Rats seem to churn out a poll showing them up in AZ every couple weeks.
But a gravis/OANN poll from late June shows Trump +4 with likely voters. Rats dismiss it because it was for OANN.
https://www.realclearpolitics.com/docs/2020/Gravis_Arizona_June_2020.pdf
You can see here it’s crosstabs, massive edge for Biden among non-2016 voters and Trump getting a surprising 24% of the Jill Stein vote, 22% of Blacks (less 5% of the state so I’m guessing very small sample size) and an extremely high 76% of Asians. The poll also has McSally up 4, and has her leading among blacks, if anything that’s worrying for suggesting such a wide gap among blacks in favor of Senator who generally runs about 4 or 5 points behind Trump in most polls.
I don’t know what to make of ANY polling right now, I figure differentials are more useful than the actual numbers......where is Cambridge analytica when you need it.
I know of no recent NV polling.
This poll is not right simply because McSally isn’t winning anywhere. I don’t doubt Trump is up. Probably not as high with the groups they say.
I think Trump by 5 in Az is about right, McSally loses by 2-4. She truly is a terrible candidate.
As for Biteme getting an edge in non-2016 voters, garbage. Everything we are seeing from Trafalgar and Baris says the opposite, unless this is all 18 year olds. Both Trafalgar and Baris saying that the “shy Trump” voter is now even in more numbers than in 2016 and both pollsters have people admit in the non-polling part they are Trump voters but don’t want to say so officially.
Finally last week Baris had the economy move in front of health as the #1 concern.