Biden Nearly 5 Times More Likely than Trump to Win Election, Forecast Models Average Shows

Newsweek ^ | 09/17/2020 | Jeffery Martin

[SeekAndFind]

Democratic presidential candidate Joe Biden is the odds-on favorite to win the U.S. election against President Donald Trump, according to an average of 7 different forecast models released on Thursday.

Presidential elections in the U.S. are not decided by who gets the most votes. In order to actually win the contest, a candidate must receive a majority of votes in the Electoral College. There are a total of 538 individuals from each state who decide which candidate becomes president. Candidates need at least 270 Electoral College votes to clinch the presidency.

While those electors often follow the popular vote, that has not always been the case. In the 2016 presidential election, Hillary Clinton won the popular vote against Trump, gaining 48.2 percent of the vote to Trump's 46.1 percent. However, Trump picked up 306 Electoral College votes to Clinton's 232 votes, making Trump the president.

In each of Thursday's seven election forecast models, Biden was projected to win both the popular vote and the Electoral College. As averaged together by the website Election Dice, those models predicted that Trump has a 17.9 percent chance of winning while Biden has an 81.8 percent chance of winning. Biden's odds of victory are projected to be nearly five times greater than that of President Trump's.

Data from The Economist showed Biden holding an 8-point lead over Trump, 54 percent to 46 percent respectively. Biden was projected to get 335 votes in the Electoral College, more than the 270 votes needed to become president. Trump was projected to receive 203 electoral votes.

Polling site FiveThirtyEight placed Biden ahead of Trump in the popular vote. Biden held 52.7 percentage points to President Trump's 46 percent. Based on those numbers, Biden was projected to receive 328 votes in the Electoral College

[EBH]

Sorry, but I thought anyone voting for Hillary the last time was luney.

Now, Biden? I cannot even accept him as a serious candidate...let alone the democrats! I’d be furious with my party, not supportive!

[snarkytart]

[M1903A1]

You were expecting something different in suburban Boston?

[mikey_hates_everything]

Where I am, Trump signs don’t last long and are few but they have gone up. Going down to Charlottesville (not IN C-vile, the cesspool) or up towards Winchester, I’ve seen more Trump signs (and BIG ones!) and car stickers than any Biden or BLM I’ve seen around here in FFX Co. I hope it’s not just bias and means something in November!

[nwrep]

Except that polling site FiveThirtyEight admits Trump is winning 270-268 in electoral votes. Ha-HA!

Not really. Here is the projection from FiveThirtyEight's Nate Silver as of today:

[null and void]

Cables, Cankles same diff...

[italianquaker]

They didn’t, most polls here in Florida had Desantis losing by up to 9 points and Scott losing his senate campaign
How did that work out for them lol

[Henchster]

Wow! Silver has changed that in the last week, and gifted Hiden WI, MI, FL, PA, AZ, NC and other EVs since then.

[Bubba_Leroy]

In other breaking news, Hillary Clinton has a 91% chance of beating Trump in 2016!

[Bubba_Leroy]

Clinton's White House chances at least 95 percent!

[Lagmeister]

Rasmussen posts them on Twitter.

[kenmcg]

Trump will not only win the electoral vote, he’ll also take the popular vote.

[JustaTech]

Fake models driven by fake media polls. This is actually helpful because Trump’s base doesn’t care about polls but the Harris-Biden base does. I hope they go into Nov 3 with 100% confidence in victory. I hope these polls help give the Bush clan the balls to endorse and campaign for Biden, so that his defeat is theirs. May Romney join them in misery.

PAIN turned up to eleven. It will be weakness leaving our nation.

[melsec]

I will take that bet!

[Deplorable American1776]

The same idiots who projected President Hillary Clinton? President Hillary Clinton is doing a great job and she had a sex change, too....😀

[mywholebodyisaweapon]

bFs

[justme4now]

An ABC News poll shows Clinton leading Trump, 50% to 38%

CNN's Poll of Polls average has Clinton ahead 48% to 39%

The results showing Clinton with a growing lead largely match CNN's Poll of Polls, which averages recent national surveys.

That Poll of Polls shows Clinton ahead 48% to Trump's 39%.

New poll shows Clinton over Trump by double-digits

Take a look at the date!

OCTOBER SURPRISE

[SoFloFreeper]

Then they woke up.

[A Conservative Future]

Once again, the lying press tries to manifest its will against the will of the Leader, and the people. It will fail. I think Newsweek, in this case, is not accounting for two critical aspects of the 2020 election cycle that make things very different from 2016 (which the lying press ALSO got wrong):

• Thanks to Civil Action 81-3876, filed by US District Judge Vasquez in New Jersey, Republicans are no longer unfairly prohibited from providing ballot security at polling places and precincts around the country. We, as true patriots, are free to follow the Leader's call to arms on Election Day, and turn out in droves to express our Second Amendment rights at polling places likely to be used by BLM Marxists, illegals, and the liberal white traitors who support them. With off duty, patriotic law enforcement on our side to support us, we can remind our enemies that our Leader has declared them enemies of the state, and that their riotous days are over.
• The Republican Party acted boldly at the convention this year, abandoning the weak and messy process of attempting to assemble a party platform. Instead, the party wisely and decisively declared that the platform is the will of the Leader, and that the party's goals and the Leader's goals are one in the same. This principle - the Leader Principle - enables the Party to boldly and effectively implement the will of the Leader, dispensing with the red tape and collectivist claptrap that holds back the Democrats as they scurry to represent their foolish, squabbling constituencies. As our great Leader, Donald Trump, makes his wishes known, we as conservatives have but one mission - to see that his will is done.

  I firmly believe that these factors will overcome any chicanery on the part of the puppet Biden and his harlot. Let them try their weak and ineffective campaign to mount a "blue wave". That wave cannot wash away the will of our Leader, who stands ready to lead us past November 3rd to a continuation of his quest to make America great again.

[Gay State Conservative]

Lived here all my life...I assume you know the answer to that question! ;-)