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Florida Early Vote update, 10/24/2020
ElectionCZAR ^ | 10/24/2020 | self

Posted on 10/24/2020 6:47:37 AM PDT by SpeedyInTexas

Florida Update:

VBM Ballots - DEMs lead by 582,821

In-Person Early Voting - REPs lead by 192,706

Combined Early Voting - DEMs lead by 390,115


TOPICS: News/Current Events
KEYWORDS: earlyvoting; elections; florida
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To: SpeedyInTexas
Whose spreadsheet is this?
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/17YKazYaUMZ33vmd4YHDKcVdlTkP5DmnHQQlAttwOzL0/htmlview?pru=AAABdWYQ84M%2AEI5XNu4rh9vDjnhpxTQ4Yg#
41 posted on 10/24/2020 7:45:43 AM PDT by Ravi
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To: Ravi

I don’t know whose spreadsheet that is.

I was using it before byecomey’s map came online.


42 posted on 10/24/2020 7:55:21 AM PDT by SpeedyInTexas (Localization, not Globalization)
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To: Ravi

Some lib who goes by UMichvoter on Twit.


43 posted on 10/24/2020 7:57:43 AM PDT by southpaw1
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To: byecomey; LS; Coop; SpeedyInTexas; bort
Nice.
Quick WI update. 1.58 million ballots cast (53% of 2016 turnout). Dane/Milwaukee down to 28.8% share of the vote. Their share began dropping once in-person voting began on the 20th. Their share at the end of the election in 2016 was 25.2%. I think they'll end up contributing less than 25% of the vote this year. Interesting
44 posted on 10/24/2020 7:58:16 AM PDT by Ravi
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To: southpaw1

Thanks


45 posted on 10/24/2020 7:58:43 AM PDT by Ravi
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To: Ravi

Wow. I guess it’s technically possible that they’ll turn out on Election Day, but I just can’t imagine that happening.

I’ll fulfill your request to add voter registration denominators. It won’t be much work if I can find the data source. Do you want to narrow it by active registrations or all registrations?


46 posted on 10/24/2020 8:00:09 AM PDT by byecomey
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To: SpeedyInTexas

Seeing those Miami-Dade and Hillsborough numbers are a fantastic way to start a Saturday morning.

Run it up today, Florida.


47 posted on 10/24/2020 8:03:07 AM PDT by Florida1181
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To: byecomey

Active registrations but really don’t have to do that. Just appreciate what you have done already.


48 posted on 10/24/2020 8:16:29 AM PDT by Ravi
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To: byecomey

https://dos.myflorida.com/elections/data-statistics/voter-registration-statistics/bookclosing/


49 posted on 10/24/2020 8:17:42 AM PDT by Ravi
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To: Ravi

Meh. I wouldn’t do this if I didn’t enjoy it.

I was going to also add a detailed NPA breakdown. (Where they are coming from, etc)

Thanks for the data source. I’ll update when the baby naps.


50 posted on 10/24/2020 8:19:47 AM PDT by byecomey
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To: Ravi; byecomey; LS; Coop; SpeedyInTexas

Great news on Wisconsin!

Here’s an update on NC: Get this, according to TargetSmart—and this is not a “model” but, rather, is actual voter file data—in the early voting, more Republicans are listed as “first time voters” than Democrats (91K vs. 86K). First time voters are those who are registering to vote for their first time or they moved in from outside NC after the 2016 election.

My educated guess is that Trump’s ground game combined with the student shortfall is producing this shocking number.


51 posted on 10/24/2020 8:19:57 AM PDT by bort
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To: Ravi

I think the key to looking at WI is Milwaukee Cty. Dane is going to Dane. No matter what, those uber-liberals will show up. But Milwaukee Cty saw the greatest decrease in turnout in the entire state in 2016. Voters just didn’t show up to vote for Hillary.
So comparing just Milwaukee Cty, right now in EV it’s 15.5% of the state total. In 2016, the final number was 14.8%. It’s probably going to be up a little over that 14.8% 2016 number but hopefully the WOW counties will increase as well (they were also down 2012 -> 2016) to offset that number.


52 posted on 10/24/2020 8:26:55 AM PDT by southpaw1
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To: bort

“91K vs. 86K”

Oh Yea. Just Win Baby.


53 posted on 10/24/2020 8:37:10 AM PDT by SpeedyInTexas (Localization, not Globalization)
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To: SpeedyInTexas

Check out this very interesting presidential election historical chart.

https://twitter.com/realikamusume/status/1319842199719317504/photo/1

“Every time FL moves right [conservative], PA & MI move with it. No exception since 1968. If Trump wins FL by more than 1.2 pts, he will also increase his margins in PA & MI.”


54 posted on 10/24/2020 8:42:17 AM PDT by plushaye (God wins! Anarchy begone in Jesus Name!)
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To: plushaye

Nice find.


55 posted on 10/24/2020 8:47:06 AM PDT by SpeedyInTexas (Localization, not Globalization)
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To: plushaye

This is from the same odd twitter account. Between photos of Japanese anime, they publish amazing election analysis. It’s an odd combo for sure. Their state-by-state analyses are detailed, and not attributed to any company or organization.
Here’s the one from October 7 for Florida:

https://twitter.com/realikamusume/status/1313967789498077184/photo/1

Their Cliff notes:
- Last time FL failed to vote for incumbent was 1980
- There is a reason Biden isn’t visiting FL
- Dems barely grew in Broward, lost ground in Palm Beach and Miami, whereas the Panhandle has grown in strength, resembling the Georgia rurals


56 posted on 10/24/2020 8:54:50 AM PDT by plushaye (God wins! Anarchy begone in Jesus Name!)
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To: plushaye

Another nice find


57 posted on 10/24/2020 9:41:38 AM PDT by Ravi
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To: All

Some Wisconsin big macro info, raw population change by city, not registered, raw population.

https://www.wpr.org/wisconsins-population-growing-while-milwaukees-continues-decline

Synopsis
Madison has been growing. Tech industry. Ditto Dane county in general. But Milwaukee is shrinking. Note the bar charts included 2016, so there was a win regardless of some of this. Milwaukee’s 0.5% loss overwhelms big % gains in smaller towns.


58 posted on 10/24/2020 9:46:34 AM PDT by Owen
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To: Owen

Did I just read the interactive map that has reps cutting vote to 211k plus dims? Amazing come back for the reps in FL.


59 posted on 10/24/2020 9:53:15 AM PDT by rlbedfor
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To: rlbedfor

Sorry that was the reps ipev plus.


60 posted on 10/24/2020 9:55:24 AM PDT by rlbedfor
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