Posted on 10/23/2020 12:42:31 PM PDT by 11th_VA
Tens of millions of people who have chosen not to vote in recent U.S. elections could be headed to the polls this November in a massive wave that would change the look and feel of the presidential contest, according to a newly published study of “chronic non-voters.”
The sweeping survey of thousands of inactive voters and eligible but unregistered adults, commissioned last summer by the Miami-based John S. and James L. Knight Foundation, found that roughly half of those interviewed were “absolutely certain” they’ll vote in 2020. And given estimates that 100 million eligible adults skipped the last presidential election, that could mean a surge of unlikely voters.
But a sudden uptick in participation wouldn’t necessarily benefit one party. The number of voters who said they’ll vote to reelect Trump was roughly the same as those who said they’ll vote for his eventual Democratic opponent.
... Among those who plan to vote, the largest factor motivating their decision to participate this year was Trump, regardless of whether they support or oppose the president.
... But of those surveyed, the number likely to vote for Trump was roughly equal to the number planning to vote for the eventual Democratic nominee. And in Florida, a key battleground state that Trump likely must win to remain in power, the numbers favored the president, with 36% of Floridians surveyed supporting Trump and 31% supporting the Democratic nominee.
(Excerpt) Read more at google.com ...
Note: This was February, before Sleepy Joe was the candidate ...
@NateSilver538
· 21h
A bit less contrived: some "unlikely voters" actually do turn out to vote. So if you screen out a bunch of Republican unlikely voters, but you don't screen out as many of the Dem unlikely voters because they've already voted, you could underestimate the GOP vote share.
Does nate still give Trump ridiculously low odds of Trump winning?
Cause last I check he had it at 15 percent.
He’s a ####. Always has been always will be.
He writes a few sensible articles but he’s so biased it’s insane.
Got to keep that narrative going.
Can’t cheat if they report the truth that Trump is ahead across the board.
I bet this little poofty is having a coronary now!
Records have shown that there are a lot of people attending Trump rallies that are not even republicans, and many that haven’t voted in years. That’s going to mean a lot of votes for Trump.
When Barbra Streisand and Whoopi Goldberg and Rosie ODonnell said they would leave the USA if Donald Trump won the Presidency it really motivated people to vote for Trump. A lot of people that I know said that was the motivation that they needed to vote for Trump.
The mass media always pedal the “this will be the highest turnout ever” garbage.
They are always lying—the highest turnout was in the 1960 election!
The hidden big story will be the low Democratic turnout—caused partly by a miserable senile presidential nominee and partly by panic about the coronavirus.
You heard it here first.
I spoke with a 65 year old acquaintance earlier today who told me that she’d never voted before in her life. However, she recently registered and yesterday personally delivered her ballot to the Commissioner of Elections. She voted for Trump.
Voters are motivated by two things:
1. party loyalty
2. personal connection to a candidate, whether having voted before or not
Year to year, regular voter numbers don’t much change. In ‘08, however, Obama increased the yute and black vote and won.
In ‘16, Clinton garnered only the usuals, while Trump drew out prior non-voters who were attracted to his message, and he attracted enough of those to outvote the small fraction of Republican loyalists who abandoned him. (He would have lost had he depended on traditional Republican voters.)
Same in ‘20: Biden has no personal connection or draw. He’s getting the same old, so if Trump by any measure increases the 2nd category, he wins.
He will.
I assume you don't mean the exciting dynamism and future oriented heroic leadership of the charismatic Biden will motivate them to vote./S
I think he will put more voters to sleep than Mondale, Dukakis and McGovern combined. Sominex and ZQuill combined.
Nice.
Nice.
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