Arizona Poll: Donald Trump 45%, Joe Biden 43%

/nonperele.com ^ | Oct 16, 2020

[11th_VA]

President Donald Trump holds a slim lead over Democrat presidential candidate Joe Biden in battleground Arizona among likely voters, a Targoz Market Research/PollSmart survey released Thursday found.

The survey, fielded September 23 to October 2 among 1,045 likely voters, showed Trump narrowly leading Biden in the Grand Canyon State by two percentage points — 45 percent to the former vice president’s 43 percent, among likely voters, specifically. The gap narrows one percentage point for “likely with leaners,” with Trump garnering 46 percent to Biden’s 45 percent. Trump also holds a one-point advantage in a low turnout scenario.

“While many other polls show a substantial Biden lead in the presidential race, we see an outcome similar to 2016 when Trump won the state by 4 points,” the survey reported, expressing the belief that “many” polls are “too narrowly defining who will be voting this year”...

While the majority said they registered to vote prior to 2016, 19 percent said they did so between 2016 and 2019, and 20 percent said they did this year.

The poll also examined the highly-anticipated Arizona Senate race, showing Democrat Mark Kelly leading incumbent Sen. Marth McSally (R-AZ) 49 percent to 40 percent among likely voters. His lead expands to ten points when “likely with leaners” is considered.

Arizona voters remain split on how the Senate should handle the Supreme Court vacancy, with 43 percent saying, at the time, that the Senate should “hold hearings and vote on whomever President Trump nominates. Another 43 percent expressed the belief that the Senate should “not hold hearings until the next President selects a nominee.”

The survey’s margin of error is +/- 3.3 percent.

[lasereye]

It sounds like some worthless GOPe consultant is running her campaign. He may be deliberately sabotaging her campaign, or he may think that’s a smart type of campaign to run. I imagine McConnell recommended the idiot.

[frank ballenger]

AZ is being communized by illegals and locust voters from California.

Sounds like pests are a real problem there.

[DataJunkie]

Just came back to FL from a week visiting AZ, was pleasantly surprised at all the Trump support out there, it was amazing. We got more positive comments on our Trump masks, wore them only when it was mandatory, and they were from young people, very encouraging. Though, if you listened to the TV out there, oh my word the commercials were sickening anti Trump BS every 10 minutes, sad.

[Mr. Jeeves]

What’s with all these people voting for Trump and Kelly? Ticket splitting may have made sense decades ago, but what are people thinking in this day and age?

I think a lot of Republican voters are just not voting for either Senate candidate, but all of the Democrat voters are voting for Kelly.

[libh8er]

She actually brags about being a sexual assualt survivor

People who are impressed with that kind of thing are all voting Biden.

[libh8er]

Trump needs to make clear in his rallies that if you are voting for him but a non Republican for Senate, you may as well not vote for him.

[Dilbert San Diego]

I know what you mean about Arizona and the home of Barry Goldwater.

California, home of Ronald Reagan, would never elect a Reagan conservative today.

Other once reliably Republican states, such as Virginia, have crossed over as well.

Orange County, once a major Republican stronghold in California, has become increasingly Democrat. Every single congressional district which includes Orange County is now occupied in Washington by a Democrat.

[Zhang Fei]

[McSally is a lousy candidate, who is unwilling to expose Mark Kelly’s record and real persona, allowing him to be the regular American guy type.

Her ads complaining that he worked for a company that was ACCUSED of harassing women is like findernails on the chalkboard to me. This is her second go around, and she has NEVER won a statewide election. But she’s who we got. ]

---

I understand McSally going easy on him so as not to look mean or catty. What excuse do the PAC’s supporting her re-election have? Do they even exist?

[usafa92]

Rich Baris of Big Data poll has Trump up 6. Biden has no shot in AZ.

https://twitter.com/peoples_pundit/status/1317278668738207745?s=21

[Dr. Sivana]

I understand McSally going easy on him so as not to look mean or catty. What excuse do the PAC’s supporting her re-election have? Do they even exist?

Yes. My daughter canvasses for the Susan B. Anthony PAC, and they promote Trump McSally in tandem. My daughter tells me that she sometimes runs into people who don't like Trump, aren't voting for him, but like McSally. I fear McSally thinks there are potentially more of those type than there are.

[Mom MD]

Hopefully he can pull the senate seat with him

[cgbg]

This poll is a total joke.

Let me show why this is so.

Total voter registration in Arizona=

3.58M in 2016 and 3.72M in 2020.

That is a net increase of 4%.

Lets say 1% of the old registered voters died in those four years, so the actual increase was 5%.

Therefore a proper sample would have 5% of new registered voters from 2016.

What percent of people claiming to be new registered voters are in this survey.?

Wait for it....

While the majority said they registered to vote prior to 2016, 19 percent said they did so between 2016 and 2019, and 20 percent said they did this year.

39% said they were newly registered since 2016!

A fair sample would only have polled 5% of new registered voters!

My guess--most of the "new" registered voters are lying and are not registered at all!

Conclusion: the poll is garbage, and your average high school student should be able to prove that in class.

As manager Yogi Berra used to say about the hapless expansion baseball team Mets--"Isn't there anyone out here who knows how to play this game?"

[Cathi]

Thank you very much!

[MinorityRepublican]

Why isn’t this posted on RCP?

[yoe]

The Biden Crime Family are getting away with their corrupt dealings...the FBI will not indite if there is no crime, they will just be quite and demand Barr do the same. The only power left is in We The People.

VOTE NO FOR CORRUPT JOE!

[CurlyDave]

Trump needs to make clear in his rallies that if you are voting for him but a non Republican for Senate, you may as well not vote for him.

I call BS!

If Trump wins and we happen to lose the Senate he will still veto any court packing schemes.

4 years of solid SC decisions on guns, voting rights, and slapping down critical race theory training will save the Republic. We might even get FB and Twitter brought to heel.

[faithhopecharity]

Question?
How could someone show less interest in winning the White House?
1. almost no public appearances
2. hiding in his basement 90 percent of the time
3. stops ALL campaign work for a siesta the rest of the day by variously, 9, 10 or 11am
4. tells people he wants to raise our taxes
5. won’t disavow the statements of several D’s near him that the D party will pack the Supreme Court
6. issues illogical statements like blaming PDJT for the Chinese virus
7. barely disaffirms the Burn Loot and Murder street gang attacks, and generally only if pressed
8. selects an ineligible Veep candidate
9. selects a Veep candidate that can’t help win a state for him (since Californication is going to be tallied as DNC no matter what)
10 selects a Veep candidate who turns most voters OFF
11.selects a Veep candidate with far far leftist politics when what he needed was a Veep who could add some “moderation” to his ticket
12.selects a Veep candidate with tons of (shall we say, hummmm) dirty linens
13.has a son who trades in his daddy’s political position, office, power for his own private profit
14. covers up or won’t clean up No. 13 above
15. has mass public rallies consisting of only 5 spectators (who appeared to be his secret service detail anyway), only a couple dozen attendees, or absolutely Nobody at all at his big public rally in Arizona. Nobody, zilch.
16. appears to be suffering from dementia (so sorry about this one, all to best to Mr. Biden in dealing with, living with it!)
17. has dozens of photo sessions where he appears to be caressing or inappropriately fondling women and young girls. Not quite sure what to make of this, it might be more innocent than it seems but it sure doesn’t make for good campaign optics
18. allows IslamoNazi type staff in his campaign
19. has never disaffirmed his affiliation with Obama & Co. or put any distance between himself and O.
20. has some strange-sounding and potentially dangerous connections with Ukraine, Russia, Communist China, Saudi Arabia, and?
21. not sure he knows where, what state he’s in?
22. more?

I don’t think he wants the job at all anymore.
(I also happen to think he wouldn’t last very long in it, since the pretty-obvious plan is to use him as a stepping stone to a Harris/Pelosi administration.)
Thoughts?

17.

[TECTopcat]

now we need to get McSally over the line to hold Senate

I just donated $25
https://secure.winred.com/martha-mcsally/arizona-red-search/?utm_campaign=ads_mcsally-38481_google_t38481-1131&utm_medium=text&utm_source=google&utm_content=mcsally-38481&gclid=CjwKCAjwrKr8BRB_EiwA7eFaprAVXGd0orwBULvE0gUGbAgmbXJiWIfr3aoNn1qgnPpYjDK605LpHxoCP5kQAvD_BwE

[SisterK]

Finally getting you tube commercials about Mark Kelly’s gun grabbing. We are a very 2nd Amendment friendly state.

[lodi90]

The NRA is basically the only GOP PAC running a lot ads in my area Florida. There is maybe one or two others but nothing like the fire power the Dems have for Hiden. It seems the GOP big donor class is taking a powder this year with Trump on the ballot.