Posted on 10/25/2020 6:45:39 AM PDT by SpeedyInTexas
Florida Update:
VBM Ballots - DEMs lead by 594,110
In-Person Early Voting - REPs lead by 230,261
Combined Early Voting - DEMs lead by 363,849
I’ve been watching twitter observers who have been watching EV in Texas. It’s heavily trending (R), more than expected, since Reps always prefer election day voting. The Dems are not turning out in EV in counties where they should be, even Austin suburbs.
Here’s the tip. TX is such an electoral prize that if it was in danger, you would see ‘Ol Joe campaigning there non-stop, but he never does. Potus doesn’t go either. It’s a safe bet. Poll is BS.
How can “you bet I’ll take your guns” and “I will abolish the oil industry” be ahead in Texas?
I know, it makes no sense at all. I haven’t been watching Texas because it is a sure thing. Was shocked when I saw it this morning.
It has to be wrong.
Also, if recent polling regarding Black support of Trump is to be believed, many of those black Dems are Trump votes.
I do think Dem strategists must be worried about NC and FL.
PredictIt now has NC and FL red.
AZ close to flipping.
VBM is rife with fraud. If the Rats take Florida, that’s where the foul deed will have been done.
Rs in Southeast Florida
Palm - 25.98%
Broward - 20.51%
Miami - 30.60%
I'm more concerned about all the NYC area snowbirds who will be flocking to vote there. But by and large, I'm not concerned about Florida. I think Trump has incredible support there and every Trump supporter will get themselves to the polls.
Lol. I’ll have the NC map done today. I coded the tricky part up (much more difficult than FL). Just need to go to church first.
True. I think we saw the effect of yesterday’s S-T-P Day. While overall turnout was down a bit, the net decrease in the total (VBM+EV) was down from 50K to about 24K. D EV did go up. Probably same effect today if STP gathers steam.
“TX early/mail votes cast so far in 2020, as share of total 2016 votes cast:
Clinton-won counties: 60%
Trump-won counties: 59%”
Nearly even. That means Trump takes Texas by 800,000 like 2016.
https://twitter.com/Politics_Polls/status/1320358544533819394
NEW Post Debate @trafalgar_group Poll (10/24):
MICHIGAN
Trump 49% (+2)
Biden 47%
Jorgensen 2%
.
FLORIDA
Trump 49% (+2)
Biden 47%
Jorgensen 2%
.
ARIZONA
Trump 50% (+3)
Biden 47%
Jorgensen 2%
Also, yesterday’s M-D EV came in and Rs again had a better day (+1100 net). Maybe there aren’t that many blacks in M/D. Broward did see higher D EV yesterday and same this morning.
On youtube, you should check out this observer:
https://twitter.com/RealAPolitics
He puts out some short videos and goes over EV in many swing counties and swing states. He’s in WI, and knows it well, but his knowledge is very good about expectations of voting. Yes, he does use TargetSmart to compare 2016 EV to 2020 EV, and I’m still wary of the app (but it’s still showing good Rep numbers for EV despite its Dem company tweaking it for Biden).
I watched his analysis of Ohio EV and he says it’s coming in stronger for Trump already than in 2020. Same in TX (e.g Austin suburbs, Tarrant county) and WI. The ‘WOW’ counties in WI (a big key to winning WI), where Trump under-performed in 2016 (although he over-performed in rural counties), are coming in gangbusters, at Romney levels. Romney did really well in eastern WI but lost western WI back then.
This analyst is seeing that Trump EV is already overperforming in EV in areas across swing states where he under-performed e.g TX suburbs PLUS he’s still performing strongly in places where he over-performed in 2016. It’s so far looking very good, especially Reps aren’t supposed to be competitive in early voting at all.
Thanks very much! I appreciate you making my morning much better than it was an hour ago...:-)
Seeing Dade and Palm Beach counties in neutral White.....OH MY GOD! For anybody who doesn’t know my native Florida well, that means everything. 2 of the 3 counties of Greater Miami are not even firmly in the Democrat column?
Also, since I’m from Jax originally I can tell y’all, pay no mind to Duval being in the White right now. Its going to be bright red like always come election day.
Trump is going to romp in Florida.
Excellent point! Almost all Ds are going nuts about TX turnout, with the exception of Wasserman. He actually said the top 10 R counties are showing greater turnout and the D counties, especially Hispanic D counties are not showing the same higher level turnout percentage.
I expect POTUS to win TX with a higher percentage than 2016
“78.5 would make it a close race but a losing race -———— Can you clarify?”
1/2 of Ds voting by mail so we get a good idea of their final turnout by using VBM returns.
In 2016, 74.4% of registered Ds voted. 81.2% of Rs voted.
That year, even with a 300k registered vote lead, 60,000 more Rs voted. A result of 81 vs 74 voting.
This year, Rs have narrowed the registered vote lead to 134k. Voter registration has ended in Florida for this election.
Registered Ds - 5,303,254. 78.5% voting = 4,163,054
Registered Rs - 5,169,102. 81.2% voting = 4,197,310
That would be 34k R lead. Assume crossover votes cancel each other out. Plus Trump won Indys by 50k in 2016. That turnout would indicate to me an 84k Trump win. Smaller than 113k in 2016.
I think Ds need to get close to 80.5% to win Florida.
If D turnout peters out in the home stretch and is closer to 74.4%, no chance.
Of course, Indys could swing the other way in this election, vote in huge numbers for Biden and tip the election. I wouldn’t count on it.
Indy turnout in 2016: 63%. Considerable lower than Ds at 74 and Rs at 81.
ONLY 10 days to SAVE OUR REPUBLIC..
Please Christian brother and sister...pray RIGHT NOW...STOP what you are doing..kneel down and ask God in the name of Jesus to ‘restore America’ and protect President Trump.
Please, please....Do It NOW...
... this IS the most powerful HOPE for our Republic...
Please ...... PRAY RIGHT NOW...
May God Bless America.
I will repost this MOST critical post ‘repeatedly’ from now until the election. Pray that we all truly begin to pray.
Your brother, in the love of Jesus, RevelationDavid.
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