I’ve been watching twitter observers who have been watching EV in Texas. It’s heavily trending (R), more than expected, since Reps always prefer election day voting. The Dems are not turning out in EV in counties where they should be, even Austin suburbs.
Here’s the tip. TX is such an electoral prize that if it was in danger, you would see ‘Ol Joe campaigning there non-stop, but he never does. Potus doesn’t go either. It’s a safe bet. Poll is BS.
On youtube, you should check out this observer:
https://twitter.com/RealAPolitics
He puts out some short videos and goes over EV in many swing counties and swing states. He’s in WI, and knows it well, but his knowledge is very good about expectations of voting. Yes, he does use TargetSmart to compare 2016 EV to 2020 EV, and I’m still wary of the app (but it’s still showing good Rep numbers for EV despite its Dem company tweaking it for Biden).
I watched his analysis of Ohio EV and he says it’s coming in stronger for Trump already than in 2020. Same in TX (e.g Austin suburbs, Tarrant county) and WI. The ‘WOW’ counties in WI (a big key to winning WI), where Trump under-performed in 2016 (although he over-performed in rural counties), are coming in gangbusters, at Romney levels. Romney did really well in eastern WI but lost western WI back then.
This analyst is seeing that Trump EV is already overperforming in EV in areas across swing states where he under-performed e.g TX suburbs PLUS he’s still performing strongly in places where he over-performed in 2016. It’s so far looking very good, especially Reps aren’t supposed to be competitive in early voting at all.