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Biden Nearly 5 Times More Likely than Trump to Win Election, Forecast Models Average Shows
Newsweek ^ | 09/17/2020 | Jeffery Martin

Posted on 09/25/2020 11:50:30 AM PDT by SeekAndFind

Democratic presidential candidate Joe Biden is the odds-on favorite to win the U.S. election against President Donald Trump, according to an average of 7 different forecast models released on Thursday.

Presidential elections in the U.S. are not decided by who gets the most votes. In order to actually win the contest, a candidate must receive a majority of votes in the Electoral College. There are a total of 538 individuals from each state who decide which candidate becomes president. Candidates need at least 270 Electoral College votes to clinch the presidency.

While those electors often follow the popular vote, that has not always been the case. In the 2016 presidential election, Hillary Clinton won the popular vote against Trump, gaining 48.2 percent of the vote to Trump's 46.1 percent. However, Trump picked up 306 Electoral College votes to Clinton's 232 votes, making Trump the president.

In each of Thursday's seven election forecast models, Biden was projected to win both the popular vote and the Electoral College. As averaged together by the website Election Dice, those models predicted that Trump has a 17.9 percent chance of winning while Biden has an 81.8 percent chance of winning. Biden's odds of victory are projected to be nearly five times greater than that of President Trump's.

Data from The Economist showed Biden holding an 8-point lead over Trump, 54 percent to 46 percent respectively. Biden was projected to get 335 votes in the Electoral College, more than the 270 votes needed to become president. Trump was projected to receive 203 electoral votes.

Polling site FiveThirtyEight placed Biden ahead of Trump in the popular vote. Biden held 52.7 percentage points to President Trump's 46 percent. Based on those numbers, Biden was projected to receive 328 votes in the Electoral College

(Excerpt) Read more at newsweek.com ...


TOPICS: Culture/Society; News/Current Events; Politics/Elections
KEYWORDS: biden; concerntroll; election; forecastmodels; lol
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To: SeekAndFind

A model based on nothing but polling data? Heck yeah, I’ll believe it! Sheesh.


41 posted on 09/25/2020 12:09:22 PM PDT by Retrofitted
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To: SeekAndFind

Another election... A lot more crying. The anti-trump anti American media will be responsible for all the suicides in November.

42 posted on 09/25/2020 12:10:10 PM PDT by jerod (Nazi's were essentially Socialist in Hugo Boss uniforms... Get over it!)
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To: SeekAndFind
Biden Nearly 5 Times More Likely than Trump to Win Election

             

43 posted on 09/25/2020 12:11:11 PM PDT by tomkat
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To: E. Pluribus Unum

Odds were 200-1 in Aug 2016.
I was seriously considering betting 10k Trump was going to win.


44 posted on 09/25/2020 12:11:53 PM PDT by Zathras
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To: SeekAndFind

Can’t make this sh*t up, huh?

/s


45 posted on 09/25/2020 12:12:25 PM PDT by cranked
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To: SeekAndFind

It sounds like they are using the Ballots In The Dumpster index to calculate this.


46 posted on 09/25/2020 12:14:20 PM PDT by posterchild
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To: Retrofitted

The same guy who did the China Virus modeling back in March obviously.


47 posted on 09/25/2020 12:14:26 PM PDT by Buckeye McFrog (Patrick Henry would have been an anti-vaxxer.)
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To: SeekAndFind

This is like AOL predicting Hillary had a 90% chance of winning. Yes, they really predicted that.


48 posted on 09/25/2020 12:14:29 PM PDT by GrandJediMasterYoda (As long as Hillary Clinton remains free equal justice under the law will never exist in the USA)
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To: SeekAndFind

And Hillary had a 95% chance of winning on Election Day 2016...


49 posted on 09/25/2020 12:14:35 PM PDT by CA Conservative (Texan by birth, Californian by circumstance)
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To: SeekAndFind

OMG...Biden is so much of a weaker candidate than Clinton AND enthusiasm from Trump is WAY over than it was in 2016. The MSM must thing we’re absolute morons.


50 posted on 09/25/2020 12:15:13 PM PDT by DouglasKC
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To: Lurkinanloomin
“Hillary has a 95% chance of winning.......”

That works out to 20 times more likely to win. The Biden number of 5 times more likely to win are rookie numbers, they gotta pump those number up!

51 posted on 09/25/2020 12:15:49 PM PDT by wildcard_redneck ("Those who would give up essential Liberty, to purchase a little temporary Safety, deserve neither.")
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To: SeekAndFind

Hahahahaha hahahahaha hahaha

I need to put some money on Trump.. going to get a big payday


52 posted on 09/25/2020 12:16:40 PM PDT by HamiltonJay
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To: Lurkinanloomin
Hillary has a 95% chance of winning <<<<

Yes..and a 70% chance to winning this yrs 2020 POTUS election..

53 posted on 09/25/2020 12:17:10 PM PDT by M-cubed (The MSM is now the 4th Branch of Government.....)
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To: mikey_hates_everything

I am in suburban Pittsburgh.

Strangely you see few Trump signs driving around.
A growing number of Biden signs which having lived here most of my life I just know are the work of union hacks and Democrat block captains.

I think frankly most Trump supporters around here prefer to remain in stealth mode. There were some ANTIFA incidents in the area which I think have spooked people about having their homes vandalized.

You know his supporters are here because he had that HUGE turnout at his rally the other night.


54 posted on 09/25/2020 12:17:44 PM PDT by Buckeye McFrog (Patrick Henry would have been an anti-vaxxer.)
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To: tomkat

Biden Nearly 5 Times More Likely than Trump to Win Election


So Trump has a 20% of winning this time around? That is 10x better than he had in 2016!


55 posted on 09/25/2020 12:18:26 PM PDT by Trump.Deplorable
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To: DouglasKC

Hillary was a singularly unlikeable candidate. Perhaps the least likeable of all time. I am still stunned that the Democrats failed to realize this.

In Joe’s case I think a lot of people can see what bad shape he’s in and at the end of the day will refuse to vote him into the world’s most stressful job.

Particularly when that Communist whackjob is his #2. Look at her primary numbers. Most Democrats don’t even like her.


56 posted on 09/25/2020 12:19:47 PM PDT by Buckeye McFrog (Patrick Henry would have been an anti-vaxxer.)
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To: Mashood

Correction: Biden projected to get 32 electoral votes...


57 posted on 09/25/2020 12:20:28 PM PDT by tet68 ( " We would not die in that man's company, that fears his fellowship to die with us...." Henry V.)
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To: SeekAndFind
The bull has escaped the pasture and is $hitting all over the place!
58 posted on 09/25/2020 12:21:20 PM PDT by liberalh8ter (The only difference between flash mob 'urban yutes' and U.S. politicians is the hoodies.)
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To: SeekAndFind

Just keep on believing that. I don’t mind. You’re going to get the shock of your lives - again!


59 posted on 09/25/2020 12:21:31 PM PDT by OrangeHoof (COVID infects the Democrat brain and makes them drunk with power.)
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To: tet68

Right....where is Joe..


60 posted on 09/25/2020 12:22:07 PM PDT by Hojczyk
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