Primary night in 5 states, OPEN THREAD (MICH, MO, KS, WA, AZ)

With that burn rate in that hopeless district, I guarantee you that Lacy Johnson has spent the overwhelming majority of his fundraising haul to finance more fundraising. That’s the modus operandi of political consultants for GOP candidates in hopeless districts where the RAT is a hateful figure off which conservatives can fundraise. I’m not implying that Johnson is a charlatan (although he may be; I just don’t know), but that his fundraising consultants are in it for themselves.

Do credit Ruffini, not I.

He seems like a good guy to follow on twitter.

What a wonderful scam. 🤨 Should we want Omar to win? She's clearly a fundraising draw for us.

She draws ire too, ire is good.

Actually he got it from Echelon, whom I credited.

A healthy turnout here in my precinct in Scottsdale. Most of those in line were for the Republican primary. People are sick of democrats around these parts.

Hi LS.
Saw this over on thedonald.win, I’d like your take on it.

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Here is the breakdown of the races Republicans need to win to take the house. There are 30 races here. Two of those races are tied and 28 are leads by the Republican candidate. This tells us 4 things.

1 Trump is not a drain. This suggests he will win.

The Republicans are just now starting to surge and come up. Expect three or four more to enter into this watchlist.

The Republicans need to win 17 seats to take control of the house and give them the polls right now that looks very possible

Polls under rate Republicans by 3%to 5% so anything that is a tie is a Republican win. This is right now, I expect Republicans attached to the president to move up with him and that should bring up to 10 more seats in to play

Arizona 1st Congressional District. Democrat Incumbent Tom O’Halleran 47%, Republican Challenger Tiffany Shedd 48%,

Arizona 2nd Congressional District. Democrat Incumbent Ann Kirkpatrick 46%, Republican Challenger Brandon Martin 47%,

California 10th Congressional District. Democrat Incumbent Josh Harder 46%, Republican Challenger Ted Howze 50%,

California 39th Congressional District. Democrat Incumbent Gil Cisneros 45%, Republican Challenger Young Kim 52%,

California 45th Congressional District. Democrat Incumbent Katie Porter 44%, Republican Challenger Greg Raths 51%,

California 48th Congressional District. Democrat Incumbent Haley Rouda 45%, Republican Challenger Michelle Steel 50%,

California 21st Congressional District. Democrat Incumbent TJ Cox 44%, Republican Challenger David Valadao 52%,

Georgia 6th Congressional District. Democrat Incumbent Lucy McBath 44%, Republican Challenger Karen Handel 53%,

Illinois 6th Congressional District. Democrat Incumbent Sean Casten 47%, Republican Challenger Jeanne Ives 51%,

Illinois 14th Congressional District. Democrat Incumbent Lauren Underwood 45%, Republican Challenger Jim Oberweiss 50%,

Iowa 1st Congressional District Democrat Incumbent Abby Finkenauer 43%, Republican Challenger Ashley Hinson 49%,

Iowa 2nd Congressional District. (Democrat Loeback Retiring) Republican Nominee Mariannette Miller-Meeks 49%, Democrat Nominee Rita Hart 46%

Iowa 3rd Congressional District. Democrat Incumbent Cindy Axne 44%, Republican Challenger David Young 50%,

Kansas 3rd Congressional District. Democrat Incumbent Sharice David’s 46%, Republican Nominee Amanda Adkins 51%

Maine 2nd Congressional District. Democrat Incumbent Jared Golden 46%, Republican Challenger Dale Crafts 51%,

Michigan 8th Congressional District Democrat Incumbent Elissa Slotkin 46%, Republican Challenger Paul Junge 49%

Michigan 11th Congressional District Democrat Incumbent Haley Stevens 46%, Republican Challenger Eric Esshaki 47%, .

Minnesota 2nd Congressional District. Democrat Incumbent Angie Craig 47%, Republican Challenger Tyler Kistner 49%

Minnesota 7th Congressional District. Democrat Incumbent Collin Peterson 46%, Republican Nominee 48%

Nevada 3rd Congressional District. Democrat Incumbent Susie Lee 46%, Republican Challenger Daniel Rodimer 46%

New Jersey 3rd Congressional District. Democrat Incumbent Andrew Kim 46%, Republican Challenger David Richter 49%,

New Jersey 7th Congressional District. Democrat Incumbent Tom Malinowski 47%, Republican Challenger Thomas Kean 49%,

New Mexico 2nd Congressional District. Democrat Incumbent Xochitl Torres Small 46%, Republican Challenger Yvette Herrell 51%,

New York 19th Congressional District. Democrat Incumbent Antonio Delgado 46%, Republican Challenger Kyle Van De Water 48%,

New York 22nd Democrat Incumbent Anthony Brindisi 47%, Republican Challenger Claudia Tenney 51%

Oklahoma 5th Congressional District. Democrat Incumbent Kendra Horn 45%, Republican Nominee 51%

Pennsylvania 8th Congressional District. Democrat Incumbent Matt Cartwright 48%, Republican Challenger Jim Bogart 48%

South Carolina 1st Congressional District. Democrat Incumbent Joe Cunningham 44%, Republican Challenger Nancy Mace 51%,

Texas 7th Congressional District. Democrat Incumbent Lizzie Pannill Fletcher 47%, Republican Challenger Wesley Hunt 50%,

Utah 4th Congressional District. Democrat incumbent Ben McAdams 45%, Republican challenger Burgess Owens 52%

Here are the ones I think we will likely win:
CA21
GA6
IA2
NJ3
NM2
NY22
OK5
SC1
UT4

Here are the tossups:
CA39
IL14
NJ7
MN7

You left out a couple of TX districts that should flip and at least one FL and one VA seat. Taylor in VA should get his back. That’s 10 +2 in TX. We still need 7-8 more to be safe. NC will have two seats likely flip due to redistricting, but those are offset by Jeff Van Drew switching parties and Mike Garcia holding his new seat. And we already flipped WI7, so perhaps we’re closer to needing 6 more pickups.