Posted on 10/29/2020 6:10:44 AM PDT by SpeedyInTexas
VBM Ballots - DEMs lead by 631,436
In-Person Early Voting - REPs lead by 424,522
Combined Early Voting - DEMs lead by 206,914
And Gary Johnson took another 3.2 points, most of it presumably from Trump's hide (as he only had about 75% GOP approval).
If Trump only wins TX by 5-6 points, I think this will be a very unhappy forum next week. I'm counting on a good 10-point victory.
AZ now 55k. Seems only 3-4 days ago it was over 100k.
https://www.saguarostrategies.com/arizona-ballot-returns
Clinton got 43.24% in 2016. I predict Biden gets a higher percentage in Texas.
You can tell me next Wednesday I was right.
And you can return the favor if/when Trumps wins 55 - 44%. :-)
Deal!
Keeping track of my predictions:
1). Trump wins Florida
2). Trump gets higher percentage in Miami than Palm Beach
3). Biden gets higher than 43.24% of vote in Texas
Sounds about right to me... And, I will accept that!
“Top U.S. officials were briefed on an active threat against Pentagon leaders, say five officials
Some officials said the briefings suggested the threat may be potential retaliation for the U.S. military’s killing of Iranian Gen. Qassem Soleimani.”
Iran is playing with fire. Trump isn’t Obama. He will squash them.
“There’s growing evidence in the EV/AB data Trump may be shifting the composition of the electorate in his favor in some key states. The presidential race, and the battle for the Senate, are much closer now then they were weeks ago, and closer than what the CW would indicate.”
Who said this?
Like clockwork. Following the NM and NV Reps.
https://twitter.com/robertblizzard/status/1321912391710507013
For those who don’t follow the lingo.
EV = Early Vote
AB = Absentee Ballots, aka VBM
CW = Conventional Wisdom
GOP Pollster
Probably Trafalgar’s final poll of Michigan, I’d guess. They are staking their reputation on being right.
“MICHIGAN
Trump 49% (+2)
Biden 47%
Jorgensen 2%
@trafalgar_group, LV, 10/25-28”
To be exact, 2.5% predicted win.
“Our new @trafalgar_group #2020Election #BattlegroundState #MIpoll conducted Oct 25-28 shows a steady Trump lead:
49.1% @realDonaldTrump,
46.6% @JoeBiden,
2.1% @Jorgensen4POTUS,
1.2% Other,
1.1% Und. See Report: https://thetrafalgargroup.org/news/mi-pres-102920/";
Gotta hand it to Cahaly (Trafalgar). He’s out on a limb. He either comes out this making tons of money or he’s done in the industry.
“There’s growing evidence in the EV/AB data Trump may be shifting the composition of the electorate in his favor in some key states. The presidential race, and the battle for the Senate, are much closer now then they were weeks ago, and closer than what the CW would indicate.” - Robert Blizzard (rep pollster)
I think that is what everyone viewing the VBM/INPEV numbers in this thread are also seeing. It’s not just happening in FL but in many states we’ve talked about. I think some analysts on the other side, and also NYT/Politico/Newsday are also getting bad vibes.
Bingo.
I hope he is right. He is definitely on a limb.
He will be the most famous pollster in the country or looking for a new line of work.
Alright. Mine are FL to Trump, 51-47; NC to Trump by 7-8 points, MN to Trump by 51-49. Hawaii to Biden 50-49. (just kidding on the last one)
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