[SpeedyInTexas]

Magic Number for Dems to hit in VBM: 653,000 lead

Magic Number for Reps to hit in IPEV: 359,000 (55% of DEM VBM lead)

Combined VBM+IPEV Magic Number for Reps to hit in IPEV: Dem lead of 294k

[SpeedyInTexas]

byecomey’s Florida map:

https://joeisdone.github.io/florida/

[icclearly]

I hope someone understands this gobblygook, ‘cause to me, it does not look like good news for Trump in FL.

[dangus]

At this rate, in 10 days, the Republicans catch up.

[ncalburt]

All this is meaningless .

no one knows the huge independents votes.

[Ravi]

Good stuff Speedy.

Prediction:
82% overall turnout of R voters (4.24 million)
79% overall turnout of D voters (4.19 million)

Let's see how accurate I am.

Good day in NC (all forms of advance voting):
DEMs turnout went from 45.0% to 43.7%
REPs turnout went from 26.3% to 27.5%
UNA turnout went from 28.4% to 28.5%
2.16 million ballots cast so far. That is an impressive 45.5% of 2016 turnout (incredible).

Florida needs to catch up to this turnout.


NC voter registration changes 10/20 to 10/21:
REPs +1,416.
DEMs +1,239.
UNA +792.

[wfu_deacons]

Can anyone provide some thoughts of the race in NC?

Election Day minus 19 days: The Dems led on early voting (VBM + in-person) 49% to 22% for Reps.

Today, Election Day minus 14 days: The Dems lead on early voting 44% to 27% for Reps. So the Reps have cut 5% of the lead in 5 days.

For 2016, the final numbers were 38% Dem and 33% Rep. Since so many people are voting early this year, it would seem we need to get to those numbers (or very close to them) by election day.

I do have some anxiety with the independent vote. Per 2016 exit polling, Trump won 53% of independents in 2016. Recent polling in 2020 has him with about 46%. I think he would be wise to talk about the economy and getting kids back to school (a big issue with parents of young children) to bolster this demographic.

[LeonardFMason]

Am I the only person who finds this report depressing?

It “LOOKS” like Trump is going to lose Florida based on these numbers and some of the comments.

Can someone, ANYONE, try to put this in perspective compared to 2016 and 2018(Governor and Senate Races)?

Florida went Trump in 2016. Has had a Republican Governor for years. Has 2 Republican Senators. In 2018, not a great year for Republicans nationwide, Republicans WON. What has changed?

[JonPreston]

Bkm

[Cathi]

You seem a little disappointed with the early numbers. Any idea whether the 15 counties that have not yet started early voting have had an impact on these D v. R comparisons. Are they more R?

“the first day of in-person early voting, which includes 52 of Florida’s 67 counties. All counties begin early voting on Saturday.”

[ExSES]

Keep in mind, if you live in a heavy DIM County currently, you have to register DIM in order to vote in the DIM primary (where the only real choice of officeholders is possible)!

[mainerforglobalwarming]

Any idea how many of the early voters are typical election day voters? New voter registration?

[Fledermaus]

Why would they know who they support?

I voted early in TN yesterday. They don’t ask party affiliation.

[Political Junkie Too]

I was looking for some other insights, so I decided to look at this from a "where the votes are" perspective. Maybe you've already got this backed into your numbers.

The Top 10 Democrat counties make up 64% of the total Democrat registered voters. Of those 10 counties, 20% of registered Democrats already voted (1,074,291). Essentially, one-third of the Democrats in the Top 10 counties have already voted (20/64).

Those same counties represent only 50% of registered Republican votes. 11.9% of registered Republicans voted in those counties (613,696), making it about 20% of the Republican voters in the Top 10 counties.

So, in the Top 10 Democrat counties, there are about 80% outstanding Republican votes (1,955,718) to 67% remaining Democrat votes (2,329,089).

-PJ

[cookcounty]

We had VBM in Colorado in 2016, 20% of the registered voters, did not vote at all. Keep that in mind.

[cookcounty]

In Colorado, 2016 (was already VBM) almost 700,000 voters never voted at all.

If you assume same level of interest, and consider Florida’s much larger population, Approximately 2 million Florida voters will not vote at all.I predict a very fast drop off in early votes coming in.