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Florida Early Vote update, 10/22/2020
ElectionCZAR ^ | 10/22/2020 | self

Posted on 10/22/2020 6:25:21 AM PDT by SpeedyInTexas

Florida Update:

VBM Ballots - DEMs lead by 553,687

In-Person Early Voting - REPs lead by 90,913

Combined Early voting - DEMs lead by 462,774


TOPICS: News/Current Events
KEYWORDS: earlyvoting; elections; florida; polls
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To: Ravi; LS; byecomey; bort; Coop

49.8% of all Ds have requested VBM ballot. 35.6% of Rs.

The requests keeps rising. But only 2 more days to request VBM ballot.

The number that shall not be spoken of went up a bit.


121 posted on 10/22/2020 3:52:06 PM PDT by SpeedyInTexas (Localization, not Globalization)
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To: SpeedyInTexas

I love your sense of humor.


122 posted on 10/22/2020 4:01:13 PM PDT by byecomey
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To: SpeedyInTexas; LS; bort; Coop; Ravi

Pushed in a new feature to the JoeIsDone map. I found myself looking at the advantage numbers, so I decided to make them easy to view. But it’s probably best to not to publicize it because the blue will confuse people.

https://joeisdone.github.io/florida/

Scroll down and find the “Advantage Map” button. Push it and the counties will be colored relative to their 2016 EV turnouts. Basically if they’re red it means that Trump is doing better in EV there than he was in 2016.

We might see a red Miami-Dade tomorrow, who knows.


123 posted on 10/22/2020 4:04:27 PM PDT by byecomey
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To: SpeedyInTexas

Ssshhhh!


124 posted on 10/22/2020 4:08:19 PM PDT by Coop (After 14 years, it's time for a new tagline)
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To: byecomey

Well done, my friend. But too much blue for my taste! We need a few more 50K+ GOP advantage IPEV days to turn that around.


125 posted on 10/22/2020 4:09:30 PM PDT by Coop (After 14 years, it's time for a new tagline)
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To: byecomey

Much appreciated. Very helpful to compare


126 posted on 10/22/2020 4:09:53 PM PDT by Ravi
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To: byecomey

I like it. All of South Florida is light blue or almost White for Miami.


127 posted on 10/22/2020 4:17:32 PM PDT by SpeedyInTexas (Localization, not Globalization)
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To: SpeedyInTexas

Voted in Duval County today for our great president and straight red. My 15 year old daughter went with me — she wanted to watch the process. We proudly wore red. I voted in the Southside/Deerwood area of Jax. Hard to tell who was voting for who, of course, but we noticed quite a few AAs.

A few days ago we were at Target. I was wearing a hot pink mask that almost looks red with the word “Freedom” on it. At first glance you might think it was a Trump mask. A black lady checked us out. She looked at me and said “we better be careful who we vote for or we’ll lose our freedoms.” I said “I agree.” She asked who I was voting for and I said “I’m a Trump girl.” She said “say it again!” Come to find out she is a huge Trump supporter. Said she loves his dance, he’s awesome, cute, great, etc. She said Biden and the dems would turn the country socialist. She went on and on about how much she loves Trump. I sure hope she’s an inspiration to others.


128 posted on 10/22/2020 4:31:02 PM PDT by Proudcongal (Trump making American great again!)
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To: Ravi; LS; Coop; bort; byecomey

“The number that shall not be spoken of went up a bit.”

Ok. Have to say this.

The number went up to the number of the devil.

I didn’t finagle the calculations. Straight up hit that number on the calculator.

Not going to re-compute in 2 days. It is an appropriate number for Ds.


129 posted on 10/22/2020 4:33:59 PM PDT by SpeedyInTexas (Localization, not Globalization)
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To: SpeedyInTexas
The number went up to the number of the devil. I didn’t finagle the calculations. Straight up hit that number on the calculator. Not going to re-compute in 2 days. It is an appropriate number for Ds.

ROTFLMBO!!

130 posted on 10/22/2020 4:37:27 PM PDT by Coop (After 14 years, it's time for a new tagline)
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To: Coop; SpeedyInTexas

Ha! Same


131 posted on 10/22/2020 4:38:37 PM PDT by Ravi
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To: Ravi
Straight up. Used todays VBM requests totals for Rs/Ds with the 80.5% turnout I think Ds need.

Turning 80.5% into a Dem Min VBM Threshold

80.5% of Dems 2,645,137 requested VMB ballots = 2.129m

79.6% of Reps 1,838,849 requested VMB ballots = 1.463m

DEMs need to lead VBM ballots returned by 666,000

[79.6% is how many Reps returned ballots in 2016 by Election Eve].


132 posted on 10/22/2020 4:43:08 PM PDT by SpeedyInTexas (Localization, not Globalization)
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To: SpeedyInTexas

Leave it there. It’s a sign.


133 posted on 10/22/2020 4:43:12 PM PDT by byecomey
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To: SpeedyInTexas

666k. Screw the Ds.


134 posted on 10/22/2020 4:44:17 PM PDT by SpeedyInTexas (Localization, not Globalization)
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To: Ravi; LS; bort; byecomey; Coop

Previewing tomorrows numbers (pending Miami/Sarasota)

Percentage gap has gone from 15.9% to 9.1% over 4 days.

The trend is your friend but not quite Bayonet time yet.

10/22/20: REPs - 1,653,691, DEMs - 2,081,986, lead of 428,295 for DEMs, 44.35% to 35.23%

10/22/20: REPs - 1,463,281, DEMs - 1,926,055, lead of 462,774 for DEMs, 45.2% to 34.4%

10/21/20: REPs - 1,221,835, DEMs - 1,708,632, lead of 486,797 for DEMs, 46.5% to 33.2%

10/20/20: REPs - 953,524, DEMs - 1,432,216, lead of 478,692 for DEMs, 47.7% to 31.8%


135 posted on 10/22/2020 5:10:36 PM PDT by SpeedyInTexas (Localization, not Globalization)
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To: SpeedyInTexas

10/22/20 ==> 10/23/20


136 posted on 10/22/2020 5:17:04 PM PDT by SpeedyInTexas (Localization, not Globalization)
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To: SpeedyInTexas

The R-D gap this morning was 10.75%. Over the course of a day, it went all the way down to 7.66%.

For reference, the gap going into Election Day was 1.46%.

In theory, three strong days like today’s will put us there and then it’s gravy from there. But we shall see.


137 posted on 10/22/2020 5:20:42 PM PDT by byecomey
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To: SpeedyInTexas

621,370 Rs have voted IPEV. (+137k).

979,838 Rs have voted VBM.

Won’t be long and more Rs will have voted IPEV than VBM.

Ds won’t surpass VBM for a long time.


138 posted on 10/22/2020 5:21:15 PM PDT by SpeedyInTexas (Localization, not Globalization)
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To: SpeedyInTexas

So subtract 137,000 from the 428,000 or the 428,000 is with the IPEV (sounds likely)

They are now 790,000 from that magic number.


139 posted on 10/22/2020 6:11:31 PM PDT by LS ("Castles made of sand, fall in the sea . . . eventually" (Hendrix))
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To: Ravi; LS; Coop; byecomey; bort

Daniel Smith, aka BS Smith.

https://www.miamiherald.com/news/politics-government/article246429000.html

I get so tired of all the race BS.

If you want to persuade some portion of voters to not vote, and your opponent’s coalition contains many minorities, they are targeted because they are Hillary voters, not because they are minorities.


140 posted on 10/22/2020 6:50:13 PM PDT by SpeedyInTexas (Localization, not Globalization)
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