Posted on 10/24/2020 6:47:37 AM PDT by SpeedyInTexas
Florida Update:
VBM Ballots - DEMs lead by 582,821
In-Person Early Voting - REPs lead by 192,706
Combined Early Voting - DEMs lead by 390,115
I don’t know whose spreadsheet that is.
I was using it before byecomey’s map came online.
Some lib who goes by UMichvoter on Twit.
Thanks
Wow. I guess it’s technically possible that they’ll turn out on Election Day, but I just can’t imagine that happening.
I’ll fulfill your request to add voter registration denominators. It won’t be much work if I can find the data source. Do you want to narrow it by active registrations or all registrations?
Seeing those Miami-Dade and Hillsborough numbers are a fantastic way to start a Saturday morning.
Run it up today, Florida.
Active registrations but really don’t have to do that. Just appreciate what you have done already.
Meh. I wouldn’t do this if I didn’t enjoy it.
I was going to also add a detailed NPA breakdown. (Where they are coming from, etc)
Thanks for the data source. I’ll update when the baby naps.
Great news on Wisconsin!
Here’s an update on NC: Get this, according to TargetSmart—and this is not a “model” but, rather, is actual voter file data—in the early voting, more Republicans are listed as “first time voters” than Democrats (91K vs. 86K). First time voters are those who are registering to vote for their first time or they moved in from outside NC after the 2016 election.
My educated guess is that Trump’s ground game combined with the student shortfall is producing this shocking number.
I think the key to looking at WI is Milwaukee Cty. Dane is going to Dane. No matter what, those uber-liberals will show up. But Milwaukee Cty saw the greatest decrease in turnout in the entire state in 2016. Voters just didn’t show up to vote for Hillary.
So comparing just Milwaukee Cty, right now in EV it’s 15.5% of the state total. In 2016, the final number was 14.8%. It’s probably going to be up a little over that 14.8% 2016 number but hopefully the WOW counties will increase as well (they were also down 2012 -> 2016) to offset that number.
“91K vs. 86K”
Oh Yea. Just Win Baby.
Check out this very interesting presidential election historical chart.
https://twitter.com/realikamusume/status/1319842199719317504/photo/1
“Every time FL moves right [conservative], PA & MI move with it. No exception since 1968. If Trump wins FL by more than 1.2 pts, he will also increase his margins in PA & MI.”
Nice find.
This is from the same odd twitter account. Between photos of Japanese anime, they publish amazing election analysis. It’s an odd combo for sure. Their state-by-state analyses are detailed, and not attributed to any company or organization.
Here’s the one from October 7 for Florida:
https://twitter.com/realikamusume/status/1313967789498077184/photo/1
Their Cliff notes:
- Last time FL failed to vote for incumbent was 1980
- There is a reason Biden isn’t visiting FL
- Dems barely grew in Broward, lost ground in Palm Beach and Miami, whereas the Panhandle has grown in strength, resembling the Georgia rurals
Another nice find
Some Wisconsin big macro info, raw population change by city, not registered, raw population.
https://www.wpr.org/wisconsins-population-growing-while-milwaukees-continues-decline
Synopsis
Madison has been growing. Tech industry. Ditto Dane county in general. But Milwaukee is shrinking. Note the bar charts included 2016, so there was a win regardless of some of this. Milwaukee’s 0.5% loss overwhelms big % gains in smaller towns.
Did I just read the interactive map that has reps cutting vote to 211k plus dims? Amazing come back for the reps in FL.
Sorry that was the reps ipev plus.
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