I don’t. And I don’t think that’s what this is about.
In case you forgot, Trump went through essentially FIVE campaign managers in 2016: Lewandowski, Manafort, Bannon, Conway, Parscale, with Jared always an unnamed manager.
Manafort was brought in right before the convention for one job only: get Trump’s delegates to stay in line. He succeeded. He was out within five weeks.
To this day, none of the “insiders” (including myself) who wrote about the 2016 campaign are sure who was actually directing things. It appeared to be management by committee, with scheduling generally handled by Conway, strategy/message by Conway and Bannon, then Parscale finding interesting data points like how close they were in WI, PA, and MI. Jared handled the finances like a pro, doing the campaign on a shoestring.
Right now, the messaging is inconsistent. That’s for a reason: right now it’s not clear WHAT the message should be-—whether the main target here is the economy and reopening or whether it’s BLM/antifa riots, or whether it’s a combo of the two with the Deep State thrown in.
I personally think Trump is wise in NOT choosing yet and watching things shake out for a month. August is a good time to really roll out “the” message. I have sent the campaign a suggestion for a “Justice for ALL” motif that would address the
*Injustice of destroying businesses through continued lockdowns
*Injustice of ordinary citizens in big cities afraid for their lives because of rioters
*Injustice of no-knock warrants (a sop to Libertarians and some on the left, and yes, you have to have SOMETHING that appeals to other than conservatives)
*Injustice of a two-tiered system of elites getting away with everything (the coupsters).
I think properly refined and focused, this message could be a real killer. But before it comes out, Trump must make sure that the citizens of the big blue cities are ready for it. They are alcoholics who haven’t quite reached “Leaving Las Vegas” levels yet. They must BEG for the help. (Not the mayors, the people). Also, I think the lockdowns will wear REALLY thin especially on parents who are nuts to get their kids out of the house and back to gubment schools.
Trump will have to carefully pit the “people” against their mayors and governors, which I think can be done. It will be trickier in TX and AZ where he needs local help to have rallies, etc. But the entire message must be framed as “In so many ways we’ve become a lawless, uncivil society. Time to take back our lives.”
Now, I. DON’T. BELIEVE. POLLS. I’ve given up poll analysis, but Mike Sheppard on Twit still does it, and they are ALL D=5 to D=12 (yes, 12). Baris told me two weeks ago he had Trump up 2 in PA; Trafalgar has him up 1 in WI; I think he’s up here in AZ. ALL the pollsters told me they are having real serious trouble identifying Trump voters this time around, even when at the beginning of a personal call poll they say they are Trump voters but won’t say so on the poll out of fear. They both think the level is DOUBLE the 2016 level.
So just a reminder of why the polls likely are way, way off:
1) Voter registration in FL, PA, IA, NH, NC is Republican positive. In each state, PLUS NM AND NV, the Rs have shaved big % (and in some case big actual #s) off the D registration leads since 2016. In FL it’s over 100,000; in PA, 85,000; in NC, 82,000, in NM 10,000, in NV 13,000. These are significant. If Trump was losing, you would be seeing the opposite.
2) Student vote will be down HUGE in November as I showed in my uncoverdc.com article last week. My estimate is that nationally Ds are looking at a shortfall of 1 to 1.5m but that’s at a “reopen” rate of 70%. Many big universities, including the whole U Cal and Cal State systems (plus USC, Pomona, Harvard, Georgetown, Princeton) are going to be 100% remote. This could drive the student turnout from 45% in 2018 to as low as 30% or more in 2020. Don’t discount this. Several individual House districts will be deeply affected including NM2 (New Mexico State), whatever IA district Ames is in (IA State), Maricopa County, AZ (AZ 9) which has 100,000 students . . . you get the picture. Figure out in your state’s most competitive district what a shortfall of 30% students would do.
3) The black vote has shifted. Not overwhelmingly, but substantially. Sheppard has followed six polls for 3.5 years. They all come out the same: Trump is at 16-28% black approval with some outliers like Zogby even higher. Let’s assume only HALF those “approvals” vote for Trump. He will almost certainly come in at 11-12% (was at 8% in 2016) with ANOTHER 3-5% not voting. The stay at homes may be massive. Two consecutive polls (there you are with the polls if you want them) show Demented Perv Biteme at only 78% black support (Cankles lost at 88%).
When you combine 95% GOP support with -1m D Students (and that’s the DEMOKKKRAT shortfall... I already factored out College GOP), combined with a shortfall of 8-15% blacks off 2016 levels?
Sorry, but the numbers show a hugely different picture than the “polls.” They show Trump at 320-340 EVs and probably a popular vote victory. They also show a lot of House races tight.
If your numbers are correct and Trump wins in November, expect riots in the streets — again.
I’m in Twitter, Parler, and Facebook. What I’m consistently hearing is that there are more “shy” Trump voters this year than four years ago. A lot are getting polled. They are all telling the pollsters that they are voting Biden, but they aren’t, and they are staunch Trump supporters. A lot, like us, don’t answer the phone. I’m in the WalkAway group on Facebook. I’m what they call a “WalkWith”. People are leaving the Democrat party in droves. I have followed and been followed by a lot of former black Democrats that have left the plantation are are voting Trump. I didn’t see that in 2016.
Our main focus should be to make SURE we physically go to the polls (if able) because Democrats will be cheating more than they ever have. We have to overwhelm the cheating level. The President really needs to campaign in CA and NY to siphon off some of the popular vote. Too much voter fraud there that runs up the PV numbers for Democrats.
About college students, based on overhearing some college students discussing shutdowns and affect on internship..they are not happy campers.
I agree Larry. I think a lot of Trump voters will not identify themselves out of fear. On the local Nextdoor site when I stand up from a Conservative standpoint to the liberals I get private messages as to how “brave” I am. To me I am just making a stand against all the craziness going on in this country. I even put up my Trump sign early this year to take a stand in face of all that is going on.
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Bingo. Well said!
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Yep.
Ames is in IA-4, which is safe now that Steve King lost the primary.
But Iowa City (U of Iowa) is in IA-2.
post #46
There’s too much detail lost in national polls. Any RAT candidate will roll up huge numbers in California, for example, but 60% doesn’t win any more EVs. Same for NY and IL.
“Sorry, but the numbers show a hugely different picture than the “polls.””
And those are mainly the MSM polls. But Rasmussen and a few other pollsters are now showing a tightening race, RAS now has Trump within 3. Factor in the hidden shy Trump voters and Trump is likely ahead by at least a few points.
Larry, your “Justice for All” is a real Winner! I hope your message gets to the president and his campaign staff. I’m sure it will because who more than the president wants to see real justice prevail?
The Silent Majority, of all stripes, is going to carry the day.
As always, thanks.
California is being turned into Hitler’s Germany by design and on purpose by Dictator Gavin Newsom whose as corrupt, amoral, and self-serving as any Marxist ever. Believe me when I tell you the people and businesses in CA loathe and despise him.
The GOP and the Deplorables in every state need to get behind this recall. Newsom’s recall and the destruction of his political aspirations will send the Blue State governators, mayors, and city councils a clear message; you’re not wanted; get the hell out of office.
Agree. I posted the same thing yesterday:
At this point in 2016, candidate Trump replaced Corey Lewandowski with Paul Manafort to go into the convention.After the convention, nominee Trump replaced Manafort with Steve Bannon and Kellyanne Conway for the general election.
Should the MSM be working on their next "Trump Replaces Campaign Manager" story, just to have the spin ready when it comes?
Right now, the messaging is inconsistent. That’s for a reason: right now it’s not clear WHAT the message should be... I personally think Trump is wise in NOT choosing yet and watching things shake out for a month. August is a good time to really roll out “the” message.
Also agree, but for different reasons. I think it's best for President Trump to wait until he has a nominated candidate after the convention. I posted this at the end of April:
- While it might seem like the post-convention chaos of changing the nominee might hurt the Democrats, they are a lock-step hive mentality that will simply follow the replacement.
- Replacing Biden at the convention will give the Trump campaign a permanent candidate to craft a targeted strategic message that accentuates the President's accomplishments in contrast to the Democrat candidate's weaknesses.
- Replacing Biden closer to the election will force the Trump campaign to have to remessage their campaign. This runs the risk of the President's message becoming "old news" or "trite" or "stale" if it was deployed against Biden and then recrafted for a new candidate. It sets up President Trump for charges of being "cookie cutter," suggesting that he only has "one note" that seems weaker and weaker as he tries to play it against different people.
Now, I. DON’T. BELIEVE. POLLS. I’ve given up poll analysis, but Mike Sheppard on Twit still does it, and they are ALL D=5 to D=12 (yes, 12).
I haven't given up, but I don't decompose them; I forecast probabilities based on them. If someone does what statespoll.com did last cycle and "corrects" the polls publicly, I will use those in place of the published polls.
-PJ
Amen, Larry, here is what I say:
President Trump runs his campaign and staff much like a gold medal hockey team does. They generally have about three different shifts. Every 20 to 40 seconds a new shift comes on the ice as the other one goes off. It keeps the most important players fresh. I have no problem with this as it is putting in a fresh shift. This way the enemy can never figure out any weak points, and only sees strength. Sun Tzu. PDJT also does not surround himself with yes men, instead, more stable geniuses.
I don’t. And I don’t think that’s what this is about.
In case you forgot, Trump went through essentially FIVE campaign managers in 2016: Lewandowski, Manafort, Bannon, Conway, Parscale, with Jared always an unnamed manager.
Manafort was brought in right before the convention for one job only: get Trump’s delegates to stay in line. He succeeded. He was out within five weeks.
To this day, none of the “insiders” (including myself) who wrote about the 2016 campaign are sure who was actually directing things. It appeared to be management by committee, with scheduling generally handled by Conway, strategy/message by Conway and Bannon, then Parscale finding interesting data points like how close they were in WI, PA, and MI. Jared handled the finances like a pro, doing the campaign on a shoestring.
Right now, the messaging is inconsistent. That’s for a reason: right now it’s not clear WHAT the message should be-—whether the main target here is the economy and reopening or whether it’s BLM/antifa riots, or whether it’s a combo of the two with the Deep State thrown in.
I personally think Trump is wise in NOT choosing yet and watching things shake out for a month. August is a good time to really roll out “the” message. I have sent the campaign a suggestion for a “Justice for ALL” motif that would address the
*Injustice of destroying businesses through continued lockdowns
*Injustice of ordinary citizens in big cities afraid for their lives because of rioters
*Injustice of no-knock warrants (a sop to Libertarians and some on the left, and yes, you have to have SOMETHING that appeals to other than conservatives)
*Injustice of a two-tiered system of elites getting away with everything (the coupsters).
I think properly refined and focused, this message could be a real killer. But before it comes out, Trump must make sure that the citizens of the big blue cities are ready for it. They are alcoholics who haven’t quite reached “Leaving Las Vegas” levels yet. They must BEG for the help. (Not the mayors, the people). Also, I think the lockdowns will wear REALLY thin especially on parents who are nuts to get their kids out of the house and back to gubment schools.
Trump will have to carefully pit the “people” against their mayors and governors, which I think can be done. It will be trickier in TX and AZ where he needs local help to have rallies, etc. But the entire message must be framed as “In so many ways we’ve become a lawless, uncivil society. Time to take back our lives.”
Now, I. DON’T. BELIEVE. POLLS....................
Genius stuff, Larry, I read this audibly to my wife and she thinks so, too...not far from what PDJT is doing...we do agree his team is like a hockey shift...and a team, not one manager. I think the obvious thing here is the “manager” is PDJT himself, the others fill their specialty roles...it is a kitty laser pointer to “fire” Pascale”, and really, we’d believe PDJT will fire another campaign manager for more kitty tease effect between now and November... the usual Freeper “sky is falling” shallow thinkers will think their world if falling apart.
PDJT in my book is +15-20 right now.
“...right now it’s not clear WHAT the message should be-—“
I realize a campaign message is supposed to be simple and focused -,like MAGA, but I wonder if this year might be different.
The President’s Rose Garden address yesterday was the opposite of simple and focused. It was literally a long list of horrible things Biden is promising to do if elected.
But it sounded like a winning message to me and left me feeling extremely pumped up.
So, before we dismiss this “list” approach as being too unfocused for an effective campaign message, maybe we should consider the fact that the Declaration of Independence was also essentially a list of grievances, yet one of the most powerful messages ever delivered.
As President was going through the list, he seemed genuinely shocked that Biden would adopt such absurd and unpopular campaign positions.
At several occasions while reading the list of Biden’s stupid campaign promises, the President sighed, and said “think of it, the Biden campaign is really saying these things. I’m not making this up”.
The exasperated look on his face reminded me of Harrison Ford in the famous Sword vs Gun scene in Raiders of the Lost Ark.
As if to say, “Seriously? The Democrats are going to run against me by promising to raise taxes, kill jobs and defund the police?”
I know, a political message should be positive, not negative.
But not always. Ronald Reagan beat Carter with a decidedly negative campaign; the misery index, asking - “Are you better off than you were four years ago?”
“...right now it’s not clear WHAT the message should be-—“
I realize a campaign message is supposed to be simple and focused -,like MAGA, but I wonder if this year might be different.
The President’s Rose Garden address yesterday was the opposite of simple and focused. It was literally a long list of horrible things Biden is promising to do if elected.
But it sounded like a winning message to me and left me feeling extremely pumped up.
So, before we dismiss this “list” approach as being too unfocused for an effective campaign message, maybe we should consider the fact that the Declaration of Independence was also essentially a list of grievances, yet one of the most powerful messages ever delivered.
As President was going through the list, he seemed genuinely shocked that Biden would adopt such absurd and unpopular campaign positions.
At several occasions while reading the list of Biden’s stupid campaign promises, the President sighed, and said “think of it, the Biden campaign is really saying these things. I’m not making this up”.
The exasperated look on his face reminded me of Harrison Ford in the famous Sword vs Gun scene in Raiders of the Lost Ark.
As if to say, “Seriously? The Democrats are going to run against me by promising to raise taxes, kill jobs and defund the police?”
I know, a political message should be positive, not negative.
But not always. Ronald Reagan beat Carter with a decidedly negative campaign; the misery index, asking - “Are you better off than you were four years ago?”
Thanks for the ping.
Good points.
Parscale is the data/polling guy.
If President Trump was rolling out the stadium rally’s, then yes, Parscale should drive the bus and gather as much useful data as possible.
Now with rally’s on hold the campaign needs to adapt. therefore, put in a guy with the skills needed for the next few months
I think there are a lot of former RAT voters who are extremely turned off by the riots (but of course they won’t say so out loud).
And here’s another anecdote for you: My daughter’s boyfriend is a Bernie bro ... but he’s also a FLU-bro. Hahahahah! Says he won’t vote for Trump but WILL NEVER vote for any Democrat again because of their abuse of people who are simply trying to work for a living.