Posted on 10/28/2020 8:58:27 AM PDT by Kaslin
A week-long trip through these Midwest battleground states talking with ordinary people convinced us the polls aren't telling the full story.
There’s something afoot in Michigan and Wisconsin. If you believe the polls, former Vice President Joe Biden is set to win both these states in November—battlegrounds President Donald Trump narrowly carried in 2016, and can ill afford to lose this time around.
Some pollsters say Biden is ahead by as much as 17 points in Wisconsin and a dozen points in Michigan, suggesting the Democrats have rebuilt their so-called “blue wall” in the industrial Midwest. If that’s true, the president’s path to reelection is in jeopardy. But then, the same pollsters also put Hillary Clinton comfortably ahead in both states just four years ago.
We just spent a week driving through Michigan and Wisconsin, talking with farmers, bartenders, politicians, priests, and ordinary voters, from suburban Detroit to western Wisconsin, and what we saw and heard left us with a very different impression: Trump’s support here is not reflected in the polls, and he might well win both states.
Just north of Detroit in Macomb County, which twice voted for Barack Obama but flipped for Trump four years ago, there were few signs of a robust Democratic ground game. We talked to one bar owner, a Democrat who volunteered for Obama’s reelection, who told us he’s worried Trump might win here again—not just because Trump supporters are so motivated, but because the neighbors and customers who tell him they’re not voting for Trump don’t seem excited about Biden.
Report From The Field: Michigan Swing Districts Still Love Trump https://t.co/fS020FcMRU @CBedfordDC @johnddavidson
— The Federalist (@FDRLST) October 6, 2020
Macomb County is where the term “Reagan Democrat” was popularized by Democratic pollster Stan Greenberg, who tracked the shift of white, working-class Democrats into the GOP from the 1960s to the 1980s. But after the county twice voted for Obama by wide margins, Greenberg and others wrote off the entire concept of Reagan Democrats, arguing that ideological sorting in American politics was mostly finished.
That analysis proved wrong—or at least it did for Macomb County, where Trump won in 2016 by a whopping 48,000 votes, helping him carry Michigan by less than 11,000 ballots. It was also wrong in Saginaw County about a hundred miles to the northwest, a working-class area that went for Obama by a dozen points but narrowly swung to Trump four years later.
What Macomb and Saginaw have in common is a heavy union presence. Although the UAW officially endorsed Biden in April, and a UAW spokesman assured us Trump doesn’t enjoy any more support among union members than Mitt Romney or John McCain did, the local GOP office in Saginaw told us they have a steady stream of union workers coming in and declaring they’ll be voting Trump.
NEW: Inside Our Rust Belt Road Trip | Get To Know 2020’s Swing-State Voters@johnddavidson & @CBedfordDC https://t.co/lbBmJgMWQG
— The Federalist (@FDRLST) October 27, 2020
We encountered the same in Wisconsin, where Trump is making up for a loss of support among college-educated women by continuing to mobilize working-class voters across the state as he did in 2016—seemingly even in overwhelmingly Democratic urban areas like Milwaukee.
We didn’t expect Trump support in deep-blue Milwaukee, but we found it stopping for a late dinner at a German restaurant downtown where an NBA playoff game played behind the bar. Like a lot of businesses downtown, the place was nearly empty thanks to newly reinstated COVID-19 restrictions. Shortly after we sat down, a pair of middle-aged men came in and asked somewhat sheepishly if it would be alright to turn on the vice presidential debate. “We don’t have a candidate,” one of them promised, “we just want to watch.” There was no protest from the few bar patrons, so on it went.
Over the next half-hour it became clear everyone at the bar was a Trump supporter, save a young barback. Before long, the group was openly booing Sen. Kamala Harris and pouring shots for Vice President Mike Pence.
That same night, the Milwaukee suburb of Wauwatosa shook with a Black Lives Matter riot that left shattered storefront windows and frightened residents. The rioters were angry that the district attorney had not criminally indicted an officer who fatally shot an armed black teenager back in February, and community business owners understood their frustrations, but also expressed anger at the destruction in their quiet town.
Wauwatosa and the counties surrounding Milwaukee are changing, they said, becoming more diverse, and in the process moving left. These are communities that once supported the more buttoned-up GOP of former House Speaker Paul Ryan, whose politics were more palatable to college-educated suburbanites.
"Hillary Clinton took Wisconsin for granted. Unfortunately for the Democrats, that does not appear to have changed."
A dispatch from @johnddavidson and @CBedfordDC's trip through the Midwest last week. pic.twitter.com/pQHbLZ533h
— The Federalist (@FDRLST) October 16, 2020
But where Trump is losing ground in suburbs, he’s gaining among the farmers, blue-collar workers, and rural residents of the Badger State. In the rolling dairy country north of Milwaukee, the dairymen aren’t deterred by a costly trade war: The president fought hard for fair competition, they say, and third-generation farmers understand the long game.
Further north still, in picturesque, lakeside Door County, a local Democratic store owner hopes his party can take back the county Obama won twice. But just as we heard in Michigan, he worries Biden’s invisible campaign is making the same mistakes an infamously absent Clinton made. In 2016, the state assemblyman told us, there wasn’t a Trump sign to be found. Today, they’re everywhere, and many who said they couldn’t vote for the brash New Yorker are now supportive.
In western Wisconsin, which helped Trump carry the state in 2016, the changing lines of the major parties were laid bare. At a pro-Trump ATV rally in Juneau County, which Obama won by a dozen points in 2012 and Trump won by three times that in 2016, the lone politician stood out in a crowd of beer drinkers and Trump flags. These voters weren’t the political type before, the one-time Obama voter who organized the rally told us. And they sure didn’t have any boat parades for Romney.
Our travels through the Michigan and Wisconsin counties that helped shake the country are admittedly anecdotal, but Trump energy—and a lack of Biden excitement—was everywhere, and enough to cast serious doubt on what the pundits are once again claiming. Trump faces strong headwinds in Wisconsin’s cities and suburbs, and his margins remain razor-thin in Michigan, but anyone who assumes these Midwestern swing states are a lock for Biden should think twice—and not rely so heavily on the polls.
Voter suppression/psy ops.
Welcome to the party I lurked from 2003 to 2016, when I retired from active duty.
I’ve long figured that DNC ad spending is a form of money laundering and a payoff scheme to the networks/broadcasters.
So, much of that money is earmarked as a return of capital to their supporters.
But yeah, I think now we know that Trump has a bigger lead than in 2016 based upon where Trump is spending his time. His path to victory is about MI/PA/WI... 3 traditionally blue states. Bush won without those states. They are frosting, not meat and potatoes. If Trump wins Florida and Ohio, notice nobody talking about Ohio... then the former three are padding.
Thanks man..
You sound like a red leg....am I right?
Correct, I wonder what gave me away?
Wild guess.
This is merely anecdotal, I know, but I am seeing far, far more Trump signs here in my Michigan town than 4 years ago. Not just small Trump signs, but billboard sized signs. I live in a neighborhood on a lake and people have Trump signs on their pontoons. My next door neighbors have a giant purple and white Trump banner laying flat on their roof. You can see it from across the lake. His support here is palpable. Remember, our governor is very unpopular and she stupidly picked a fight with Trump.
Welcome suaspontel37
>>In 1976 voters severely punished the GOP for Watergate
In 2020 voters will severely punish the DNC for it’s violent left wing tendencies and corruption<<
I think that’s a pretty good analysis, with one potential snag: In 1976 the mainstream media favored the same side they do today, the Democrats. And this year they’ve dialed their support all the way to the level of pure propagandizing.
But maybe we’re in the process of punishing them too, for their own corruption. Hopefully, that’s the case.
The mainstream media back then was afforded credibility and there were hardly any options. Today with the internet, people have found their own sources of news and information.
Dan Rather on election night 2000 killed off the credibility and ever since then the big media has become a lesser factor.
Look at today, the media is telling us that Trump is down 10pts to Biden. 4+ yrs ago and many/most of us would have believed it. Today? Nobody believes it.
The big factor of this election is going to be that Trump made big gains with women voters.
Sorry, that’s not correct. If Biden wins all three of those states (WI, PA, MI) and all the current RCP “leaning blue” states, he’ll have 272 electoral votes.
The chances that Trump were to win 2/3 of WI/PA/MI and lose, are only statistically possible. And if he wins those three, no way in hell he loses OH/FL.
If just 1/10 female Hillary voters switch to Trump, this party is wayyyy over.
Many of us forget how the left manipulated/distorted Trump to make him unappealing to female voters in 16. Those women have seen a Trump over the last 4 years that has certainly not behaved like the Slick Willy2 they were warned about.
>>The big factor of this election is going to be that Trump made big gains with women voters.<<
That would really surprise me. I think it’s more likely that the big factor will be the increase in GOP votes from black voters. I also think a larger percentage of Trump voters are messing with pollsters this time around, but that’s just a guess. For my part, I’m sure I’d lie to them this time around, but I haven’t been asked.
>>The chances that Trump were to win 2/3 of WI/PA/MI and lose, are only statistically possible. And if he wins those three, no way in hell he loses OH/FL.<<
You’re not addressing what I wrote. You said Trump can win without any of those three states. But if Biden gets all three, plus the leaning blue states, he wins with 272 EV’s.
I’m not sure which states are blue that Bush won. Bush won by securing OH and Florida. I suppose if Trump cannot win any of the Great Lakes 3, then he may also then lose FL. But that would be a surprise to me and everyone else around here.
Well, all I can say is that we’re going to find out soon thankfully. I’m so sick of this 2020 year...
Agreed. We’ve seen so many lies from the MSM over the last 4 years, blatantly more obvious than anytime before that, I don’t believe anything they are saying.
Bush won VA, NM, and CO in 2004, totaling 27 EV’s. They’re currently leaning blue and if Biden gets them, plus WI, MI, and PA, he’ll have 272 EV’s as I wrote. That’s the reason Trump is hitting the midwest hard now.
Here are the landslide numbers:
Trump wins MN, MI, PA, and WI in the Midwest, along with IA and OH, and takes back VA, NM, CO and even wins OR, plus taking FL, and NC in the south and Maine and NH in the Northeast. He’d win the Electoral College 362 to 176. That’s about the best he can do, and that’s wildly optimistic. But the routes to 270 are definitely there.
Same here, anecdotal, but definitely more than 2016. And people are not shy about Biden, they seem to be disgusted by the DNC’s BS process foisting that loser off on them. And people I don’t know well, when they talk about the election at all, in 2016 were all about Hillary, this year hardly anyone about Biden, but actually lots of favorable about Trump.
There really is a lot online including the network election night coverage which is fascinating. Every Midterm and Presidential election since 1948 is on youtube. You could also just wiki the election in question as they are generally accurate with regard to publicly available election results. GOP suffered landslide lost in Congress in ‘74 after Nixon resignation on Aug 9. In ‘76 Carter narrowly won presidency. Reagon then won in 1980 with a 45 State Landslide and picked up 13 seats in Senate.
Welcome brah.
I, too, was a newbie in 1999.
Now I am an oldie. :)
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