COVID-19 Update - 07/26/2020

My own workup | 07/26/2020 | DoughtyOne

[DoughtyOne]

PING LIST - Please contact me as needed...

COVID-19 Update # 130

As of 07/25/2020 23:15 PDST     United States CDC - Provisional Numbers
As of 00/00/2020 23:45 PDST     Johns Hopkins University - Capture Nations Informaton
As of 00/00/2020 23:45 PDST     Johns Hopkins University - Capture Counties Information
As of 00/00/2020 23:46 PDST     Johns Hopkins University - Process JHU Data
As of 00/00/2020 23:59 PDST     WorldofMeters - Document Core Numbers
As of 00/00/2020 23:59 PDST     WorldofMeters - Capture Nations Information
As of 00/00/2020 23:59 PDST     WorldofMeters - Capture States Information
As of 00/00/2020 00:00 PDST     WorldofMeters - Data Processing begins...
As of 00/00/2020 ??:?? PDST     Publish COVID-19 Update - 00/00/00

Thank you for stopping by to check out the COVID-19 Update.

Here you can find...

Section: 01     Commentary, Special Reports, COVID-19 Update Info, & System Notes
Section: 02     the United States Situation
Section: 03     the Global Community Situation Outside China
Section: 04     the Global Community Situation Including China with reservations
Section: 05     the Mortality Report
Section: 06     Miscellaneous Reports of Interest
Section: 07     the United States, Counties (alphabetical / case no descending)
Section: 08     the United States, States Ranking, Provisional Numbers, & Territories
Section: 09     the United States, Ranked with Other Nations
Section: 10     the End of this COVID-19 Update
Section: 11     Data Sources and a Link to My Own Spreadsheet
Section: 12     Linked Spreadsheet: Counties, States, Provisional, Territories, & Nations
Section: 13     Links to Other Resources

Section: 01

Commentary, Special Reports, and COVID-19 Update Information³
Interesting Tid-bits (hopefully)

Fatalities

For the first time in five days, the number of Fatalities dropped below 1,000.
There were 906 Fatalities.

Global Case Level

Yesterday the number of Globally Declared New Cases zipped past the 16 million
mark.

Testing in the United States

Yesterday we tested 830,000 people. Postives rose a smidgeon to
to 8.098%. That was a 0.005% increase.

Section: 02

The Following Addresses the Numbers Here in
the United Staetes of America

Here we go...

New Case came in 11,284 lower than the day before yesterday. Testing had dropped
to 830,042.

Concept of adding in Active Cases and Serious Critical here, courtesy of amorphous

Here are more of our numbers...

Our Active Cases are still growing. Our New Case declarations are still high.

I want to call your attention to the far right column there. This category has
gone down less than 200 points from an all time high in the U. S., and yet I'm
hearing rave reviews of how much better things are because of it. LOL

We are still 2,000 over the previous record level just 5 days ago. Try not to
laugh too hard as you hear this "stuff".

Our Slice of the COVID-19 Pie

The growth of our slice of the pie has been increasing recently.

Here are the numbers I've been tracking, Globally Declared and Active Cases.

Another minimalist mixed bag here yesterday.

Active Cases in the United States / Chart

Unlike some of the other charts here, we should see a good rise and
fall at some point withone.

Note that this presents the single, seven, and fourteen day averaging versions.

Remember, these are not new Declared Cases. These are remaing Active Cases.

Clearly the single, seven, and fourteen day lines are moving way up.

Testing and New Case Figures
Requested by stocksthatgoup

Some folks have shown an interest in seeing the COVID-19 Test figures compared
to the New Cases being declared. The following Data addresses that. The size
of it just doesn't seem reasoned to me.

Why/how could the posive portion of the popoulace vary ass much as 2.0% from day
to day? I could a lot easier see a 2.0% trend over three or four days. One day?
Nah.

In the last few days, we have had a positive percentage drift that looked more
realistic. That was the sort of drift I would expect to see when processing so
many tests one day to the next.

We provided 830,046 tests yesterday.

We seem to have leveled off between 8 & 9.00% as a postive testing level over the
last five days.

The U. S. Stats / w 10 Day Averaging / Fr: 03/17
Requested by: Texas Eagle

This data and chart presents things in a little different way. In the
chart it is easy to see the relationship of these numbers.

The Chart will use the data all the way back to 03/17, but the data displayed
here will only go back one month.

Here is the chart to match.

The Active Cases and Resolved Cases have intersected. The Recovered Cases look
poised to be next to intersect with the Active Case line.

Section: 03

The Following Addresses the Global Numbers
without Mainland China

Here is the first set of Data for the Global Outside China
Territories

Numbers still remain very high both on the domestic and international scenes.

Fata.lities, Recoveries, Resolved, Active Cases, and
Serious/Critical Cases - Globally, Excluding M/L China
Concept of adding in Active Cases and
Serious/Critical here, courtesy of amorphous

Here we go...

For your review...

How is the Global Community Outside China Doing,
Without U. S. numbers?

Let's see...

This metric still remained high yesterday, but dropped due to it being a Saturday.

Look at the Global regions there. Notice that even for a Saturday, the number came
in higher than anything prior to three days before.

At least in the United States we've flattened out in this seven-day chart.

. The Active Cases outside China Globally / Chart

As in the U. S. version of this, we should see a good rise and fall at
some point these two.

Note that these present the one day and then 7 and 14 day averaging versions.

Remember, these are not new declared Cases. These are remaing active cases.

Special Section on France, Germany, Italy, Spain, and the U. K.
Case growth.

Jim Noble mentioned he'd like to see the US numbers added here. I added them
in on 06/21/2020. I did not add them to the chart because it would have
dwarfed the European nations chart lines. (they would have been reduced to
about 15% of their normal size)

Let's Look at Some Numbers in Five Day Increments:

Spain seems to be spiking an upturn in its New Cases.

Sweden and It's Neighbors, Who Has the Best Tactic Against COVID-19?

Sweden is doing its own thing with regard to isolating. I think most people
are aware of it by now.

Here are some numbers to help us look at this issue.

Sweden is continuing to level out in its new cases.

Movers and Shakers...

I will present the top fifty nations with the most New Cases and New
Fatilities.

Here we go...

Our New Cases and Fatalities fell off for the day yesterday.

Global osChina Stats / w 10 Day Averaging / Fr: 03/05
Requested by: Texas Eagle

This data and chart presents things in a little different way. In the
chart it is easy to see the relationship of these numbers.

The Chart will use the data all the way back to 03/05, but the data
displayed here will only go back one month.

Here is the chart to match.

I like being able to follow the movement of these stats visually.

Section: 04

The Following Addresses the Global Numbers
including Mainland China*

Mainland China's numbers are 0.005% of today's total global numbers.

A Look at Declared, Resolved<, and Active Cases, Includes M/L China

End of day figures follow:

We did hit the 65.00% Resolved Level the day before yesterday, and we're
continuing to climb minimally.

Fatalities, Recoveries, Resolved, Active, and Serious/Critical
Cases Globally, Including M/L China
Concept of adding in Active Cases and
Serious/Critical here, courtesy of amorphous

For your review...

Section: 05

the Mortality Report

Here is the data for four entities...

Here are the figures for the growing case totals for four entities.

We hear all sorts of stories about how these figures are wildly off. The CDC
has studied them and seems to think they may actually be on the low side of
things. I am providing the CDC Provential Numbers down below. Not sure if
anyone has a rock solid number. I doubt it is possible. This is what is
reported out by WoM and JHU. Check out the CDC numbers too.

Charts like this one only show growth. That's why I recently took the advice
of a FReeper and added in a new chart for the U. S. and Global outside China
regions.

Here are figures revealing the daily growth for those four entities.

For four days in a row, we topped out over 1,000 Fatalities per day. Yesterday
fell to 906.

Since the beginning of COVID-19's activity in the U. S., higher New Cases were
soon followed by elevated Fatalities. If we have gone to school on the data
of this disease, we know who should avoid exposure the most. So if the
demographic that has little to fear from the disease is out there getting
infected, it may not be a bad thing at all. If the Fatalities remain low,
vastly higher cases may simply increase the rapidity of the saturation of the
people in public who have already fought it off. And that may facilitate the
end of the disease. I'm sure others know this, but I did want to explain why
my thinking has fluctuated over time regarding these dynamics.

Here, let's look at data for the U. S. broken out by itself.

It was nice to see Fatalities drop below 1,000 yesterday.

Look at that spike yesterday. Not liking this...

Section: 06

Population Saturation

Here are figures revealing how many people in each population base represent one
case. I'm also showing what percent of each population base is infected at this
time.

A few days ago I wrote, we just passed the half a percentage point of our populace's
infection rate. Now we're already above 0.6360%. I need to remind here, that
this only means that percentage of the populace has come up positive at some point.

Over half of them are no longer Active Cases at this time.

Nations With Lots of Cases

At the end of the day yesterday, there were:

It's hard to belive there are that many nations with 1,000 cases.

Daily Case Report Evaluation

I'll be keeping tabs on the daily tallies for days of the week for a while. Folks have
noticed some patterns of larger and smaller data entry on certain days, and on Fridays
sometimes the numbers get noticeably larger because of it.

And we now know Thursdays have potential to break out also. Yikes!

IMO Let's check out the numbers and a chart.

Yesterday came in with a massive new record for Global New Cases, 288,604.

NOTICE: These columns were getting harder and harder to see. I decided to create
a larger chart and allow you to right click veiw it. I think you'll like the
better detail.

Section: 07

The Top 200 Counties in the U. S., by Number of Cases

This little report lists 200 Counties in the United States in declining Case numbers.
There is also a listing that is alphabetical. This report list only the entities
and the number of Cases in the two different sorts.

It will also be available as a downloadable Excel file in Section 12.

For months Puerto Rico was showing up with the Counties. That stopped about a
week ago.

Section: 08

States of the Union and the District of Columbia, Compared to Each Other

Each of these pages is sorted differently. Look at the red header above
the columns to see which column was used for the sort on any given page.

For your review...

For your review...

For your review...

For your review...

For your review...

For your review...

For your review...

For your review...

For your review...

If this area interests you, please use this LINK to the source, and review
the lengthy description and explanation of it's development process.

There are two reports. The presentation above comes from the second one,
and the detailed segmented information below it, may interest you.

These can now also be found under the states on the Alphabetical list. The
states and these entity's numbers should be combined to match that of the
U. S. figures each day.

Section: 09

The United States, Where it Ranks With Other Nations?

Each of these pages is sorted differently. Look at the red header above
the columns to see which column was used for the sort on any given page.

The U. S. will be highlighted red here so we can find it easily in the list.
There was 215 nations on this list last night now. I didn't want to post
seven lists with 215 nations on it, so I picked the top 50. Coincidentally,
one report category had the U. S. at 41st, so it wasn't showing up on the
list with the 31 top nations on it. That wasn't the reason why I extended the
list length, but it did work out well.

I work on the nations right next to the states on my spreadsheet. The
states with the District of Columbia come in at a total of 51 lines.
I decided to keep the international reports near that length, and 50
was good enough.

Here we go... for your review.

For your review...

For your review...

For your review...

For your review...

For your review...

Around 06/23, China started putting out it's testing numbers. I thought
they were suspect. The number they put out was 90,410,000. Ours and most
everyone else's numbers are specific. For instance on 06/28, our number of
of tests at the ned of the day was 32,592,368. That specificity separates it
from the number China put out. It was rounded to the 10 thousandth place. In
addition, China has not updated that number once. So I do not inlude China in
the Nation's Comparison Sort regarding Testing, and any place that reports out
global testing numbers for a top level comparison.

We rose to 22nd place in this category a few days ago. It is the highest standing
we've seen so far.

Section: 10

Here is what it is all about. From January 20th to the present.

This concludes our look back at yesterday's data. Take care...

Court Sesy of: foldspace

Section: 11

Data for this Report Sourced From:

LINK   WorldoMeters

LINK   Johns Hopkins University
               The Center for Systems Science and Engineering (CSSE)

LINK   United States Center for Disease Control - Provisional Numbers

Listed in the order of current utilization...

LINK   You are Invited to Review My COVID-19 Spreadsheet (XLSX)
               There is not an XLS version available for distribution at this time.

Section: 12

Other Features:

LINK   US Counties²⁰⁰, States & DC⁵¹, Territories & Other Entities¹¹, Nations²¹⁹,
                and the CDC Provisional Counts⁵³
                Five Excel Spreadsheet datasets you can sort for your own studies...

Section: 13

Links to other resources:
I cannot vouch for these sites. Please use your own judgement.

LINK   Adventist Health Coronavirus Resource Hub - Scroll down for useful info

LINK   Antibiotic Vitamin, the (Vitamin D)
               Good article on Vitamin D's likely role in prevention of infection. Thanks Blam.

LINK   CDC Data for Download - Scroll down - Excel required. Includes death stats.

LINK   CDC National Center for Health Services
               Provisional deaths as determined by review of vital documents. Much lower...

LINK   CDC Secondary Data and Statistics - Portal Entry / Look around

LINK   Coronavirus (COVID-19) Map

LINK   Coronavirus infection risk may be reduced by Vitamin D
               by Former CDC Chief Dr. Tom Frieden

LINK   Coronavirus Spread Quickly Around the World in Late 2019, Study Shows
               the University College London Genetics Institute

LINK   COVID-19 Deaths Broken Out by Thirds, 05/07/20 Map of US Counties
               Very revealing display of Concentrated Death Zones - thanks hoosiermama

LINK   COVID-19 First U.S. Case, Treatment, features Remdesivir
               New England Journal of Medicine article

LINK   Cytokine Storm, med Actemra, Physician near death saved

LINK   Diamond Princess Review at 634 Case Point of Eventual 712

LINK   Hydroxychloroquine Article: International Poll
               Daily Mail Reports, Most Effective Treatment According to 6,000 Physicians

LINK   Hydroxychloroquine Has about 90 Percent Chance of Helping COVID-19 Patients
               the Association of American Physicians and Surgeons, reports 91.6% of patients improved clinically

LINK   IHME - Institute for Health Matrix and Evaluation

LINK   National Institutes of Health - Cornavirus (COVID-19)

LINK   Nasal Irrigation is the Key, COVID-19 Related

LINK   New York City - interesting breakdown, borough, age, sex

LINK   On the Origin of CCP Virus, A Documentary Movie (turn up the sound)
               Epoch Times: I highly recommend this very well documented report.

LINK   R_t COVID-19
               Calculates and displays the R_t Factor for each state. Thanks FreedomPoster.

LINK   World Health Organization

[DoughtyOne]

                       

[Reaganez]

BTW Sweden has the worst unemployment rate in the Nordics (9%), the worst economic contraction(5%) and the highest deaths per million 564 (vs 47 for Norway).

[Paul R.]

Sweden has the worst unemployment rate in the Nordics (9%), the worst economic contraction(5%)...

Exactly what they were trying to avoid...

[amorphous]

26 Jul:

We will top 150,000 fatalities today on WOM. On a positive note, we are well below the new case trend line. If we can just stay below it, fatalities will fall as well, after a short lag.

•Blue line represents projected death totals.
•Yellow line is actual death totals based on WorldofMeters.info data.
•Purple line is actual daily cases offset by 14 days.
•Red line represents projected daily deaths.
•Black extension lines are trend lines.

[Cronos]

Thats bad. Looks like it will be 200k dead by the elections

[miserare]

Thanks for the one positive note.

Things are stable in my county...290 cases...29 deaths, most of them in nursing homes.

[amorphous]

You bring up a great point. We should all be looking at the situation close to our home in determining how we should deal with this.

[amorphous]

Not going to bode well for the upcoming. My earlier estimation:

Based on WOM data, if rate of infection and recoveries stay the same, we could see 150k deaths from covid by August, around 200k near the 1st October, 225k dying before the election in November, and 250k dead before the year is out, ATMC.

https://freerepublic.com/focus/news/3864396/posts?page=19#19

[Cronos]

your estimation looks very conservative. With the uptick in deaths from the heartland, it looks like over 200K by 1 October. Definitely not going to bode well

[Cronos]

The interesting thing is that Penn state has 7K deaths (at 562 deaths per million) in a population of 12 million.

Here in Poland we have had 1.7K deaths (at 44 deaths per million) in a population of 38 million.