Posted on 10/19/2020 12:05:33 PM PDT by John W
By almost every measure that political operatives, academics and handicappers use to forecast elections, the likely outcome is that Joe Biden will win the White House.
Yet two weeks before Election Day, the unfolding reality of 2020 is that its harder than ever to be sure. And Democrats are scrambling to account for the hidden variables that could still sink their nominee or what you might call the known unknowns.
Republican registration has ticked up in key states at the same time Democratic field operations were in hibernation. Democratic turnout is surging in the early vote. But its unclear whether it will be enough to overcome an expected rush of ballots that Republicans, leerier of mail voting, will cast in person on Nov. 3.
There is uncertainty about the accuracy of polling in certain swing states, the efficacy of GOP voter suppression efforts and even the number of mail-in ballots that for one reason or another will be disqualified.
There are more known unknowns than weve ever had at any point, said Tom Bonier, CEO of the Democratic data firm TargetSmart. The instruments we have to gauge this race, the polling, our predictive models
the problem is all those tools are built around quote-unquote normal elections. And this is anything but a normal election.
(Excerpt) Read more at currently.att.yahoo.com ...
The only ones to be surprised are the ones not paying attention.
Polling has been weaponized by the democrats and the rest of liberal left as a tool to sway voters and elections, conservatives know it and personally I have refused to give info to pollsters. Who knows how your answers to their questions would be twisted.
No pole can be trusted IMO, whether it shows the POTUS ahead or behind.
Just my 2 cent.
What I just realized is that is it possible that we already know the winner of the election, i.e. Trump?
Will we look back at this year and say that the evidence was already in front of us 2 weeks early thru the early voting results and that we should have known from the numbers we already have that Trump had won?
Or that election night isn't really going to change anything all that much due to the huge increase in mail-in voting in the crucial states?
I have a feeling I'm right.
We waited this morning to vote for over 2.5 hours, the line was huge. I am pretty sure most of the people were highly dedicated to whoever they were voting for, they had to be highly motivated or wouldnt have waited. You can bet that almost everyone who attends Trump rallies, parades etc are going to vote for him and will crawl to do so. if you put these together, it is a Trump win. Biden doesnt have the crowds, which means these people waiting in line to vote are not there for him.
>By almost every measure that political operatives, academics and handicappers use to forecast elections, the likely outcome is that Joe Biden will win the White House.
The same horsesh!t media that decried that Reagan would sweep America in 1980.
They won’t let you know the real info.
They claimed on election night that NO ONE saw this coming.
“excuses excuses”
Delusional Biden waves to an empty field........duping the MSM into a photo-op.
The Politico is a left wing rag and they are delusional.
The only ones who will be ‘surprised’ is them.......................
Surprise victory?
Perhaps to the lefties. Not to those who know better.
The efficacy of GOP voter suppression efforts
Oh, FFS. Piss off, Pollutico.
Democratic turnout will tumble on election day because so many were scared into voting early.
They are a left wing rag but the saddest thing is they’re not even close to the worst.
We should have a vote one day on who we think that is.
huff/wa post/cnn/msnbc/ny times/vice/buzzfeed/la times/chic trubune/mother jones :)
I go with CNN
Biden was waving to his other plane.
Man of the people dontchaknow.
Fixed.
There are known knowns; there are things we know we know.
We also know there are known unknowns; that is to say we know there are some things we do not know.
But there are also unknown unknowns there are things we do not know we dont know.
That’s like trying to determine which turd is the smelliest..................
lol
Yes, but you’ll hear all kinds of stories of how the Dems voters are overwhelming, however, they’ll be very few left to vote on election day. It’s about the narrative, not the numbers.
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