(Based on latest Nevada Voting) “ Rep. Susie Lee(D) is a tad nervous“

/thenevadaindependent.com ^ | Oct 28, 2020 | Ralston

[11th_VA]

Updated, 10 PM, 102/28/20

Net loss of about 4,300 in urban Nevada in in-person voting -- mail will tell the tale when it comes in from Clark overnight.

Turnout in Clark was just under 28,000; Washoe was 7,000.

Scroll down for what has been happening so you don't exult or freak out too much.

More details in the morning...

Here’s the deep dive into key Clark County races – I would guess Rep. Susie Lee is a tad nervous, Rep. Steven Horsford not so much:

CD3 (Lee):

133,000 have voted early

GOP+22,000

131,000 people have voted by mail

Dems+34,000

Overall: Dems+12,000 out of 264,000 who have voted

4.5-percent lead (down a point from last update) —————————————————————- 51 percent of active voters have voted, so this is likely about 60 percent of the actual vote

CD4 (Clark part, which is 85 percent) (Horsford):

92,000 have voted early

GOP+7,500

90,000 voted by mail

D+31,000

Overall: D+23,500 out of 182,000 who have voted

13-percent lead (same as last update)

—————————————————————————

47 percent of active voters in, so well over half the vote

SD5 (Woodhouse)

Early: 22,000

GOP+3,000

Mail: 20,000

D+6,500

Overall: D+3,500 out of 42,000 who have voted

8.3 percent lead (barely down)

————————————————————————

50 percent of active voters have voted, so about 60 percent is in

SD6 (Cannizzaro)

Early: 22,000

GOP+3,000

Mail: 23,000

D+7,000

Overall: D+4,000 out of 45,000 who have voted

9 percent lead (down a point)

—————————————————————————-

Urban in-person updates coming later….

[DaxtonBrown]

NEVADA UPDATE/ANALYSIS

lS: “I haven’t talked to Rich about indies.

Team Trump told me that compared to 2016 they were “up with blacks, up with Hispanics, up with Mormons.”

From Ralston today:
****************************
Updated, 6:30 AM, 10/29/20

Good morning, fellow ravenous data types.

The mail ballots in Clark County once again countered the in-person losses for the Dems by a couple of thousand votes, so now the firewall is at about 74,000. That’s greater than the 73,000 the Dems had at the end of early voting in 2016, but as I have said, there were 200,000 fewer voters then, so the extrapolated number would be 87,600.
**********************

That means Ralston sees Biden (87,600 - 74,000) = 13,600 short of being equal to 2016 with two days of early in person vote left. But you can see the heavy Repub early vote here:

https://www.nvsos.gov/sos/home/showdocument?id=9054

IPEV is this morning D 118,000 R 178,500 for a difference of 60,500 R advantage with 2 days left. Assuming 10% of IPEV is left, that implies R’s will pick up 6,000 votes the last two days or maybe 12,000 votes. If you add that to what Ralston sees as the 13,600 shortfall from 2016 numbers from above, you get a range of 19,600 to 25,600 that Trump will do better, given everything equal to 2016. Trump only lost by 27,000.

Now take LS’s comments from above (blacks + Mormon + student shortfall) and you could guess Trump goes positive. Now add in SEIU/Culinary missing votes and crossovers because of Sisolak/Covid shutdown and Trump might win Nevada by a decent margin.

Is anything wrong with my analysis? I think we are all trying hard not to be over optimistic to avoid disappointment.

[DaxtonBrown]

see post above

[LS]

I have been operating on the assumption that black and Hispanic voters who support Trump have NOT switched parties and are mostly still registered Ds.

[nesnah]

“tad nervous” = crapping her drawers

[perfect_rovian_storm]

Nothing wrong with your analysis at all. You’re absolutely dead on.

[perfect_rovian_storm]

Have you seen Kevin McCullough’s video from yesterday on what both campaigns have told him about internals?

https://l.facebook.com/l.php?u=https%3A%2F%2Ftwitter.com%2FKMCRadio%2Fstatus%2F1321540916935446529%3Ffbclid%3DIwAR0iP7XQmmeYRZ9H02cWXIhh-o9RGrAsHO_McdCAeSmlsw9zsZxxQlIPedg&h=AT1d82LsHaW8QdJvJErVgUMPwyDZeytrPcwy1crAPHDaJpKFhm5WILeSS2WBKtW6UUp52xBvDXEMTtZ8CNTypLI6Ij-uI7JDVFhKNcLlt0Wk6G7zLSJa8CkKrA

I posted it to you on Twatter, but it didn’t actually go through for some reason. They also disappeared my earlier retweet of it.

[mad_as_he$$]

I think your analysis is good and middle range(d). I have been trying to gauge the SEIU factor. Seems that many of their members are mad at Sisolak but determining how many votes that that converts to for Trump is elusive. Right now I believe that many will just sit the election out. Of course SEIU will fire up the payola buses and get some out for the small change they pay. The Mormon factor is very murky. One of my neighbors is a higher up in the church. He is all in for Trump, but I talk to other Mormons and they are wrapped up in the the way Trump “behaves”, but won’t necessarily vote for Biden.

Many people that I have been in contact with are completed dedicated to voting on election day and they are committed to Trump.

When I voted last week there were 27 people in line at 10am on Wednesday. The bulk of them were over 50 and there were no Biden stickers on the vehicles outside the library. There were 2 Trump bumper stickers and one hugh Trump flag on a pick-up. I took that as a good sign for Trump.

Completely unscientific but looking positive.

Here in Washoe it looks like we are winning on in person early voting but the Dems still have a big lead in mail-in returns. I expect that election day will be very busy.

[Greetings_Puny_Humans]

Thanks for the thoughtful analysis.

I’d still rather see the ultimate civil war than let the left keep half the country.

What will you do in another 80 years when half of our half turns blue? Split again? And giving up states from the union will effectively destroy the whole.

[LS]

I can’t get this to play.

Can you summarize? I don’t have time to watch a long video anyway right now.

[perfect_rovian_storm]

Summary:

Public polls are crap. (duh..lol) Both campaigns (independent of each other) told Kevin that their internals are as follows:

PA Trump +3

FL Trump +3

NC Trump +2

MI Trump +3

WI Tied

AZ Trump +3

He didn’t give a number on MN, but said there was ‘work to be done’ there.

Apparently, according to him, BOTH campaigns are seeing these same numbers, each having no idea he is talking to the other one.

Oh, and the black vote going for Trump at 21%.

Take it for what you will... :-)

[LS]

This is what I’ve heard from Team Trump.

I think NC is REALLY low. REALLY low. Based on what bort says, I think NC will be substantially higher than 2016.

[LS]

BTW, if the black vote for Trump is 21%, there will be at least another 5% stay at home disgruntled with Biteme.

Now yer looking at a national black # of 5m-6m, added to a student shortfall of min. 1m, which would mean a shift of 7m.

[perfect_rovian_storm]

I agree...it’s way too low. Makes me wonder about the others.

[perfect_rovian_storm]

Agreed and that change in numbers could make even some of the rosier projections come in low. States that aren’t even really on the radar (VA for one) become really within the realm of possibility. I don’t want to get too happy too soon, but I definitely like the trends.

[Ravi]

You are spot on. This is from McDonald at GitHub:

NOTE: The Nevada Secretary of State combines statistics for voters with no party affiliation and all minor parties. Nevada is including “curable” rejected mail ballots in its total mail ballot return statistics. I exclude these ballots.

DEM 355,168 (40.7%)
REP 314,085 (36.0%)
NPA/MINOR 203,181 (23.3%)

Not sure if you're aware but there's a political party called "Independent American" that has about 80,000 registered voters in NV. My guess is they are a huge chunk of that NPA vote.

Needless to say they are not a left-leaning party.

[ridesthemiles]

WASHOE County is already counting mail in ballots...have been all week.

[DaxtonBrown]

“Independent American” from what I know are hardcore old west conservative. A lot of them will likely come over, since this is a live free or die in socialist chains election.

I’ll be doing some more Nevada number crunching the last days. I’ve known Ralston since 1992, hate his guts. Love to see him humiliated.

[11th_VA]

Check out these numbers

[DarthVader]

I’ve seen this data yesterday but these samples are not as large as what I am seeing but they are trending with what we are observing. We got a Colorado number last night which is starting to show the trend towards Trump. It is Trump 48-46. We also saw quite a few Dem House critters are falling behind in a few places even in Blue states. The polling data my friend and I are getting are detecting these shifts like a leading indicator as I have said.

[JamesP81]

If T really is +3 in PA and MI and really is getting 20% of black votes, then Biden is going to get curbstomped.