Posted on 09/16/2020 6:07:27 PM PDT by bitt
Professor's model 'a leading indicator' of November results
rofessor of political science whose controversial election model has correctly called five of the last six U.S. presidential elections says President Trump will win reelection in 2020 in a "landslide."
Helmut Norpoth, who teaches at Stony Brook University, is giving Trump "a 90-percent chance of being re-elected in a landslide," the Long Island, N.Y., school said in a recent press release.
Norpoth's "Primary Model" has correctly predicted nearly every presidential election since 1996, missing only George Bush's 2000 victory over Al Gore. (When the model is "applied to previous elections," Stonybrook said, it "correctly predicts an impressive 25 of the last 27.")
The model utilizes data from presidential primaries to help predict who will win.
"I focus on early primaries and the way the candidates perform in those early contests," Norpoth said in the press release. "It's a very good predictor, and a leading indicator of what's going to happen in November."
The professor said he was unsurprised at the model's prediction this year, citing Trump's performance in the primaries earlier in the winter.
"When I looked at New Hampshire and I saw that Donald Trump got 85 percent of the votes ... I was pretty sure what the model was going to predict," he said in the release.
Joe Biden, on the other hand, pulled down only 8.4% in New Hampshire, Norpoth said, a number that is "unbelievable for a candidate with any aspirations of being president," he stated.
P
Great news bump!
The man who predicted Trump becoming president back in the 1980s says there won’t be an election. What would need to happen for that to be the case?
Make it 6 of 7.
In the books!
MAGA MAGMA!
What values did they use for the most important parameters in the model?
“Democrat Ballot Harvesting cheating”
“Democrat mail-in vote cheating”
“Democrat votes found in the car trunk cheating”
“Democrat same-day registration voting cheating”
“Democrat bus the voters to multiple states to vote cheating”
“Democrat dead people voting cheating”
Does the model take massive vote fraud and ballot harvesting into account?
Like Ragu, it’s all in there. 5 out of 6 right.
Democrat judges ruling to count clearly fraudulent votes. Can’t forget that.
[Joe Biden, on the other hand, pulled down only 8.4% in New Hampshire]
Wow. That sounds about right.
I tell people that 90% to 95% of the comments on Yahoo, which is more than half Huffington Post it seems, were AGAINST Joe Biden.
Almost EVERYONE disliked Joe Biden.
[Joe Biden, on the other hand, pulled down only 8.4% in New Hampshire]
Wow. That sounds about right.
I tell people that 90% to 95% of the comments on Yahoo, which is more than half Huffington Post it seems, were AGAINST Joe Biden.
Almost EVERYONE disliked Joe Biden.
Yeah, that was the new one yesterday — can’t throw out ballots with bad signatures. Unbelievable.
Great news! He’s gotta get beyond the margin of fraud as well
Send “Orange Man Bad” federal and state government desperate Democrats home in November!
Supporting PDJT with a new patriot Congress and state government leaders that will promise to fully support his already excellent work for MAGA and stopping SARS-CoV-2 will effectively give fast-working Trump a “third term” in office imo.
I don’t see any problem with voting Republican ticket for 2020 elections.
Insights welcome.
Ray Charles could have seen this coming.
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