Posted on 07/10/2020 7:31:08 PM PDT by RandFan
Democratic Rep. Elissa Slotkin (Mich.), a first-term member who represents a district President Trump won by roughly 7 points in 2016, said that polls showing the president trailing former Vice President Joe Biden are “inaccurate.”
“I don’t believe it,” Slotkin told Politico Magazine when asked about recent polls showing Biden performing well in key swing states, such as Michigan. FiveThirtyEight currently has Biden nearly 10 points ahead of Trump in Slotkin’s state of Michigan.
The former CIA analyst said there are too many variables at play for a poll to accurately reflect what will happen in November.
“Listen, if anyone tells me they can accurately predict what major events are coming in the remainder of 2020, I’ll give them a thousand dollars,” Slotkin said. “I mean, this has been the year of black swans. … I don’t for one minute think this [presidential] race is safe in anyone’s column. I’ve been literally begging people to ignore those polls. They are a snapshot in time. And if 2020 has taught us anything, it’s that we have no idea what’s coming next.”
Slotkin, who was part of a wave of Democrats who won races in 2018, is considered one of the more vulnerable Democrats facing reelection this November. She was one of several swing district Democrats to face scrutiny from Republicans in her district over the House's impeachment vote.
Slotkins said when she hired a pollster in 2018, she used a tactic she learned while working at the Pentagon to probe them on why they didn’t accurately predict the results of the 2016 election.
“He told me that they fundamentally undercounted the Trump vote; that the Trump voter is not a voter in every single election, that they come out for Trump, so they’re hard to count,” Slotkin said of Al Quinlan of GQR, a large Washington-based polling firm.
Surveys often count people they determine are “likely voters,” but Slotkin learned that a person who tells a pollster that they don’t have plans to vote but may ultimately do so “were fundamentally undercounted.”
“I believe that same thing is happening right now,” Slotkin said.
Shhhhhhhh…..
McBook it, Danno. All it’ll take is one good Antifa chimp out on or around Election Day, and all your polls are belong to us.
All those freshmen democrats betrayed the people who voted for them. They voted for Pelosi, they voted for impeachment, they were rabidly leftists, not moderates and those voters need to show them the door.
We all know there are certain things that posters have difficulty accounting for.
One is voter enthusiasm, or predicting who is a likely voter. The vast majority of people who talked to pollsters say that they plan to vote, but historically voter turnout in presidential elections is often less than 60%.
And another issue is the shy Trump voter, who is reluctant to tell a stranger calling him on the phone that he supports Trump.
No way!
The Dems are about to fill their Diapers
Even if the Biden campaign also believes that, which they probably do, they can’t really change how they campaign, because of their candidate’s limitations.
It’s called the silent majority.
“I mean, this has been the year of black swans. … I don’t for one minute think this [presidential] race is safe in anyone’s column. I’ve been literally begging people to ignore those polls. They are a snapshot in time. And if 2020 has taught us anything, it’s that we have no idea what’s coming next!
A demo wakes up to challenge the fake polls from fake news!
The problem for Trump is this COVID nonsense.. He can’t hold his massive rallies which are so popular in certain states.
Polls are paid for by people who want to “advertise” a certain data outcome....right or wrong.
Simply refusing to play is as honest as I'll get.
Wow, a dem with half a brain.
The Rats pulled the same sham in 2006 as they did in 2018. Vote for us and we’ll be conservative. Yeah riiiight.
Everything theyve done to derail the election hasnt worked
They will beg china to sneak attsck us just to delay or screw up our election
Mark it, they are all traitors and would rather have the godless socialist un or china over us than any republican
Sanders is writing Biden’s policies.
That’s why he gave up on the nomination so easily because in reality he won.
True enough.
And this could be where Joe’s running mate becomes very important on the campaign trail.
We might see more campaigning done by the running mate than by Joe himself.
How the sample is selected will determine the accurracy of the poll. For years pollsters have used 50% Dems, 35% Reps and 15% Inds. They do not take in account the electoral votes. Hillary won the popular vote but Trump won the electoral vote. As the election gets closer, they will start adjusting the percentage so they can claim their poll was within the margin of error. Right now the pollsters along with MSM are trying to show Biden ahead hoping to discourage conservatives from going to the polls on election day.
Even Democrats don’t believe the polls.
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