NEVADA UPDATE/ANALYSIS
lS: “I haven’t talked to Rich about indies.
Team Trump told me that compared to 2016 they were “up with blacks, up with Hispanics, up with Mormons.”
From Ralston today:
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Updated, 6:30 AM, 10/29/20
Good morning, fellow ravenous data types.
The mail ballots in Clark County once again countered the in-person losses for the Dems by a couple of thousand votes, so now the firewall is at about 74,000. That’s greater than the 73,000 the Dems had at the end of early voting in 2016, but as I have said, there were 200,000 fewer voters then, so the extrapolated number would be 87,600.
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That means Ralston sees Biden (87,600 - 74,000) = 13,600 short of being equal to 2016 with two days of early in person vote left. But you can see the heavy Repub early vote here:
https://www.nvsos.gov/sos/home/showdocument?id=9054
IPEV is this morning D 118,000 R 178,500 for a difference of 60,500 R advantage with 2 days left. Assuming 10% of IPEV is left, that implies R’s will pick up 6,000 votes the last two days or maybe 12,000 votes. If you add that to what Ralston sees as the 13,600 shortfall from 2016 numbers from above, you get a range of 19,600 to 25,600 that Trump will do better, given everything equal to 2016. Trump only lost by 27,000.
Now take LS’s comments from above (blacks + Mormon + student shortfall) and you could guess Trump goes positive. Now add in SEIU/Culinary missing votes and crossovers because of Sisolak/Covid shutdown and Trump might win Nevada by a decent margin.
Is anything wrong with my analysis? I think we are all trying hard not to be over optimistic to avoid disappointment.
see post above
I have been operating on the assumption that black and Hispanic voters who support Trump have NOT switched parties and are mostly still registered Ds.
Nothing wrong with your analysis at all. You’re absolutely dead on.
I think your analysis is good and middle range(d). I have been trying to gauge the SEIU factor. Seems that many of their members are mad at Sisolak but determining how many votes that that converts to for Trump is elusive. Right now I believe that many will just sit the election out. Of course SEIU will fire up the payola buses and get some out for the small change they pay. The Mormon factor is very murky. One of my neighbors is a higher up in the church. He is all in for Trump, but I talk to other Mormons and they are wrapped up in the the way Trump “behaves”, but won’t necessarily vote for Biden.
Many people that I have been in contact with are completed dedicated to voting on election day and they are committed to Trump.
When I voted last week there were 27 people in line at 10am on Wednesday. The bulk of them were over 50 and there were no Biden stickers on the vehicles outside the library. There were 2 Trump bumper stickers and one hugh Trump flag on a pick-up. I took that as a good sign for Trump.
Completely unscientific but looking positive.
Here in Washoe it looks like we are winning on in person early voting but the Dems still have a big lead in mail-in returns. I expect that election day will be very busy.