Posted on 10/22/2020 7:36:05 AM PDT by SeekAndFind
Polls and pundits were wrong across the board prior to the 2016 presidential election.
Indeed, the anti-Trump spin was so universal with pollsters and journalists in the last presidential election, that even three and a half years later, it’s hard to believe that there wasn’t a conspiracy to cook the books to discourage Trump voters.
With another election pending, pollsters seem to be having hot flashes of déjà vu. Donald Trump is again universally cast as the dark horse. But this year there is some clear evidence to explain why polls and media alike may be misreading or misrepresenting the numbers.
1. Flyover Phantoms
Pollsters agree on one thing: rural voters are notoriously hard to reach for surveys. Explanations are self-evident. Blue collar America, the “deplorables,” are still working. Urban Americans, government employees, and the public schools are on paid leave for the COVID epidemic. One in four Americans, liberal to a fault, works for government or academia at all levels.
The usual urban suspects may be overrepresented in polls. Biden voters, largely an urban demographic, are thus still at home; answering the phone and available to skew the curve.
2. Campus Apathy
If the COVID-19 urban/state shutdowns are a conspiracy to smear Trump, it might backfire on campus. Teens and twenty-somethings, even in a good year, are a liberal yet apathetic voting demographic. With school in indefinite recess, the campus will not be much of a player this year for rallying the Biden/Harris snowflake vote.
3. The Black Revolt
African Americans since the mid-20th century have been a reliable demographic for Democrats; ironically the party of slavery. Something changed in 2020.
Blacks are registering as independents this year in unprecedented numbers, not good news for liberals and Democrats. Biden’s patronizing attitude towards blacks didn’t help either
(Excerpt) Read more at americanthinker.com ...
.@FoxNews Polls are totally FAKE, just like they were in 2016. I am leading in all of the states mentioned, which you will soon see. I thought Fox was getting rid of its pollster. Sadly, it never happened!— Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) October 22, 2020
Biden’s patronizing attitude towards blacks didn’t help either”
come on man!
I will soon be giving a first in television history full, unedited preview of the vicious attempted “takeout” interview of me by Lesley Stahl of @60Minutes. Watch her constant interruptions & anger. Compare my full, flowing and “magnificently brilliant” answers to their “Q’s”. https://t.co/L3szccGamP— Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) October 22, 2020
“misreading the numbers”
LOLLOLLOLLOLLOL
How about making up numbers?
Clap for that, you stupid bastards!
polls no longer reflect public opinion. their purpose is to form public opinion
Yeah, that'll happen when you purposely oversample Demonics in order to adversely affect voter turnout.
I was starting to get a little worried last week. I’m not a “pearl-clutcher”, but I keep a strand nearby... just in case. ;-)
I kept looking at all these polls in Michigan and Wisconsin and Pennsylvania that show Biden up 6-8%. Could they REALLY be THAT wrong? So, I went back and looked at similar polls taken during this same week back in 2016. And “Sonofabitch” (to quote Sleepy Joe)…. they showed Hillary with an even BIGGER lead. Yes, they REALLY WERE... THAT wrong.
Like now, most of them showed Trump starting to improve.
I have felt, for months now, that Trump is in a STRONGER position now than he was in 2016. That’s my sense anyway from talking to people and just looking around.
It is hard to feel confident though... since the margin last time was extremely close, especially in key states like Michigan. And, with all this COVID crap, and early voting, and mail-in voting, and ballot harvesting. I’m still as nervous as Lindsay Graham at an ANTIFA rally.
I think Trump can close the deal with a rational demeanor, backed by facts in the debate tonight. He can be aggressive, just not the ‘scatter-shot’ guy we saw last time.
That should be interesting. One of the most formative things I ever saw was, a video shown during my college years. First, we watched the broadcast segment 60 Minutes aired about the nuclear industry, including an extended interview with a power company executive. It was devastating. The industry looked dangerous and the executive completely corrupt.
Then, we watched the full, unedited tape of the interview with the executive. That, changed my life. It was incredible how clever video editing can so completely change the message. I mean, 180 degrees. I didn't watch 60 Minutes again for 20 years.
Even today, I watch... occasionally, but I take NOTHING they show at face value.
Yes, they REALLY WERE... THAT wrong.
**********
LOL..... Well it may be that some of the sample decided to play
games with the pollsters. If enough do that then the polling data
isn’t worth the sheet it is written on.
I like what Scott Adams said yesterday: Trump has a good strategy in personally campaigning so hard. If he wins, it worked. If he loses, at least he left it all on the field.
Unlike Biden who is just sitting around.
What Scott Adams just tweeted also seems very appropriate for this thread:
Scott Adams
@ScottAdamsSays
“All the people who thought the fake news was real are going to have a tough time when they find out that most of the polls are fake too. The TDS will be off the charts.”
The COVID panic/sham has pretty clearly demonstrated that crowds possess neither wisdom or intelligence.
“But this year there is some clear evidence to explain why polls and media alike may be misreading or misrepresenting the numbers.”
I’ll take “misrepresenting” for $200, Alex.
Black voters are the most shy of the shy Trump voters because they are subject to the most vile threats for daring to leave the plantation. I would not be surprised if Trump exceeded the 35% that openly approve of him.
They’re not “misreading” the numbers; they’re creating them!
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