I like Larry, but he has been overly-optimistic in the past, when things didn’t turn out well for conservatives.
If you're going to discount someone's article like that it would be helpful if you gave an example or two of when he was overly optimistic enough to raise doubt about his current assertions.
his analysis left something to be desired in the 2018 mid-terms.
When have you ever seen so much egregious bullshit from the other side?
When have you ever seen Republicans show up in numbers so huge that even though they are unable to enter a rally, they stay?
When have you ever seen Republicans ever hold their own rallies, spending hundreds and thousands of dollars in flags, yard signs, etc. Week after Week after Week and all of it organic?
You never have...
He was dead on with the 2016 presidential election.
True. 2018. However, in his defense, his analysis is more tuned to presidential-election years. It seemed to falter last time, during the off-year election.
I think this coming election is the biggest test of his methodology, which is to analyse registrations and trends, and to note the absence or presence of minority/student support.
I'm inclined to, with hope, lean into believing his analysis.
I don’t think it is optimism - I think it is absence of pessimism.
The polls are always extremely and deliberately pessimistic regarding Republican prospects. Larry looks at registrations and other indicators and discounts the pessimistic polls - as he should.
Of course, that doesn’t always work, because the polls can get it right by chance, just as a broken clock is right twice a day.
But that does NOT mean Larry is wrong to remove their pessimism from his forecasts.
JMHO