Posted on 10/28/2020 2:30:57 PM PDT by springwater13
There's still a couple hours of early voting left and Sarasota and Miami-Dade only update once a day so we are sure to be under 200k by close of business today.
Democrats early vote advantage in Florida for 2016 was around 100k so we will be ahead of 2016 by Friday and likely even or ahead by close of early voting on Sunday.
Democrat voters in Florida are scared of COVID and unlikely to come to in person voting on Election Day in large numbers. Republicans currently have a 15% statewide lead in in person early voting. Florida is locked up for Trump.
(Excerpt) Read more at joeisdone.github.io ...
Question,
Normally the Democrats do a good job in getting their voters to the polls and the Republicans at times do not.
It appears the Republicans are going to the polls for this election to vote mostly in person. I am wondering with all the COVID fear raised by the Democrats what percentage of their own voters will be a no show since time is running out for many states to get their mail in votes in.
It would appear the Dem mail in vote does not appear to be nearly enough to avoid getting swamped by a red wave. Will there be enough Dem’s to come out in person to buffer the wave?
Has anyone done any polling on who will not vote in person.
I am happy to report I saw a very hard hitting Trump TV ad in Spanish here in FL today. Targeting the radicalism of the Dems. Rioting, etc. It was so aggressive I thought it was a Pac ad but at the end it showed the official Trump campaign logo.
I also answered my own question. If you delete /florida at the end of the web address, it pulls up a few different states.
Make that only NC. Still, one more is better than none.
Someone needs to explain GOTV operations. How do the rallies help? If Trump didn’t have rallies (like Biden), how would GOTV be impacted and why? I’d be fascinated to know
Where are you seeing this data?
Hi where are you seeing 204,000?
Hi Where are you seeing 204K? I’m seeing 241K.
www.joeisdone.github
Does anyone have any early numbers out of New Hampshire or Maine (whole state, or by district)?
Any does anyone have any analysis on Iowa so far?
Thanks to anyone who responds!
*Correction*
New Mexico, not New Hampshire (no early voting).
Woo Hoo! - down to 200K gap already down from the 203K gap close from last night!
7434300
78.92% of 2016 total turnout
112.52% of 2016 EV turnout
D-R gap (raw): 200693
New Mexico Early Voting Statistics
Last Report: 10/28/2020
Source: Data Provided by New Mexico Department of State
Total Voted
In-Person Votes
Mail Ballots Returned
Requested Mail Ballots
Total Voted: 627,877
Total Voted by Party Registration
Party
Count
Percent
Democrats 313,232 49.9
Republicans 218,433 34.8
Minor 5,993 1.0
No Party Affiliation 88,173 14.0
TOTAL 627,877 100.0
Don’t panic - as always; R’s will hit the polls hard on election day....
I had no idea it was that bad in NM. Almost 1/3 more Ds than Rs. If every U voted R, it still wouldn’t be parity.
Gap Down another 6K to 194K!
7485885
79.47% of 2016 total turnout
113.30% of 2016 EV turnout
D-R gap (raw): 194330
2016 EV D-R ratio: 39.80% D - 38.34% R, Gap:1.46%
2020 EV D-R ratio:40.40% D - 37.80% R, Gap: 2.60%
1.14% Advantage Biden
From post 53 to post 55; an additional 51,585 Florida early votes had been counted.
Of those 51,585 votes, R’s closed the gap compared to D’s by 6,363 (200,693 down to 194,330)’ meaning R’s are casting at least a bit over 61.95% of the vote versus D votes.
All of that of course, excludes independents that voted in that 51,585 total. When you consider that some number of independents or third-party voters are also part of that 51,585 total (same 6,363 gap closure divided by a smaller denominator than 51,585), today’s ratio of R votes to D votes must be approaching 70% to 30% !
The gap has shrunk to 178,808 !
7627839
80.97% of 2016 total turnout
115.45% of 2016 EV turnout
D-R gap (raw): 178808
2016 EV D-R ratio: 39.80% D - 38.34% R, Gap:1.46%
2020 EV D-R ratio:40.22% D - 37.88% R, Gap: 2.34%
0.88% Advantage Biden
Gap in early voting down to 166,016 from 203,000+ this morning with some updates left to do most likely.
A pickup of another 37K today after 50K+ pickup days Tuesday and Wednesday.
Feeling good about where we are and are headed.
Biden ‘advantage’ in early voting running just 0.65% of 2016 and shrinking fast; that figure was well over 1.00% at lunchtime today. Possibly ‘advantage Trump’ by end of day tomorrow, Friday.
7711225
81.86% of 2016 total turnout
116.71% of 2016 EV turnout
D-R gap (raw): 166016
2016 EV D-R ratio: 39.80% D - 38.34% R, Gap:1.46%
2020 EV D-R ratio:40.11% D - 37.96% R, Gap: 2.15%
0.69% Advantage Biden
Us FReepers sincerely appreciate all of the hard work that so many here have done thus far keeping us all updated on the vote totals in various key states.
The results posted thus far have us all encouraged that our President will be re-elected. I am of the opinion that He will win going away. Further, I do believe the President’s coattails will be very long. I’m thinking a 3 seat Senate majority padding and a take-back of the House.
What’s missing, and we all can understand why, is the REAL breakdown of who voted for whom - Ds and Rs in this election. The totals only tell us who’s voted based on party affiliation. This election is very different.
I do sincerely believe on the evening of November 3rd, we shall all be partying quite hardily when the true returns come in and are reported.
I have 11/4 set as a vacation day, and have quite a store of fireworks for the previous evening.
By the way, you were right about the 204k, which was pretty close tot he final number.
But can you tell me where you were seeing it? That website really confuses me.
This one is more simple but it’s not updated until the day after:
http://www.electionczar.com/floridaearlyvote.html
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