Posted on 09/25/2020 11:50:30 AM PDT by SeekAndFind
Democratic presidential candidate Joe Biden is the odds-on favorite to win the U.S. election against President Donald Trump, according to an average of 7 different forecast models released on Thursday.
Presidential elections in the U.S. are not decided by who gets the most votes. In order to actually win the contest, a candidate must receive a majority of votes in the Electoral College. There are a total of 538 individuals from each state who decide which candidate becomes president. Candidates need at least 270 Electoral College votes to clinch the presidency.
While those electors often follow the popular vote, that has not always been the case. In the 2016 presidential election, Hillary Clinton won the popular vote against Trump, gaining 48.2 percent of the vote to Trump's 46.1 percent. However, Trump picked up 306 Electoral College votes to Clinton's 232 votes, making Trump the president.
In each of Thursday's seven election forecast models, Biden was projected to win both the popular vote and the Electoral College. As averaged together by the website Election Dice, those models predicted that Trump has a 17.9 percent chance of winning while Biden has an 81.8 percent chance of winning. Biden's odds of victory are projected to be nearly five times greater than that of President Trump's.
Data from The Economist showed Biden holding an 8-point lead over Trump, 54 percent to 46 percent respectively. Biden was projected to get 335 votes in the Electoral College, more than the 270 votes needed to become president. Trump was projected to receive 203 electoral votes.
Polling site FiveThirtyEight placed Biden ahead of Trump in the popular vote. Biden held 52.7 percentage points to President Trump's 46 percent. Based on those numbers, Biden was projected to receive 328 votes in the Electoral College
(Excerpt) Read more at newsweek.com ...
A model based on nothing but polling data? Heck yeah, I’ll believe it! Sheesh.
Another election... A lot more crying. The anti-trump anti American media will be responsible for all the suicides in November.
Odds were 200-1 in Aug 2016.
I was seriously considering betting 10k Trump was going to win.
Can’t make this sh*t up, huh?
/s
It sounds like they are using the Ballots In The Dumpster index to calculate this.
The same guy who did the China Virus modeling back in March obviously.
This is like AOL predicting Hillary had a 90% chance of winning. Yes, they really predicted that.
And Hillary had a 95% chance of winning on Election Day 2016...
OMG...Biden is so much of a weaker candidate than Clinton AND enthusiasm from Trump is WAY over than it was in 2016. The MSM must thing we’re absolute morons.
That works out to 20 times more likely to win. The Biden number of 5 times more likely to win are rookie numbers, they gotta pump those number up!
Hahahahaha hahahahaha hahaha
I need to put some money on Trump.. going to get a big payday
Yes..and a 70% chance to winning this yrs 2020 POTUS election..
I am in suburban Pittsburgh.
Strangely you see few Trump signs driving around.
A growing number of Biden signs which having lived here most of my life I just know are the work of union hacks and Democrat block captains.
I think frankly most Trump supporters around here prefer to remain in stealth mode. There were some ANTIFA incidents in the area which I think have spooked people about having their homes vandalized.
You know his supporters are here because he had that HUGE turnout at his rally the other night.
Biden Nearly 5 Times More Likely than Trump to Win Election
So Trump has a 20% of winning this time around? That is 10x better than he had in 2016!
Hillary was a singularly unlikeable candidate. Perhaps the least likeable of all time. I am still stunned that the Democrats failed to realize this.
In Joe’s case I think a lot of people can see what bad shape he’s in and at the end of the day will refuse to vote him into the world’s most stressful job.
Particularly when that Communist whackjob is his #2. Look at her primary numbers. Most Democrats don’t even like her.
Correction: Biden projected to get 32 electoral votes...
Just keep on believing that. I don’t mind. You’re going to get the shock of your lives - again!
Right....where is Joe..
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