sure I am making some errors in my haste trying to do this for fun in between work and other busy things LOL

where are todays Sarasota numbers? no evening dump like last night?

[SpeedyInTexas]

In more random news:

Here is the Mandalorian Season 2 schedule with a new episode tomorrow. You are welcome.

The Mandalorian season 2, episode 1: Oct. 30
The Mandalorian season 2, episode 2: Nov. 6
The Mandalorian season 2, episode 3: Nov. 13
The Mandalorian season 2, episode 4: Nov. 20
The Mandalorian season 2, episode 5: Nov. 27
The Mandalorian season 2, episode 6: Dec. 4
The Mandalorian season 2, episode 7: Dec. 11
The Mandalorian season 2, episode 8: Dec. 18

[byecomey]

Good to know.

[byecomey]

Decided to not to dump them tonight. Two reasons why:

1. The county reported numbers on the evening before were different than the official numbers the morning after - by a few dozen votes, but still.

2. It caused a bit of psychological pain when I dumped in the Miami-Dade numbers in the morning which made the map go backwards.

[LS]

Hear! Hear!

Byecomey’s work has been legendary. I mean, we all did some numbers stuff in the last election, but to craft such a powerful web took that EVERYONE quotes is something special.

[janetjanet998]

Decided to not to dump them tonight. Two reasons why:

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Ok then the Dems will be happy that todays net Rep gain on your site is “only” 38,300ish

but what most don’t know is that includes no Sarasota at all since yesterdays got dumped last evening and todays voting will get dumped tomorrow

plus assuming POLK gets fixed tomorrow it will have TWO days worth of data

[byecomey]

Yep, it’s actually a 41K day (plus missing Polk data which probably boosts it another 1K) but it is what it is.

I think Polk will report in the daily totals if nothing else. So they’ll roll out with Sarasota and Miami-Dade. The site will catch up.

[DaxtonBrown]

I’m going out on a limb, will know with Friday’s SOS numbers. Nvada by 1%

Anyone have a guess on Wisconsin?

[Salamander]

So many of us are literally balanced on your words.

“Thank you” beggars our real feelings.