Posted on 10/18/2020 2:10:36 PM PDT by 11th_VA
This is my follow-up article about the presidential election polls and predictions about the election results. You can read the first article here.
The best tool we have to determine the outcome of elections is polls. Each poll has its own bias and we can get rid of some of the bias in individual polls by combining the results of each individual poll in one giant poll. Fivethirtyeight is a website that does this for us. Its method isn't fool proof though. We can get rid of some of the bias, but not all of it.
Right before the 2016 presidential election, on November 7th, Fivethirtyeight estimated that Hillary Clinton had a 67% chance of winning the election. Yet, Donald Trump crushed Hillary. There are several reasons why this happened. I am not going to waste your time to discuss these. The most important factor was that voters didn't reveal their true intentions when asked by pollsters. As a result, polls failed to predict the outcome of the 2016 elections. Take a look at this screenshot of Fivethirtyeight's website from November 7, 2016 (the day before the 2016 election): ...
(Excerpt) Read more at yahoo.com ...
Refresh your memories:
https://www.msnbc.com/the-last-word/watch/scientist-predicts-99-chance-of-clinton-win-801634371744
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