Posted on 10/21/2020 5:51:22 AM PDT by SpeedyInTexas
Florida Update:
VBM Ballots - DEMs lead by 527,836
In-Person Early Voting - REPs lead by 41,039
Combined Early voting - DEMs lead by 486,797
Combined (VBM+IPEV):
10/21/20: REPs - 1,221,835, DEMs - 1,708,632, lead of 486,797 for DEMs, 46.5% to 33.2%
10/20/20: REPs - 953,524, DEMs - 1,432,216, lead of 478,692 for DEMs, 47.7% to 31.8%
Magic Number for Reps to hit in IPEV: 359,000 (55% of DEM VBM lead)
Combined VBM+IPEV Magic Number for Reps to hit in IPEV: Dem lead of 294k
Here are the RETURNED Florida VBM numbers for 2020 (these are returned ballots but not yet counted).
50.4% of VBM ballots have been returned at this point.
49.3% of REP ballots have been returned and 54.3% of DEM ballots have been returned.
That data indicates there are a lot of VBM ballots out for the GOP
54.3% of D VBM ballots returned.
They’ve been adding around 3% per day.
Another 10 days of that and they’d hit 84%.
An 84% D turnout would be huge.
Its hard to believe they can keep up the pace but we shall see.
Looks like the Cuban-Americans are turning out for Trump in Dade County as Trump has advantage over 2016.
Vote-by-Mail Provided (Not Yet Returned):
Rs: 926,699
Ds: 1,203,033
Ds still have many more VBM ballots outstanding. They will run up their lead in that category more.
I hope someone understands this gobblygook, ‘cause to me, it does not look like good news for Trump in FL.
I have high hopes for Miami-Dade.
Rubio lost Miami by 100k in 2016 Senate race.
Trump lost Miami by 300k in 2016.
Alot of votes for Trump to pick up there this year.
The irony of this: If Trump wins re-election, the “White supremacist” will be helped significantly by the “minority vote”.
At this rate, in 10 days, the Republicans catch up.
Ds are performing well in Florida so far.
Rs need a large turnout to win.
You’re assuming those D ballots are all voting Biden. Many aren’t, much more than GOP defectors.
“In-Person Early Voting - REPs lead by 41,039”
With 2 days of IPEV, Rs lead by 41k. 14 days of IPEV total.
So 41 * 7 = 287k. Maybe add another 50-100k because some R counties haven’t started voting IP yet. That puts Rs around 350k.
Ds will lead VBM by 600-700k.
Ds will lead overall by election day 250-350k.
Rs need a huge turnout on election day for the win.
Republican vote-by-mail return rate fell five percent behind almost immediately, and has been holding steady since then; Seems a reasonably presumption the return rate will ultimately be very similar.
Dems led yesterday in early voting; Republicans now lead? That’s awesome. The BIG factor is that Democrats REPORT to pollsters that they’re NOT going to show up on Election Day. Republicans should lead in same-day voting by 3-1, according to pollsters. So are Democrats procrastinating, or just letting the election slide away?
Oh, yes, Miami-Dade is the big outlier this cycle.
I have a theory that to switch from Party X to Party Y, you go through this process:
Party X voter -> (demotivated voter) -> Party Y voter
In other words, you can deduce the amount of crossover D votes in Florida by measuring a lower enthusiasm (because a bunch of these will be demotivated).
Miami Dade and to a lesser extent Broward seem to be suffering that dip, which means there’s probably a good number of crossover votes in these big D numbers.
Many of these people who requested ballots will not end up voting by mail and instead opt for Early Voting because of fear their ballot will get lost in the mail especially now we are within 2 weeks of the election.
I think early voting will cannibalize a lot of these vote by mail ballot requests. Even Democrats are getting concerned with the post office.
The most relevant number is the combined vote number who turn in ballots and early vote.
“50.4% of VBM ballots have been returned at this point.
49.3% of REP ballots have been returned and 54.3% of DEM ballots have been returned.”
That is good news. Nate Silver has said that for the Dems to overcome the election day GOP turnout, the VBM numbers prior to election day must favor the dems by a 70/30 split. If 50% of the VBM ballots have been returned, it is practically impossible for them to hit the 70/30 split with 25% of the overall VBM already in the GOP column. They’d need to run the remaining ballots to be mailed in at a 95/5 split.
Maybe ‘mini-Mike’ Bloomberg’s money is being put to good use in FL after all.
I hope you are right.
All this is meaningless .
no one knows the huge independents votes.
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